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Arabia
Looks like a deal is in the Magic Kingdom
2004-06-30
Read between the lines on this one - it looks to me like al-Awaji and the other clerics who were the first ones calling for "dialogue" in the wake of the initial Riyadh bombings have won the day, hence the amnesty offer.
The recently announced appointment of a "relatively mild" figure to lead Al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and the repeated Saudi crackdown on the group will lead to a breakthrough in the crisis that has destabilized the kingdom, according to an Islamist engaged in efforts to end the violence.
"Relatively mild"? What's he do? Sedate his victims before cutting their heads off?
Mohsen al-Awaji, who has been meeting with extremists in efforts to restore security and stability in the kingdom, said he expected an easing in tensions in Saudi Arabia due to Saleh al-Oufi’s "calm" personality.
"Calm for a wahhabi, of course..."
Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network has announced on its websites that Oufi, a former police officer, would succeed Abdel-Aziz al-Muqrin, who went toes-up was killed with three of his aides by security forces in Riyadh almost two weeks ago, as the new leader Al-Qaeda cells in Saudi Arabia. "I know Oufi in person and I have met him three times long before Muqrin was killed," Awaji told The Daily Star. "His personality is not like that of Muqrin." Muqrin was a hardened militant, who fought in Bosnia against the Serbs and Croats from 1992 to 1995, frequently traveled to Afghanistan between 1990 and 1994 and took part in the fight against the Americans during the US-led war on Afghanistan in November 2001. He was imprisoned in Ethiopia in 1995 after allegedly belonging to a hit squad that tried to assassinate visiting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. "He was harshly tortured ... and developed a desire to satisfy a thirst for revenge," said Awaji, who made it clear he was not representing the Saudi government in his talks with extremists despite its "blessings" for efforts to reach a solution. "Oufi fought abroad but has no such vengeful personality, and was never imprisoned," said Awaji about the 38-year-old man, who is ranked No. 5 on a Saudi list of 26 most-wanted militants. "I think there will be a breakthrough in the crisis."

But Oufi’s perceived milder personality did not convince others that he would make a significant change in the way Al-Qaeda operates in Saudi Arabia. "Whether in Afghanistan, Iraq or Saudi Arabia, Al-Qaeda has one method: terrorizing Westerners and Americans," said Khaled Mutrafi, the director of the Dubai-based Al-Arabiyya channel in Saudi Arabia. "I don’t think the method will really differ now," said Mutrafi, who has been covering Al-Qaeda for Saudi newspapers since it was established in Afghanistan in 1988. Abdel-Aziz al-Qassem, a lawyer close to Islamist circles, argued that Oufi, Muqrin and the previous two figures who headed the group in Saudi Arabia before they were killed by security forces were merely "field commanders" and lacked the qualities of leaders.
That's why he was replaced as soon as he was bumped off. The real commanders aren't named. They live in mosques.
Muqrin took charge of Al-Qaeda in the kingdom after his predecessor, Khaled Haj, was killed in March this year. Haj succeeded Youssef al-Ayeeri, who was killed in a raid on the Qaseem Province near Riyadh in June 2003.
Not a real good life expectancy in that job, is there?
"They (Al-Qaeda leaders) failed to come up with clear objectives, which was why they were carrying out vengeful attacks rather than ones that would lead to political gains," said Qassem. "That’s why they do not constitute a political threat as much as a security threat."
Rumor had it — and it was discussed on these pages — that Binny or his successors disagreed with the tactics of an offensive in Arabia at this moment...
The blow to Al-Qaeda with the killing of Muqrin and his aides on June 18 has not destroyed the group, according to Mutrafi. "There is no way that the last strike against them has resulted in finishing the group. We shouldn’t rule out that they will come back again," Mutrafi said. But Awaji said the killing of Muqrin and his deputy Faisal al-Dokheil, have deprived the group of significant experience in fighting and planning. In addition, continued Saudi efforts to clamp down on militants have resulted in the seizure of huge caches of weapons, such as rifles, pistols, hand grenades, mortars, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and tons of explosives.
Plenty more where those came from, though. Weaponry never seems to be a problem, does it?
Saudi authorities say weapons are mainly smuggled across the kingdom’s porous southern mountain border with Yemen. "Oufi is now a leader of the remnants of this damaged ship and those in it need help to survive. That’s why the Saudi amnesty offer came at the right time," said Awaji.
Posted by:Dan Darling

#13  rabidfox: Sounds like the Saudis are pulling back when they should be attacking.

The Saudis aren't fighting al Qaeda because they like us and hate the jihadis. In reality, they hate us and love the jihadis, except when the jihadis are threatening them. But fundamentally-speaking, we, not the jihadis, are perceived as the enemy. The current violence is basically a temporary falling-out between friends. Given the media's spin that Americans deserve to be killed by jihadis for what the media perceives to be American transgressions, it's only a matter of time before Saudi-sponsored terrorists renew their terror campaign on American soil. Saudis probably think that like the media, Americans will be so guilt-ridden that they will blame GWB instead of fingering the appropriate culprits - terrorists supported by Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2004-06-30 4:35:47 PM  

#12  Far as I can tell, it's all old news. The only thing remotely different is that the Royals have been slightly more open about their opposition to al Qaeda, but that is all PR. Big money is still changing hands and going straight into al Qaeda's pockets. Amnesty offers demonstrate what sort of "resolve" we can expect from the Saudis. The Wahabbist clerics are still spewing their anti-American bile and it remains open season on all Westerners. What's any different?
Posted by: Zenster   2004-06-30 4:01:11 PM  

#11   Nayef and Sultan are in cahoots, IIRC.

As far as Louis (sometimes spelled Lewis) goes, there's not much on the guy except that he's a Western-educated Saudi cleric, a member of the Supreme Council of Global Jihad, and does the real deep thinking while folks like al-Oufi and al-Muqrin handle the dirty work of killing infidels.

As far as al-Muqrin's relative status within al-Qaeda, he knew where all the cells were inside the Kingdom, was chummy with the rank and file security forces, ect. Positions aren't too fixed within al-Qaeda and he had a lot of clout within the network because he part of the hit squad that had nearly whacked Mubarak. All the same, bad as al-Muqrin was he didn't come even close to what al-Adel or Louis could call upon at a moment's notice.

To give you an idea, here's a look at what al-Adel was originally planning to take place along with the first Riyadh bombings.

I hope that puts things in perspective.
Posted by: Dan Darling   2004-06-30 2:31:50 PM  

#10  Talk, talk, blab, blab.
A deal is in... sheesh.
Didn't you dinks go to school?
It' the FIX, the FIX is in.
deal, shmeal.

Posted by: Mayor D   2004-06-30 1:30:04 PM  

#9  LH: Try putting "Louis Allah" in the Rantburg search engine.
Posted by: 11A5S   2004-06-30 1:04:48 PM  

#8  Louis Attiyat Allah

any open source background on this guy?

So Muqrin was forward leaning too much?? So he used no outside resources I presume? While this makes more sense grand strategically (concentrate on Iraq) its hard for me to see from here how Muqrin controlled the Saudi AQ resources to do all the attacks if the real Mr. Big was someone else who had a different plan.

Quite confused - but then both AQ and KSA are byzantine, so im not ashamed:)
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2004-06-30 12:52:47 PM  

#7  I've posted that I figured Abdullah had better proceed with a coup or the conspiring Sudairis (Nayef + Turki + ?) will bring him down - and then hope to pick up the pieces successfully. IIRC Sultan, as Fahd's closest ally and personal choice to succeed him - in spite of making (allowing?) Abdullah the CP, doesn't seem actively complicit.

So a time estimate and winner prediction? Wanna venture that far out into the void? Lol!

I admit I thought the Royals would "fall" by now - I told expat friends I predict 18-24 months - about 18 months ago, so I'm obviously off the mark regards the resilience of the Royals in spite of this little family squabble.
Posted by: .com   2004-06-30 12:35:06 PM  

#6   I actually think that Nayef and Saif al-Adel are running parallel to one another on this one. Both want the clown prince out and Nayef controls the security forces, while al-Adel controls the al-Qaeda org in the Magic Kingdom. There's a good deal of overlap between the two, since in many cases the security forces and the al-Qaeda cannon fodder are the exact same people.

Remember, al-Adel's original plan for Riyadh in May 2003 was for the assassination of some princes, including perhaps Abdullah. That part didn't work but the expat boomings happened and it was too overt for even the Saudis to just dump off on alk runners. That led to the faux "crackdown," which netted just enough baddies for the rank-and-file like al-Muqrin (who isn't even the real capo in the Kingdom and neither is al-Oufi, that honor belongs to Louis Attiyat Allah) to start booming places like the Lebanese Christian compound and more recently the attacks on Yanbu and al-Khobar. When that didn't produce the Revolution b/c Louis and Nayef still had their deal (hence the reason none of the moneymen or clerics have been jugged), al-Muqrin started kidnapping Westerners and really causing the shit to hit the fan for the princes. So he got whacked and now there's a new deal on thanks to the holy men, abeit an odd one given today's events.
Posted by: Dan Darling   2004-06-30 12:13:04 PM  

#5  To imagine what a Kerry administration would do, just remember the Clinton administration. The one thing that the Clinton years taught us was that although you could buy a Democrat, you couldn't be sure he wouldn't sell you out if he got a better offer. Kerry would do whatever the highest bidder wanted while denying it vehemently. Weasels don't change their ways.
Posted by: RWV   2004-06-30 11:54:00 AM  

#4  Thx, Dan. That's the most cogent description I've seen - thx!

So Nayef sacrificed a few pawns when his game began to infringe upon the turf of others. Being a Royal means never having to say you're sorry, heh.

There is nothing to compare to the Saudi PR machine. Just one month's outlay would make everyone at RB independently wealthy.

When this domestic political insanity finally passes the Nov election, not that the screeching will actually dissipate (I'm not anywhere near that optimistic) - just shift gears - then (if re-elected) Bush can ratchet up the pressure on the Saudis. Anyone actually believing that Skeery would do it is dreaming, IMO.

Sooner or later, the reckoning will come. Sooner works for me. Saudi's Byzantine internecine squabbles are expensive - in money, lives, security - for everyone but the Royals. As with the UN, it's time to kill off the Special Relationship, used against us since 1973.
Posted by: .com   2004-06-30 11:36:23 AM  

#3   That's more or less the way I read it, .com

My guess is that al-Muqrin and Co moved to fast, the rest of the leadership knows it, so they reached another agreement with the princes using the holy men as in-betweens and now there's an amnesty and everything's just peachy again. This also provides the Saudis' a nice way to publicly say the threat of terrorism was ended by the amnesty while going back to the good old days when the princes did, well, pretty much what they're doing now, just more covertly ...
Posted by: Dan Darling   2004-06-30 11:12:55 AM  

#2  Sounds like the Saudis are pulling back when they should be attacking.
Posted by: rabidfox   2004-06-30 10:26:17 AM  

#1  Between the lines, I think I get the message that if the Bad Boyz will return to just killing infidels outside the Magic Kingdom, a return to pre-May 12, 2003 conditions, then the Saudis will look the other way.

Dan? Care to put your between-the-lines thoughts out there?
Posted by: .com   2004-06-30 10:14:02 AM  

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