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China-Japan-Koreas
Chinese army preparing large-scale military exercises
2004-06-01
China is gearing-up for large-scale military wargames aimed at "taking control of the Taiwan Strait", with 18,000 troops and the amphibious landing of a tank brigade. China has become increasingly agitated with independence-leaning Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, and the report referred to the exercises as the first-ever aimed at "striving to control the Taiwan Strait." The 18,000 soldiers will be deployed from the land, navy and air force of the Nanjing Military Region, where some 500 short-range ballistic missiles are pointed at Taiwan. "Sukoi Su-27 fighter jets will be outfitted with KN59M guided air-to-surface missiles in an effort to maintain control over the Taiwan Strait and ensure that tank brigades can make a landing and engage in warfare," the report said.
First you have to get through Taiwan's SAM defenses and their fighters.
Submarines, war ships and a guided missile brigade would also be involved in the exercises that were to be led by Lieutenant General Huang Jiang, it said. Soldiers were deployed on Dongshan Island in mid-May where tanks and armoured personnel carriers had been practicing amphibious landings daily on Jinluan beach, it said. It was not clear if the exercises had already begun.
Posted by:Steve

#6  The wargames are part trial balloon and part intimidation. They want to see what our reaction and Taiwan's. If we put carriers in the area, they will take note, declare a successful exercise, go home and try another exercise in a couple of years. If we don't send a visible response, then one of their necessary cards for invasion, no carrier threats, is dealt.

The other card they need is no US submarine threat.

The performance of US and Chinese submarine forces is a wildcard. Our service is the one combat arm that remains unblooded since WWII. It's tactics and weapons have not been tested in combat. The same can be said of the Chinese.

I'll bet the two forces are and have been going head to head for a while now. We are probabaly raising hell with each other every day. Warshots are definitely loaded in the tubes and firing solutions loaded in the fire control computers. Tubes are flooded and muzzle doors are probably open. I'll bet there are some tight sphincters in the straits tonight. US commander's are probably worried they do not have enough weapons for all the targets. Perhaps that is part of the strategy. Overwhelm us with targets. We attack, the first targets die, they swarm on the datum point. The Soviets were always willing to trade us 1 for 1 in battle. If they could do that, then they could control the seas with their remaining 200 submarines. They always assumed we would get the first shot. Their doctrine was quick counter-fire before death.

What tricks and surprises each side has for each other is anybody's guess.
Posted by: Zpaz   2004-06-01 10:19:08 PM  

#5  china will need to land more than 18,000 troops and an amoured brigade...if it were for real they would chewed up in the first 24 hours...the chicoms need another 5-10 years to build the forces needed...unless they misread our military deployments and conclude they could get away with it..they would still be chewed up and thier economy would take a serious dump..

we need to ask ourselfs - is being able to buy cheap shoddy products worth the price? we are just filling their treasury for ams purchases!
Posted by: Dan   2004-06-01 1:04:25 PM  

#4  trouble for them is, the Chicoms would have to destroy Taiwan to capture it. Kill the goose and the golden egg... they'd be more successful trying to undermine from within, but then a non-capitalist Taiwan wouldn't be the same, would it? Ask Hong Kong
Posted by: Frank G   2004-06-01 12:50:36 PM  

#3  If they were convinced a Kerry Presidency would not interfere, they could perhaps nuke their way across the straits against an abandoned Taiwan.
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats   2004-06-01 12:04:44 PM  

#2  Chinese surface ship news.
http://tinyurl.com/3d2bm
Posted by: Anonymoose   2004-06-01 11:22:06 AM  

#1  those tanks won't do much good sitting on the bottom of the straits. Between Taiwan and our subs - the Chicoms don't have the capability to invade.
Posted by: Frank G   2004-06-01 9:56:07 AM  

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