Despite Kremlin assertions of al Qaeda involvement, Western security officials and experts say it is homegrown Chechen militancy that is driving a wave of attacks inside Russia.
| The two are exclusive, y'know. If you've got one, the other runs away... |
The seizure of at least 120 children and adults as hostages at a school in Russia's north Caucasus on Wednesday did not resemble a classic al Qaeda operation, although it did fit a long pattern of Chechen rebel attacks on targets like hospitals.
| It fits in with Basaev's tactics. |
More imitative of al Qaeda's style was the simultaneous downing of two airliners last week, apparently blown apart in mid-air by suicide bombers who smuggled explosives on board. "Two civilian aircraft were brought down by terrorist organisations with links to al Qaeda," President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday, noting that a group claiming ties to Osama bin Laden's network had claimed responsibility. The same group, the Islambouli Brigades -- named after the assassin of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat -- also claimed an attack by a female suicide bomber that killed 10 people and injured 51 at a central Moscow metro station on Tuesday. But a European security source said the claims, posted in Arabic on an Islamist Web site, could not be taken as authentic. In particular, the group's statement that there were five attackers aboard each plane was seen as fanciful because the evidence suggested a single female bomber in each case.
| You mean Islamists lie? When did that start? |
The source said there was little evidence of current operational links between Chechen rebels and al Qaeda, beyond the fact that many of the separatist fighters had trained at one time in bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan.
| Yep. Right on schedule... |
"Up to this point, the Chechen rebels have concentrated entirely on Russian targets and never made al Qaeda's goals their own. We characterise it still as domestic terrorism," the source said.
| I characterize it as international terrorism. There are regular cross-border actions into Ingushetia, Dagestan, and Georgia. There was the Arab presence, headed by the late al-Walid and the even later al-Khattab. There are the ties to Zarqawi and and the purported presence of Kabab under Chechen protection. There's the provision of training to Euroterrorists. There are the calls to Arabia during the Nord-Ost siege. There were the Chechen killers at Konduz and in South Waziristan. Most telling, to me, is the fact that they pray for the Chechens every Friday in all the best mosques in Soddy Arabia, along with the Paleostinians, the Kashmir Killers, and all the other "heroic mujaheddin"... |
Moscow, by contrast, has long insisted that its struggle to crush the separatists is part of the wider war on international terrorism, and has used this as an argument to deflect criticism of its uncompromising tactics. Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov told reporters in Germany earlier this year that operational and financial links between Chechen rebels and al Qaeda had long ago been proven, and Moscow would "calmly and systematically" destroy the separatists. He said foreign fighters, particularly Turks, were still active in Chechnya and Russian 'spetsnaz' commandos were killing several a month. Security analysts contacted by Reuters noted that Chechen militants and al Qaeda -- which grew out of the 1980s mujahideen resistance to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan -- were united by Islamist ideology and common hatred of Moscow. Chechnya features sometimes in statements issued by bin Laden. But they were generally cautious about the extent of al Qaeda involvement in the latest attacks. "I certainly would not rule out that there was some component of al Qaeda support. But I think for Putin to suggest that this is al Qaeda proper operating on their doorstep is overstating the case," said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management in London.
| I disagree. I think most readers here would, though the Washington Post wouldn't... |
The school siege, in which attackers were threatening to kill 50 children for each of their own fighters killed, was seen as a purely Chechen operation. "The attack on the school today has all the hallmarks of (Chechen warlord) Shamil Basayev," said Nick Pratt, retired U.S. colonel and director of security studies at the Marshall Centre in Germany. Nihat Ali Ozcan, an independent security analyst in Turkey, said the targeting of children was untypical for Islamist militants outside Chechnya. "In Chechen culture women and children are easily and often used or targeted, but other radical Islamists tend to try and avoid targeting them," he said. |
