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Home Front: WoT
Arrest of bin Laden closer than ever, U.S. official says
2004-09-04
I thought they were going to trot him out for the convention?
A U.S. counterterrorism official said here Friday that nearly 75 percent of the al-Qaida terror network's senior leadership has been eliminated and the capture of its fugitive chief, Osama bin Laden, is closer than ever. Cofer Black, U.S. State Department coordinator for counterterrorism, told a select group of journalists that the arrests of hundreds of al-Qaida activists and members of its top hierarchy by Pakistan have brought the arrest of bin Laden closer. "If you are asking if we are close to getting OBL, the answer is yes," he said, when asked whether the large-scale arrests are leading to the capture of bin Laden, the prime suspect in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. "Our president (George W. Bush) has said we will arrest Osama bin Laden. It is guaranteed," he said, adding it could happen tomorrow, in a week or a month from now.
Hopefully not longer, though I'll bet it is. And what's this "arrest" stuff?
Black, a former CIA agent, spoke after attending a meeting between Pakistani and U.S. officials on counterterrorism, in which they discussed matters relating to terrorism, narcotics and capacity building in the two fields. Black denied suggestions that Washington has tasked Islamabad with the arrest of bin Laden. "The United States does not give tasks to Pakistan. Pakistan is an independent and sovereign state," he said.

A statement issued by the Foreign Ministry said that during the two days of talks, both sides expressed their satisfaction with the level of cooperation and reaffirmed their determination to improve such efforts and work closely in the mutual interest of both countries. "Hundreds of al-Qaida killers have been removed from the scene and innocent people made safe," Black said, while lauding the role of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistani government in killing and arresting a large number of terrorists in an ongoing crackdown on terror.
Posted by:tipper

#25  
I think maybe someone turned Bin Laden in for the $25 million reward. If so, the secret could be confined to a very small number of people.
.
Posted by: Mike Sylwester   2004-09-04 10:25:47 PM  

#24  Uh-huh.

"The police expect to make an arrest soon."

Where have I heard that before, and under what circumstances?
Posted by: mojo   2004-09-04 9:06:17 PM  

#23  can you IMAGINE the squealing from McAuliffe, Kerry, DU, et al if they do produce OBL or evidence he's got his raisins before the election? The resulting explosion ould be spectacular!
Posted by: Frank G   2004-09-04 4:26:26 PM  

#22  Maybe OS, but it also has a domestic political impact. I think all the mouthing off we've gotten for the last year about capturing OBL is nothing but cheap talk. Leave it to the Pakistanis. Our people should not be being quoted for attribution about guarantees unless they guy is already in custody.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-09-04 4:23:56 PM  

#21  Datum for you guys:

Disinformation is an important part of counter-terror ops.
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-09-04 4:19:54 PM  

#20  #18 Are you certain about that, Heysenberg?.......

Bwahahahahahahaha!
Posted by: Zenster   2004-09-04 3:51:37 PM  

#19  Absolutely not, but Ill gladley eat my words and open a nice chablis if the beard is dragged through the streets of New York tommorow
Posted by: Heysenbergmayhavebeenhere   2004-09-04 1:59:26 PM  

#18  Are you certain about that, Heysenberg?.......
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2004-09-04 1:56:53 PM  

#17  O.K. now this is officialy getting silly: From Haaretz flash:

"19:53 State Department official: don`t be surprised if bin Laden caught tomorrow"
Posted by: Heysenbergmayhavebeenhere   2004-09-04 1:39:33 PM  

#16  Personally, I suspect pressers like this are designed to disrupt enemy operations - if they suddenly suspect that the hard-to-contact Great Leader is in our hands, and is ordering them into ambushes and capture, they can't trust anybody.

It fatally disrupts any surviving command-and-control, for a brief period of time while they figure out if he's missing or out of physical contact. This flailing about might actually lead us to him or other high-value targets, if we're listening properly.

But, this is a short-term effect. After a while, they're figure out it's bullshit. I'm worried about the timing. It suggests that whatever's left of the central organization of AQ is on the move, with something big. Since we've had a rolling wave of attacks on the Chechnyan front, it might be that end of the war. Or it could be a European or American attack for which the loud and nasty Chechnyan operations are designed to act as preliminary diversions.

We made it through the conventions without any attacks. That's good. The only thing coming up before the elections would be a run on Sept. 11 redux. There's too much time to the election for a "we've got Bin Laden!" balloon to have any air in it by the time of a scheduled attack, if they're launching it now.

Of course, they might actually have Bin Laden. But I can't imagine they would had been able to resist marching him out for the conventions, if they did. Nah, he's still sitting in eastern Iran somewhere.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2004-09-04 10:36:52 AM  

#15  I'm inclined to go along with Mark Steyn. Bin Laden died at Tora Bora in December 2001.
Posted by: Parabellum   2004-09-04 10:04:28 AM  

#14  maybe Bush has a thick pair of lips floating in a jar, sitting on the desk in the oval office, with a DNA identifier tag on the label? I can dream, can't I?
Posted by: Frank G   2004-09-04 9:50:48 AM  

#13  I could find any party affiliation info.
is supposed to be
I couldn't find any party affiliation info.
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-04 7:52:34 AM  

#12  98zulu, el cubos would always find some angle suitable to their agenda, no matter how you slice it. It is a state of mind (I know, I know... how I can speak of mind where there is really no such a faculty present, but say I speak in similes).

Cofer Black is a counterterrorism disinfo expert and coordinator with international ct agencies.
Some CB's quotes: "All I want to say is that there was 'before' 9/11 and 'after' 9/11. After 9/11 the gloves come off."
"I know that we are on the right track today and as a result we are safer as a nation. 'No Limits' aggressive, relentless, worldwide pursuit of any terrorist who threatens us is the only way to go and is the bottom line."

I could find any party affiliation info.
So, I would tend to conclude the man knows what he is doing.
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-04 7:43:44 AM  

#11  That doesn't make his guarantee and less dumb. I suspect he is a Democrat.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2004-09-04 7:19:38 AM  

#10  I would not call Cofer Black a dumbass running his mouth. He speaks you listen.
Posted by: Anonymous5668   2004-09-04 7:13:03 AM  

#9   Well, just another example of some dumbass running his mouth again. Now the LLL will claim that we've had him forever and saving him for the elections. Or that we don't get him and Bush is a failure. Nice job asshat the LLL wins either way you slice it.
Posted by: 98zulu   2004-09-04 7:02:21 AM  

#8  Mark, sure, extremely tough, but not impossible.
Part of the job of intelligence services is to provide some handy misdirection to set scoopers on a false trail if that is truly necessary. (I would agree, in this case).

Example: Operation Bodyguard.
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-04 6:45:59 AM  

#7  .com, just speculating (emphasis).

Not much a conspirational tilt. If I were in position to know, I would probably find ways to make as much capital of it as possible. Incl. timed release of information, especially if that may save a bunch of lives.

As for Holyweird flicks, a nice try. My TV is powered off for more than a year and I don't go to theaters either, except twice a year with my 8 yr old daughter to watch some kiddie movie.
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-04 6:26:43 AM  

#6  It would be extremely tough to keep that info hush hush, in light of all the mass media-men looking for the grand scoop.
Posted by: Mark Espinola   2004-09-04 6:21:01 AM  

#5  Easy - don't get caught up in the conspiracy game -- or watch too many Hollyweird movies. :^)
Posted by: .com   2004-09-04 6:14:03 AM  

#4  Maybe they got him already for some time....?
Posted by: Dutchgeek   2004-09-04 6:11:37 AM  

#3  Darn, sourde=source.
PIMF.
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-04 6:02:44 AM  

#2  Hmmm, so there was a grain of truth in that Russian sourde report a few days ago (which resulted in discussion about the amount of salt necessary to include with digesting the article).

To state that the arrest is guaranteed is a bit odd.

I would speculate that the arrest is fait accompli, but there is an issue of timing of a official public acknowledgement.

I doubt it has anything to do with the US political scene, rather there are probably intelligence and preventive considerations.

Suppose that the rumors AQ cooked something for the time close to the US presidential elections are true, and the operation is in progress, then timed announcement may not only inhibit the operation but also put the terrorist in a panic mode and make then visible, and elimination of the threat may be easier.

Once again, emphasis on "speculate".
Posted by: Zarathustra   2004-09-04 6:01:33 AM  

#1  Taking Osama alive would be the greatest boost for the America, our fighting men & others serving in Iraq & Afghanistan, plus the free world (except France & Germany of course)
Posted by: Mark Espinola   2004-09-04 5:59:59 AM  

00:00