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Afghanistan/South Asia
Pashtun join hands with the Baloch in Balochistan
2004-08-20
The establishment is trying to figure out whether the Pashtun will join up with the Baloch in the event of a full-scale military operation against Islamabad
The Baloch nationalist leader Sardar Attaullah Mengal is not mincing his words nowadays. Last week he was in Islamabad and declared open war on Pakistan army and the Frontier Corps.
How'd he make it home alive?
Was it just bluster?
Is that a trick question?
The military top brass and the interior ministry don't think so. Small wonder that officials are in a clutch debating the many alarming questions the situation in Balochistan presents to Islamabad. The hot question for the establishment is whether the army and the paramilitary should launch a full-fledged military operation in Balochistan a la 1974 to flush out the "miscreants" Sources in the interior ministry say Islamabad is looking back at that period and trying to draw lessons. "We don't want any surprises and we certainly do not want this thing [an operation] to backfire," says a high official.
The Baluchistan insurgency is heating up again. Inspired by the independance of Bangladesh a few years earlier, the Baluchs launched a seperatist campaign which was crushed by the Army. It's possible Afghanistan is playing a covert role here to pay Pakistan back for supporting Taliban and Hek.
Yet another question being debated in the official circles is the likely reaction of the Pashtun nationalists to a military operation in Balochistan? Will the Pashtun activists, who have been traditionally fighting the Baloch, join the armed resistance unleashed by the Baloch or will they step aside and let the Baloch fight the army? In the seventies the Pashtun had stayed away from the insurgency. "That may not be the case now," says an observer who thinks the common cause could be the bad deal given the province by Islamabad. Some officials say the government is receiving mixed signals from the Pashtun nationalist forces, particularly since the start of the 'limited military operation' in Balochistan in the wake of the violence. The troubling fact for Islamabad is that this is the first time the Baloch and the Pashtun have jointly launched a struggle for their rights. "This bothers the government. It's better to keep them divided. The establishment doesn't like the fact that the two warring ethnic groups have joined hands on the platform of the Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement," says an analyst. This fact, confirm official sources, has so far blocked any major decision on the military operation in Balochistan.
The PONM consists of the Balochs, Pashtuns, Sindis and Serakis; who are opposed to the Punjabis who have dominated the army and bureaucracy since independance, although Musharraf isn't a Punjabi.
Posted by:Paul Moloney

#5  Thanks, Paul. I've all but given up on understanding all of the factions and tribal / ethnic groups in Pakistan... so when I see a story like this (which sounds ominous for what passes for stability there) I can't tell how serious it is. The roster of players is the ultimate alphabet soup - and a full-time job! You must have a huge spreadsheet or DB to track these guys. And I don't know whether to marvel at Musharraf's staying power or wonder at his sanity for wanting to be in the spot he's in - President / Dictator - whatever it is, heh.

You make sense out of chaos - and that's no mean feat. Thanks, again!
Posted by: .com   2004-08-20 10:12:15 PM  

#4  They were Kuwaitis of Baluch descent. The only Islamofascism in Baluchistan comes from the Pashtun migrants and Afghan refugees who number in the millions in the area.
Posted by: Paul Moloney   2004-08-20 8:20:51 PM  

#3  Isn't Baluchistan where KSM, Ramsey Clark Yosef and the other original WTC bombers came from? Doesn't Laurie Mylroie make it the center of militant anti western Islamofascism?
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-08-20 7:33:50 PM  

#2  The PONM has nothing to do with Islamism, in fact of the ethnic groups involved in it, only the Pashtuns have any serious problem with extremism, the rest are known for following Sufi style Islam and avoiding Jihadi groups.

It is just ethnic-based nationalism, but probably doesn't provide any real threat to the Pakistani state, since the Army is half a million strong and showed in Bangladesh that they will not let any region of Bangladesh secece without a fight.

So I would consider these sentiments unrelated to the WoT, and yet it is hardly a positive development.
Posted by: Paul Moloney   2004-08-20 7:29:47 PM  

#1  Has this got legs, Paul? I've been thinking about this all day, off and on, and realized I'd better get my question there before you conk out for the day!

Just when it seems that Musharraf is really pressing and having serious success in WoT...

Can you say how much or little of the sentiment behind this is related to Musharraf's support for WoT? Are we defining true PakiWaki Islam in PONM? Or is this just factionalism, power-base politics, etc?
Posted by: .com   2004-08-20 5:09:52 PM  

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