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| The Prospects for Stability in Saudi Arabia in 2004 |
| 2004-02-24 |
| By Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman SAUDI-US RELATIONS INFORMATION SERVICE A cup of coffee and snacks are recommended when reading the full analyses. Only lead paragraph of each part is posted here. This (three part) analysis addresses the short-term stability of Saudi Arabia in 2004 and the steps the Kingdom must take in the mid and long-term to ensure its stability and development. The resulting risk assessment sees little immediate threat to the Kingdom’s stability, notes it has taken substantial steps to deal with terrorism, projects a good economic forecast for 2004, and describes a continuing process of economic reform. At the same time, it makes it clear that Saudi Arabia has only begun a process of counter terrorism and reform that must continue for years to come and that it must sustain such reform to remain stable and meet the needs of its people. A detail list of near and long term issues and problems is provided with special attention to economic and demographic issues. [Part I] Reducing the Threat of Terrorism One must be careful about overreacting to current events in Saudi Arabia, both in terms of terrorism and economics. The Kingdom has both short and long-term problems it must come to grips with. It must do more to fight terrorism, and it will not have another boom year like 2003 or experience any sustained reduction in its need for economic and social reforms. The regime, however, is scarcely at risk and short-term economic prospects remain good. This has several major impacts for U.S. and Western policy [Part II] The Saudi Economy in 2003 and 2004 The best forecasting of the Saudi economy in recent years has come from Brad Bourland of the Samba Financial Group. His forecast for 2004 in no way indicates that Saudi Arabia can afford to slack off on economic reform, but it also indicates that forecast oil revenues will create an economic climate favorable enough to have a stabilizing effect [Part III] The Issue of Political, Economic, and Social Reform The fact that Saudi Arabia has time is particularly important because it is in the process of significant political, economic, and social reforms. These reforms are still moving much too slowly – a grim reality that affects every country in the Arab world. At the same time, Saudi performance during 2003 is striking in that reform continued in spite of a massive increase in oil export revenues. During the year, Saudi Arabia sustained a process of reform that had begun to sharply accelerate shortly after Crown Prince Abdullah became the de facto leader of the government. |
| Posted by:GK |
| #6 OP - Agreed! I think tipping the Black Hats will be quite economical, in terms of boots - they're digging their own graves rather well, IMHO. In Saudi, the forces you describe would be overkill, bro! You could take the strip with the Colo Nat'l Guard and some local Boy Scouts, heh. '-) |
| Posted by: .com 2004-2-24 5:26:58 PM |
| #5 .com, I'm all for destabilizing the Saudi government in 2005, preferably with two Marine and two Army divisions, backed by naval and air support. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2004-2-24 3:36:01 PM |
| #4 It must do more to fight terrorism, and it will not have another boom year like 2003.. lol, al-Qaida Mission Statement? Making every year a boom year! |
| Posted by: john 2004-2-24 12:29:47 PM |
| #3 GK - Re: having a cow lick handy... Lol! Amen, bro. I got the feeling, reading it through again this morning, that you were baiting us - daring the RB crowd to dump on Cordesman! But either way - tons of stimulating goodies in there! One of the major things that galls me about the assumptions underlying the report content is that everything hinges on OPEC's ongoing rape of Western economies. $27-$36 bbl? WTF? If we weren't paying this exhorbitant price (just a 15% reduction would be a huge boon to the entire world economy) life would be a helluvalot better! Hell, even Phrawnce would have a snowball's chance of pulling out of its nosedive. So many factors like that kept pulling me away from his themes and assertions. Grrrr. Good thing there was no one around to hear me cuss it as I read it! This is "fun" stuff - and I'm glad you put it out there for discussion. During run-up and during the war I watched Jennings almost fellate Cordesman on the air - really disgusting display of softball queries and Royally-acceptable PR responses... You could say I've had a thing for Cordesman ever since... sorry to pounce on your post! My guesstimate: Royals will last between 2-5 more years before clerics / crazies send them packing - assuming no increases in Iranian-based AlQ fueding with Nayef and that he's actually in control of the Wahhabist imams. Funny to consider that we can extend the Royals' tenure dramatically if we tip over the Black Hats, too, removing the only real external threat other than the US to Royals... and that may happen by 2nd - 3rd Qtr 2005, IMHO. So many factors, so few neurons! I need more processing power - no surprise to you (and others, heh!) I'm sure! What's your scenario? |
| Posted by: .com 2004-2-24 10:10:50 AM |
| #2 . com, it's always good advice to have the salt shaker handy when reading anything that uses lotsa green banners or green ink. For example Cordesman leads Part III with "The fact that Saudi Arabia has time is particularly important because...." I'm not sure that S.A. (i.e the Saudi family) has that much time. Also, part III lists law after law that S.A. has adopted in attempts to reform, but when it came to human rights (Oct 2003)it seemed to be more of a suggestion. Much of which is contrary to Islam teachings, but sounds good to the American ear. Until your 40km plan is implemented we need to watch what is going on through our Rantburg bullshit filter. |
| Posted by: GK 2004-2-24 9:34:25 AM |
| #1 Sorry, GK, but I don't trust the source site nor have I agreed with Cordesman on several occasions in the past when ABC News has used him as an expert. He got almost everything wrong during the Iraq War, for example. I think he's a paid Saudi apologist. He is very quick to credit them - and very slow on the negatives. The site is an arm of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations -- and, I believe, yet another slick Saudi PR effort which has greased more palms in the US that Exxon has little ball bearings. As I've said before, I call it Friction Management. From the article: "It should be stressed that this chronology is drawn from Saudi government sources, although the broad factual nature of each event has been confirmed with U.S. experts. It does put the best face on many measures and exaggerates the degree to which they have been implemented to some extent. The Saudi government has also understated the level of arms and explosives flowing into the country in many of its official statements, although Saudi officials are much more frank on a private level." Apologies, but it's my take on these guys and on Cordesman - I just don't trust or believe either. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-2-24 2:05:27 AM |