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| Russia |
| Weak federal authority in Vladivostok |
| 2004-07-29 |
| The capital city of Russia's Primorskiy Krai ("Maritime Territory") lived up to its wild reputation during the recent mayoral elections. The winner of the 18 July second round, Vladimir Nikolaev, is a convicted felon who served 3 1/2 years in prison for beating up one Primorskii Krai legislator and threatening to murder another. Numerous local and national media reports have described Nikolaev as a mid-level gangster, known in the criminal world as "Winnie the Pooh." Funny. Oh, wait. He's a brutal thug. Never mind. [Snip, but read it all] Why is the situation in Vladivostok still so clearly out of control despite the attention the city has received from the federal authorities -- including Putin himself? Could it be that the federal center's ability to project its power and influence is more limited than most observers imagine? Spot on, plus she makes the point that the less urban provinces are even worse than this. My point: Russia is much, much more fragile now than it was even during the early Yeltsin years. Its infrastructure has had an extra decade to decay, the regional governors (to quote Peter Cushing) now have direct control over their territories (despite Putin's federal overseers), the general populace is more disillusioned than ever, nationalists are freaking over developments in the "Near Abroad" (more trouble in Transdneister and Georgia, U.S. bases popping up everywhere, etc.), and Chechnya has surpassed Afghanistan in both temporal duration and its devastating effect on Russian morale. Most disturbing of all (to me) is that the entire Russian state now seems to hinge on the life of one man. Yeltsin's antics could be frightening, but at least you knew that advisors lurking in the proverbial shadows would take over had the guy keeled over and died (which, minus the death, is basically what happened). Not so with Putin. After the near-invisible Mikhail Kasyanov, the Prime Minister's office has all but shut down. So who's next in line if a car bomber gets lucky or Vasha's chopper crashes? My prediction would be a messy and televised power struggle, ending with a spastic attempt at reasserting strong federal (probably military) rule, prompting remote or majority non-Slavic regions to leave Moscow's orbit entirely, especially those whose geography favored Chinese patronage. Cool idea for a Clancy novel ... shitty thing to wake up to on the news. One other thing, could one of the mods please paste the whole article onto Page 71? RFE/RL changes this link daily around noon Central Time. Thanks. And yes ... the article is longer than my comments. Sorry. |
| Posted by:Another Dan |
| #6 The mother of all failed states? The chaos is spreading. |
| Posted by: virginian 2004-07-29 5:41:27 PM |
| #5 Beat me to it, tu3031... |
| Posted by: Raj 2004-07-29 1:31:43 PM |
| #4 Good stuff AD. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-07-29 12:30:55 PM |
| #3 Sounds just like Providence. |
| Posted by: tu3031 2004-07-29 11:50:42 AM |
| #2 i agree liberal hawk well said |
| Posted by: smokeysinse 2004-07-29 11:16:38 AM |
| #1 actually pretty good comments, thanks. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-07-29 10:55:21 AM |