Missouri, considered a battleground state earlier this year, has become a second-tier priority for Sen. John Kerry, who canceled his television commercials here last month and has made only two visits since the Democratic convention in July. No presidential victor - with the lone exception of Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 - has won the White House in the last century without carrying Missouri. But with President Bush leading in polls here, the Kerry campaign made a decisive shift in strategy. "The last time a Democrat won the White House without winning Missouri was 1824," said Paul Sloca, the Missouri GOP's communications director. "I think John Kerry is resigned to the fact that Missourians aren't being duped by his tax increase and lack of direction on defense message."
Missouri Republicans have worked overtime to convince voters that Kerry simply isn't interested in the state's 11 electoral votes. Sloca said he could recall only one time this year when Kerry visited. In fact, Kerry has made others trips, including ones in August and September. But the lack of television ads - neither Kerry nor the Democratic National Committee is currently running any - has dramatically changed the state's political significance, said Joel Rivlin, deputy director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. "Missouri's just not the priority it was earlier in the year," said Rivlin, whose group bases its findings on advertising data compiled by Nielsen Monitor-Plus. Much of the money that could be spent in Missouri, Rivlin said, has ended up in Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin and swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The Massachusetts senator returned to Missouri on Thursday to prepare for tonight's debate with Bush at Washington University in St. Louis, one of the metropolitan areas where Kerry enjoys more support than the president. Winning those urban areas is crucial to Kerry's chances, said Robert Salisbury, a professor emeritus at Washington University. He said there might be more reason to devote campaign cash to volunteers rather than commercials to spur voters there to the polls. Democrats, meanwhile, resent claims that Kerry has ceded the state. Even though no ads are airing on television, the DNC continues to pay for a number of radio spots. "There has been a continuous shipment of staff and resources into the state as well as a ton of surrogate travel here," said Christine Glunz, the DNC's communications director in Missouri. "This is one of the most aggressive field operations in the country." Glunz said there are 23 field offices up and running, which is more than triple the number the Democrats had here in 2000.
| I'm sure they're combing the cemetaries right now, registering everyone in sight... |
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