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| Middle East |
| Debka is in an apocalyptic mood today! |
| 2003-12-19 |
| Severely EFL 4. The United States and Islamic fundamentalist terrorist forces are both bracing for a decisive showdown in Iraq estimated to erupt in March-April 2004. Al Qaeda and the Iranian-backed Hizballah have secretly put their ace operative, Imad Mughniyeh, in place in Iraq to lead the Islamic side into battle as its chief of staff. Israel will not be left on the sidelines of this confrontation which could well peak in May or even June, six months hence. 5. As this showdown approaches, Washington is unlikely to let Syria continue to get away with furnishing its enemies in Iraq with arms and funds or shielding the Hizballah terrorists. The coming months are therefore expected to bring the Bush administration to its moment of truth with the Assad regime. 6. Within six months, Iran may have built itself a nuclear bomb â the most dangerous challenge of all to both America and Israel. All six processes are due to come to a head in roughly six months. This is the dynamic at the back of Sharonâs mind. When that happens, he expects the controversial terms âunilateral,â âdisengagement,â âseparation,â âredeployment of settlementsâ and even possibly âroad mapâ â in a word, his own bombastic Separation Plan - to fade into irrelevance. With Debka, I can never figure out if they are a couple of guys sitting around in their basement making stuff up or do have access to sources. I incline towards the former, but tend to agree with their analysis in this case. I think the Middle East is heading towards a crisis and either Syria or Iran will mis-calculate. The USA has gone past the point of no return in the region and I donât see how it can end before both the Syrian and Iranian regimes are gone. |
| Posted by:phil_b |
| #5 I've always thought the DEBKA guys are either 2 Israeli teenage boys who wear tin foil hats 24/7 and post from their Tel Aviv basement or they're incredible ex-Mossad military geniuses. But DEBKA creds or no, we can all see that the Road to peace has led to Baghdad and now leads to Tehran and Damascus, if not all the way to Beirut, too. There must be régime change in these countries around Iraq, but how that will go down--and yes, it will probably be in the next year--will be the interesting and fun part. I hope Fred is making the popcorn and the drinks! ;-) |
| Posted by: Jennie Taliaferro 2003-12-19 7:21:04 PM |
| #4 ...both the Syrian and Iranian regimes are gone. Gone, as in, 'overthrown,' gone, or 'vaporized,' gone? |
| Posted by: Glenn (not Reynolds) 2003-12-19 6:21:58 PM |
| #3 If "ace operative" Imad Mughniyeh is even involved, I can almost guarantee he will "lead" the "Islamic side" into "battle" from the comfort of his Lebanese hideout. There, that uses up my quota of sneer quotes for the day... |
| Posted by: Carl in N.H. 2003-12-19 6:16:17 PM |
| #2 Gaddafi's move might put more pressure on Syria. I would not be that pessimistic unless Assad is a real dumbo. I mean, he probably won't have enough time to grow a beard. You know, THAT kind of a beard... |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2003-12-19 6:03:22 PM |
| #1 A few months ago, John Loftus, a lawyer and former intelligence officer who has amazing intelligence contacts, said something to the effect that the US military invasion of Syria would occur in the Spring. The US wants to get Iraq's WMD, which are buried in Lebanon's (thus, Syria's) Bekaa Valley and in Syria at a site near Alleppo, and Assad's uncooperativeness (is that a word?) in controlling the infiltration of foreign fighters will be his downfall. He also said that Syria would fall in about three days to US forces. |
| Posted by: Tibor 2003-12-19 5:28:02 PM |