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Africa: North
U.S., U.K. Reach Deal With IAEA on Libya
2004-01-20
The United States and the U.N. atomic agency agreed Monday to work together in examining, cataloging and scrapping Libya’s nuclear weapons program, ending weeks of squabbling over who has the authority to do so. The deal was reached by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, senior British arms expert William Ehrman, and U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton, a critic of the IAEA policy on Libya and Iran.
Looks like we got more than we gave.
Following the meeting at the offices of the U.S. mission to the IAEA, ElBaradei said the agreement gave his agency the role of establishing the scope and content of Libya’s nuclear program. Once IAEA verification was complete, U.S. and British experts would remove suspect materials from the North African country, he said. Diplomats familiar with the agency said the IAEA also was claiming the right to verify that all contentious equipment and material had been removed or rendered unusable.
With us looking over their shoulders.
Differing characterizations of the state of Libya’s program had fueled the dispute: The IAEA has said Libya was nowhere near producing a weapon, while Washington and London contended it was further along than the agency realizes.
Has the IAEA ever been ahead of anyone in an assessment of a nation’s ability to make nukes?
Meanwhile, British and American weapons experts have returned to Libya, a senior U.S. official told The New York Times. But both sides were eager Monday to put the disputes behind them. "It was a very productive meeting especially after we quit thwacking them upside the head. I think we’re on the same page with the IAEA on this very important project," Bolton said after the session at the U.S. mission in Vienna. ElBaradei called the meeting "very constructive," adding: "I think it went very well.
Could you pass me four Advils?
"We have agreement on what needs to be done," he said. "Clearly, the agency’s role is very clear - that we need to do the verification. A good part of the program needs to be eliminated, it needs to be moved out, and we clearly need the British and American support with logistics."
And with intel, leadership and truth-telling.
Diplomats said both sides had made concessions, but suggested some differences remained. "The Americans are not interested in having their hands tied," said one, speaking on condition of anonymity. He said that while the agency would be given the mandate to verify the state of Libya’s weapons activities, U.S. and British teams would essentially also be conducting their own investigations.
Yep, we’re not real big on having our hands tied.
Posted by:Steve White

#4  I believe we call this a test. A test for the IAEA (as we already know what is in Libya and, apparently, Pakistan) to see if they have a clue.

Irrespective of how IAEA passes or fails this test, we will find out a great deal about Iran.
Posted by: john   2004-1-20 10:13:26 AM  

#3  I wonder if this has something to do with that article on Libya's black market purchases and how much they bought?
Posted by: Charles   2004-1-20 8:27:44 AM  

#2  Once IAEA verification was complete, U.S. and British experts would remove suspect materials from the North African country, he said. Diplomats familiar with the agency said the IAEA also was claiming the right to verify that all contentious equipment and material had been removed or rendered unusable.

Actually, it looks like they figure out what's there, we and the Brits go in to remove it, and then they determine if we did remove it. They get to finger point and tut-tut if they find out we blew it. A form of "oversight" that's more window dressing than substance.

He said that while the agency would be given the mandate to verify the state of Libya’s weapons activities, U.S. and British teams would essentially also be conducting their own investigations.

This leaves open the possiblity that we could further humiliate the IAEA if we find stuff they don't. Incentive for the IAEA to uncover everything and not hold back.

However, with the IAEA, the problem is less that they'd hold anything back than not having the competence to find everything in the first place. I was in grad school when I attended a lecture on international institutions to control atomic energy and nuclear weapons. The professors from the Nuclear Engineering department guffawed openly when the lecturer go to the IAEA: It appears to be regarded as a standing joke amongst those in the know.
Posted by: Ptah   2004-1-20 7:59:45 AM  

#1  Has the IAEA ever been ahead of anyone in an assessment of a nation’s ability to make nukes?

No. And it's a record that defies belief.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2004-1-20 7:51:45 AM  

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