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| Lessons from Beslan |
| 2004-09-04 |
| Just my opinion... Russia lost more people in the Beslan atrocity than were killed in the Bali bombings. They lost another 129 in the Nord Ost Theater attack a couple years ago. They've lost more in the various booms and shootouts within Chechnya and in its neighboring states and provinces. Fox News reports today that Putin as admitted Russia has been too soft on terrorism — there's no telling whether they're actually going to do something, or if he's just beating his breast in self-reproach. I've made the point here before that Russia's military in the Caucasus hasn't been up to snuff. It's a conglomeration of draftees and elite troops, and it doesn't seem from this distance as though intel is driving operations. The Russians invented the combined arms concept, they tested it, they exeercised it, but they don't do it well. You can't have effective military operations without tight integration of intelligence assets. Otherwise commanders are working blind. Even with intel integration, they'd still have a foot in a bucket. There are (or used to be) separate chains of command for OMON, Spetsnaz, and line units. That's 1968-era organization. We suffered from the same problems in Vietnam, and they suffered from similar problems — and even solved many of them — in Afghanistan. It looks from here like they've reverted, and I'm guessing that's due to the inertia built into their military structure. Their other significant problem is the fact that so much of their military is made up of draftees. Putin has said he's going to institute a professional military. He fired Kvanshin a couple months ago, removing an obstacle to military reform. 76th Airborne Division is supposed to be switching from conscripts to professionals and is due in Chechnya sometime this year, as of last report. It's not a process that's racing along, though. If they're going to accomplish anything, they've got to speed it up, and then they've got to tough it out through the shakedown period, when it's going to look like a bad idea. Once the bugs are out, there will be improvement. The most important thing I'm hoping Putin has learned is that Russia is being warred upon by one man: Shamil Basayev. Maskhadov is window dressing, providing the same "legitimate" face to the Chechens that the religious parties provide to the Pak jihadis or that Sinn Fein provides to the IRA. If Maskhadov was bumped off tomorrow, there would be another "president" of Chechnya. All the "brigades" in Chechnya seem to report to Basayev, not to Maskhadov, and Basayev doesn't report to him. At best, he sometimes consults with him. That also goes for the legions of Arabs flocking to the Caucasus to make their bones. The Arabian money filters through Arab hands, but ends up in Basayev's pocket. It was Basayev who pioneered the peculiarly brutal methods of the Chechen thugs: In 1995 he and a force of about 100 men stormed a hospital in Budennovsk, taking 2000 people hostage. Ryadus Salikhin, the Black Widows, Islamic International Brigade, all lead back to him. He's the kingpin, and even whatever al-Ghamdi is handling the money nowadays gets his marching orders from him. Why? Basayev's been successful. That 1995 raid led to negotiations, and the negotiations led to Chechnya being cut loose, effectively, from Russia. They couldn't keep it, of course, but that's mainly because they couldn't control their thuggish inclinations. Once they had it, they had to carry jihad to Dagestan and Ingushetia, and they had to send "warnings" to the Russers in the form of exploding apartment buildings. Basayev is to Putin as Osama bin Laden is to the USA. He's the man they have to catch or kill, and preferably the latter. I made the remark yesterday that the "pinheads" of the world will decry Russian brutality regardless of what Putin does on response to the attack. Some people took exception to that remark. But I stand by it: If he does nothing, he'll be characterized as week, all show and no substance. If he does anything other than nothing, to include continuing the present inept approach, involving being reactive to the daily local outrages of the Basayev's army, he'll be described as over-reacting and brutality. I'm hoping he'll realize this and be properly ruthless in the hunt for Basayev, the while rebuilding Chechnya as they've tried on occasion to do. If it takes out wiping out an entire county to get Shamil, then the county should be wiped out, as long as they're sure they're going to get him. It's a matter of "pay me now or pay me later": carnage to take out the kingpin, or ongoing carnage while he remains alive. The corpse count is going to be lower with the former than with the latter. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #9 Don't know that pointing to the Russian military as the "root cause" is correct--isn't it really IslamoFacisct terrorists that are the root cause? OBL and his deputies like Basayev militarized and radicalized AQ and its branches starting in the early 1990's. They'd like a little payback for Russia's invasion of Afghanistan. And they're more convinced in Russia's case than they were of ours that Russia is a "paper tiger." Chechnya is another node of the cancer that we now know as Islamist jihad by terror and murder to be added to the others of Kashmir, Kosovo, Iraq, Thailand, Nepal, the Philippines, Basque Spain, Indonesia, etc., etc., etc. and Paleostine (and maybe Tri-borders in South America). |
| Posted by: GreatestJeneration 2004-09-07 6:51:44 PM |
| #8 What BIN said. The root cause of the Chechen mess is the total incompetence, demoralization and corruption of the Russian military, incl Spetsnaz. Were they halfway professional and organized, the rebellion would have been put down ten years ago. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-09-04 11:34:52 PM |
| #7 I met a 20 yr old Russian from a town about 100 miles from the Chechen border 2 yrs ago. He was a college student on a 6 mo visa in the US and he had no intention of going back. Military service was mandatory in his area for any male after secondary school. A postponement is given for those able to go to college but, after school, its marching time. Bootcamp lasts 8 weeks and then into the fire you go. He said many of his friends had already come back in boxes. If Putin is serious, he needs to send real soldiers instead of 18 yr old kids to fight seasoned veterans. Hopefully this is a wakeup call. |
| Posted by: BombIranNow 2004-09-04 11:30:38 PM |
| #6 There is an op-ed piece in the Moscow Times online that talks of the ordinary russian talking about instituting the policies of Gen. Yermolov, who was the Tsarist general who conquered Chenchenya. He held the tribes collectively responsible for the deeds of the tribes members. The Op-ed says it is time that this is discussed in the government or there may be a new government. The Times is usually pretty liberal, but I think that it is now reverting to being russian. Yulia Latinya a real out spoken columnist is now professing herself as an imperialist and saying that Russia should reclaim its old borders. Don't know what she considers 'old'. I think that in the next few months-two years we are going to hear about a really pissed off bear shitting in the woods. Definitely there will be a harder line taking by Putin or it is going be bye-bye Vladimir. |
| Posted by: Old Fogey 2004-09-04 10:51:40 PM |
| #5 Agree with Fred and Matt. I am coming to the conclusion that there are 2 kinds of muslims: those that abhor and will fight against jihad; and, those that do not. Any and every muslim that do not are the enemy. An enemy that must be fought to the death. It does not matter why a muslim will not fight against jihad. By proxy, they are aiding and abetting the enemy. An enemy that will eventually kill every "infidel". I am not an advocate of a scorched earth. But there is coming a day when islam will be faced with cleansing the islamic toilet of the human excrement or the western world will do it for them. And they will not be nearly as surgical. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2004-09-04 7:10:06 PM |
| #4 I never thought that one day I'd be rooting for the Red Army. We live in interesting times. |
| Posted by: Matt 2004-09-04 6:28:11 PM |
| #3 Since the Iranians want a nuclear power plant so much, perhaps the Chechens do also. Putin should oblige them. I'm sure blueprints of Chernobyl are still around somewhere in Russia. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2004-09-04 6:08:35 PM |
| #2 as I've bleated here so often, until the costs of jihad are brought home to the financial and religious arms (hmmm, Arabia fits that bill) there will be no peace. Mullahs dead, princes dead and moskkks in radioactive ruin will explain the costs to these asshats. I'm not in a "live and let live" mood. Kill them and take the oil if that's what it comes down to |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-09-04 6:03:26 PM |
| #1 Basayev's hometown? Make it the new glow-worm of the Russian confederation |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-09-04 5:59:32 PM |