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| -Short Attention Span Theater- | |
| Florida Readies for Frances | |
| 2004-09-01 | |
| EFL: Thousands of people were told Wednesday to get ready to evacuate as powerful Hurricane Frances crept closer to Florida just weeks after Hurricane Charley's rampage. It would be the worst double hurricane strike on one state in at least a century. Generators were hefted off store shelves, along with water, canned goods and other emergency supplies as forecasters warned the core of the Category 4 storm with 140 mph wind was due near Florida late Friday or early Saturday. Charley left billions of dollars in damage and 27 people dead after it swept across the peninsula Aug. 13. The Kennedy Space Center planned to close Thursday and Friday to allow workers time to board up their homes and evacuate if necessary, said NASA spokesman George Diller. Helicopters and planes left Patrick Air Force Base. In Stuart about 100 miles north of Miami, Martin County planned to urge up to 7,500 residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon Thursday. Brevard County told at least 50,000 residents they should start evacuating mobile homes and low-lying areas Thursday afternoon. "I can't emphasize enough how powerful this is. If there's something out there that's going to weaken it, we haven't seen it," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said. Craig Fugate, director of the state Division of Emergency Management, said steps were being taken for to prepare for large-scale evacuations, including possibly reversing lanes of some highways to accommodate fleeing coastal residents. Frances was nearing the Bahamas with steady strength, but it was expected to fluctuate in intensity and could become a Category 5 storm with top sustained winds of 156 mph or higher, forecasters said. The storm could hit anywhere from South Florida to South Carolina as early as late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extended up to about 80 miles from Frances' center, making it about twice the width of Charley and increasing the possibility for damage, forecasters said.
At 2 p.m., Frances was centered about 60 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island southeast of the Bahamas and 700 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach. It was moving west-northwest at around 15 mph. With landfall possible on the Atlantic Coast from one end of the state to the other, wary officials watched the clock and forecasts as they grew more refined. Some schools in coastal districts already decided to close Thursday and Friday. | |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #20 I second Frank G - please heed any warnings if you even think you're in Frances' path. Two more bodies were found here today as some of the water recedes. Be careful, Floridians. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2004-09-01 10:35:15 PM |
| #19 Any Floridians - take care, prepare, and evacuate if they tell you to (I know, easier said than done - I finally did during last year's San Diego Cedar Fires, after the hills 200 yds away were on fire.) Keep us posted, and our prayers are with you |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-09-01 10:04:09 PM |
| #18 "To wit: Head for the hills!" Lol! What hills? Hell, you gotta run all the way to Georgia to find a bump in the road! Serious side: Plz take care all you Floridians - East Coasters. I think we lucked out with Barbara coming through Gaston okay. Too close. Gotta have all of you back ASAP to help defend RB, heh! If someone gets in trouble, don't hesitate to post a note here whenever you get a chance. Think WiFi laptops & Starbucks (or wherever). |
| Posted by: .com 2004-09-01 9:40:39 PM |
| #17 I think the Nole Cast is wrong for the first time. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-09-01 5:33:51 PM |
| #16 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. Leave your mobile/modular housing now. Prepare to leave the coast from Cape Canaveral to Brunswick. To wit: Head for the hills! Happily for Florida the forecast track keeps moving north.... |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-09-01 5:31:57 PM |
| #15 Barbara and Seafarious, many thanks :-) Observing the OSCE observing might not be such a bad idea indeed. |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-09-01 5:22:28 PM |
| #14 chainey bribed france |
| Posted by: mucks halfwit assistant 2004-09-01 5:17:29 PM |
| #13 Halliburton Hurricane Repair™ at the ready, sir! |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-09-01 5:02:34 PM |
| #12 P.S. My apologies to all the Floridians in harm's way, whose thread I've hijacked. Good luck and I'll throw some change in the Red Thingy tip jar, for both you and Richmond. |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-09-01 5:00:39 PM |
| #11 TGA, please send me a note if you're coming Stateside. And your presence is extra-necessary if the OSCE is an anti-Bush tool. Someone's gotta watch the watchers. Make sure you get a really good hotel room, a double-plus luxury car, and lobster every night while you're here. George Soros & company won't mind picking up the tab! |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-09-01 4:58:58 PM |
| #10 LOL, TGA. If you decide to observe, see if you can arrange a few days in Virginia, the mother of Presidents and Capital of the Confederacy. Drinks are on me. :-p |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2004-09-01 4:56:38 PM |
| #9 It's entirely possible. I am routinely asked to participate in election observations (Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, Romania etc.) but haven't done so for years. Although in this case I'd have to look into the political implications. If there is a chance that the OSCE is instrumentalized by the Anti Bush camp, I won't have any part in that. Good luck with that hurricane though. It's all Bush's fault. You know, it's the secret CIA special weather operation to damage Florida so that Bush can look good providing swift help. Mucky will explain chainey's role in all that. |
| Posted by: True German Ally 2004-09-01 4:46:47 PM |
| #8 JFM!!! And then we kidnap him and not let him return, heh. He belongs in the US! |
| Posted by: .com 2004-09-01 4:28:17 PM |
| #7 RC, Florida is getting ready for Hurricane Frances. But you knew that. :-) |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-09-01 3:22:24 PM |
| #6 The "Rantburg Ready Response" European election observers: TGA, Bulldog, Howard, Shep, Dutchgeek and the dude from Brussels Blog. (Apologies to anyone I've left out.) Also Rafael, Canuck, the rest of the Canadiens on duty at the RB Center for International Studies and Expense Account-Padding. |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-09-01 3:19:42 PM |
| #5 Readies for France's what? |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2004-09-01 3:16:27 PM |
| #4 Sea - Oops - night before last... Link... See comment #8. I'm sure he'd have a great time - assuming he didn't have to hang out with people like Alcee Hastings, heh. And that's where you could save the day! I hereby nominate you to be the Official RB Observer of the 2004 Florida Vote, heh. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-09-01 3:11:42 PM |
| #3 Sea - he said it was a possibility last night - don't recall which thread at the moment. I'll update with a link if / when I locate it. And yeah, it would be beyond cool! Mebbe we should plan a field trip to Florida, lol! |
| Posted by: .com 2004-09-01 2:46:01 PM |
| #2 TGA is coming to the US? Are you gonna be one of the "international observers" at our elections? That would be awesome! |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-09-01 2:42:46 PM |
| #1 TGA - Just think, you might get to "see" a hurricane when you come to Florida! Won't that be a hoot? Perhaps the vote will end up being a back-page story... Lol! |
| Posted by: .com 2004-09-01 2:32:48 PM |
