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Futures: Not yet, but soon...
2004-06-18
Event: Third Hamas Leader dead
Group: Israeli forces
Narrative: Mahmoud Zahar, probably the current leader of Hamas, also gets killed by Israeli forces. Soon.
Window: 0 Months (6/19/2004)
Probability 85% entered by Aris Katsaris on 4/20/2004
Probability 89% entered by Steve from Relto on 4/21/2004
Probability 100% entered by tu3031 on 4/25/2004
Probability 100% entered by Atomic Conspiracy on 6/9/2004
Overall opinion is Highly Probable (94%)
Current opinion is Highly Probable (96%)
Posted by:Fred

#10  This reminds me, did anyone ever set up that "world events" game? You know, you pick a possible event and if it happens around when you say, you win, ahem, a wager?
Posted by: Anonymoose   2004-06-18 10:08:25 PM  

#9  I am sure Israel is still looking for him and when they find him, the 'car swarms' will be out in force in their bloodlust.
Posted by: Brett_the_Quarkian   2004-06-18 5:57:46 PM  

#8  B: gotta be careful with those three-martini merlot lunches!
Posted by: Mike   2004-06-18 4:18:11 PM  

#7  Hamasniks dont boom Israelis, Israelis dont need to assasinate Hamasniks (although failure to disarm them will still be held against PA) Ariel Sharon, reasonable pragmatist.
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2004-06-18 2:48:44 PM  

#6  ha, ha...I guess I had more to drink than I realized!!
Posted by: B   2004-06-18 2:47:50 PM  

#5  The reason this prediction didn't hit is that Hamas is pretty heavily damaged -- their leadership gets whacked in response to big-time attacks and either they haven't been capable of staging one or Zahar isn't letting them, in the interest of waking tomorrow morning able to take a deep breath. See today's linked Krauthammer article.
Posted by: Fred   2004-06-18 2:42:37 PM  

#4  wow! Someone fixed that already!! You guys are GOOD!!
Posted by: B   2004-06-18 2:38:37 PM  

#3  double - triple duh!! I should not drink wine at lunch!! I accidently hit 0%, so I entered 100% to negate it... AND changed my mind, lowering odds to 90%.
Posted by: B   2004-06-18 2:36:19 PM  

#2  oops..duh!
Posted by: B   2004-06-18 2:28:08 PM  

#1  95%
Posted by: B   2004-06-18 2:27:54 PM  

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