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| Payroll survey shows many more jobs; household survery doesn’t |
| 2004-04-02 |
| The URL is the BLS summary site - you might as well get the original data rather than the big media coverage. This month was the reversal of several months at the end of 2003. The payroll survey showed a major increase in jobs, the household survey didn’t. The revised payroll surveys for Jan and Feb were also adjusted upward. A few more months like this and Kerry will be below 40%. From the BLS public notice Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 308,000 in March to 130.5 million, seasonally adjusted. The over-the-month increase in employment included gains in construction, retail trade, and health care and social assistance. The number of factory jobs was unchanged in March. Since August 2003, payroll employment has risen by 759,000. |
| Posted by:mhw |
| #11 Kerry even said some quasi rational things along with some other things ----------- WASHINGTON (AFP) - Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) welcomed figures released showing the creation of 308,000 jobs in March, but the Massachusetts senator blasted President George W. Bush (news - web sites)'s economic record. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-04-02 3:17:24 PM |
| #10 no this isn't true - skerry say's the economy sucks, unemployment is everywhere.....this is a fabricated after april fools joke....the dems say our economy is in the tubes I tell ya.... Actually I want to thank Bush. I am making 15k more a year than in the 90's and I am paying less tax than I did in the late 90's. Thanks for the tax relief. Go Figure On Skerry's Claims..... |
| Posted by: Dan 2004-04-02 1:57:28 PM |
| #9 Kerry: "Those SOB's at the BLS knocked me over!" |
| Posted by: Matt 2004-04-02 10:37:35 AM |
| #8 A lot of this could be catching-up. For the past year, the Household survey has shown a steady increase in employment, while the Establishment hasn't. This is different from previous recoveries. Now the two numbers are starting to close back to the normal ratio. While they could all be self-employed, I suspect there are a lot of companies that weren't represented in the previous Establishment surveys. The Establishment survey is always revised upwards several months later, while the household is corrected up or down randomly. |
| Posted by: Jackal 2004-04-02 10:22:56 AM |
| #7 crazyfool, the markets have already spoken, the DJ is way up and bond prices have been crushed (which by the way should reduce refinancings in a few weeks). Even the most anti Bush outlets (CNN, Al Jazzera, the Berkeley campus newsletter) have to report the markets. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-04-02 9:51:53 AM |
| #6 The media will quote the 308,000 number not the 5.7%. While the media is mostly biased towards liberals the 308,000 number is a much more impressive stat and will get them higher ratings than talking about a .1% move. They will mention the .1% increase in passing though. |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2004-04-02 9:49:53 AM |
| #5 Robert, Actually according to the household survey about 200,000 more people joined the work force which led to an increase in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 5.7%. I'm very leery of making conclusions because there are really many separate 'economies' each with its own dynamic. The west coast 'technology economy', the midwest 'logistics economy', the midwest 'farm service economy', the southern 'retirement service economy' all have their own tempo. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-04-02 9:47:38 AM |
| #4 So... which do you think the media will quote? The payroll survey or household survey? Remember, according to the media, we are still losing jobs hand-over-fist...... |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2004-04-02 9:46:45 AM |
| #3 This falls well within the margin of error for the household survey and you will see a lower unemployment rate from that survey in the coming months. |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2004-04-02 9:46:39 AM |
| #2 That shouuld be "less incentive". |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2004-04-02 9:43:33 AM |
| #1 This month was the reversal of several months at the end of 2003. The payroll survey showed a major increase in jobs, the household survey didn’t. My interpretation: with companies hiring, there's incentive to becoming self-employed. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2004-04-02 9:43:15 AM |