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| It's W's to lose now. |
| 2004-10-16 |
| RealClearPolitics Poll AverageSM 3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average It would seem that W is going to pull this out, thank God! Poll Date Bush/ Cheney Kerry/ Edwards Nader/ Camejo Spread RCP Average 10/12 - 10/15 48.8% 45.4% 1.6% Bush +3.4 Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1 Newsweek (LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 44% 1% Bush +6 ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)* 10/13 - 10/15 50% 47% 1% Bush +3 Zogby (1211 LV) 10/13 - 10/15 48% 44% 1% Bush +4 TIPP (786 LV) 10/12 - 10/15 48% 45% 2% Bush +3 CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 45% 2% Bush +3 ICR (763 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 43% 2% Bush +5 CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1 Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% 4% Bush +1 GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% 0% Bush +3 AP/Ipsos (944 LV)*** 10/4 - 10/6 46% 50% 2% Kerry +4 Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% 1% Bush +3 Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4 47% 45% 1% Bush +2 ICR (762 LV)** 10/1 - 10/5 51% 45% 2% Bush +6 ARG (800 LV) 10/2 - 10/4 46% 46% 2% TIE ABC News/WP (1169 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 51% 46% 1% Bush +5 CBS News/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 47% 47% 1% TIE Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 46% 43% 2% Bush +3 Pew Research (801 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 44% 2% Bush +5 CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% 1% TIE Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2 SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV) 9/27 - 10/2 48% 43% 2% Bush +5 Battleground (1000 LV) 9/27 - 9/30 51% 44% 1% Bush +7 LA Times (1100 LV) 9/25 - 9/28 51% 45% 2% Bush +6 CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV) 9/24 - 9/26 52% 44% 3% Bush +8 IBD/TIPP (649 LV) 9/22 - 9/27 45% 45% 2% TIE ABC News/WP (810 LV) 9/23 - 9/26 51% 45% 1% Bush +6 Pew Research (948 RV) 9/22 - 9/26 48% 40% 2% Bush +8 Time (877 LV) 9/21 - 9/23 48% 42% 5% Bush +6 FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22 46% 42% 1% Bush +4 Battleground (1000 LV) 9/20 - 9/23 50% 45% 0% Bush +5 Marist (630 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 50% 44% 2% Bush +6 CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 51% 42% 2% Bush +9 AP/Ipsos (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 52% 45% 1% Bush +7 Pew Research (989 RV) 9/17 - 9/21 45% 42% 3% Bush +3 NBC News/WSJ (787 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 50% 46% 1% Bush +4 Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 46% 43% 1% Bush +3 IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 - 9/18 45% 42% 2% Bush +3 ARG (LV) 9/7 - 9/21 47% 46% 1% Bush +1 CBS News (1048 RV) 9/12 - 9/16 50% 41% 3% Bush +9 CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 54% 40% 3% Bush +14 Battleground (1000 LV) 9/12 - 9/15 49% 45% 1% Bush +4 Pew Research (725 LV) 9/11 - 9/14 47% 46% 1% Bush +1 Harris (867 LV) 9/9 - 9/13 47% 48% 2% Kerry +1 Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 49% 43% 2% Bush +6 IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 - 9/12 46% 46% 3% TIE Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 - 9/9 46% 42% 2% Bush +4 Time (857 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 52% 41% 3% Bush +11 AP/Ipsos (899 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5 FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 - 9/8 47% 43% 3% Bush +4 ABC News/Wash Post (LV) 9/6 - 9/8 52% 43% 2% Bush +9 Pew Research (745 LV) 9/8 - 9/10 54% 38% 2% Bush +16 CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 - 9/8 49% 42% 1% Bush +7 CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV) 9/3 - 9/5 52% 45% 1% Bush +7 Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 - 9/3 52% 41% 3% Bush +11 Click Here for More Polling Data *ABC News and Washington Post use different likely voter models for the same field data, RealClearPolitics will use the Washington Post model when the two are different. **To date we have not included the ICR poll in our RealClearPolitics averages. However, after speaking with the polling director at ICR we are now comfortable that the methodology of the poll is sound and merits inclusion along with the other polls in our average. (ICR has rounded this poll to 51-45 to better reflect the spread between the candidates.) ***This poll was originally reported as a head-to-head number, Thomas Riehle, the director of the poll with AP-Ipsos, brought it to out attention Oct 11, that it was a 3-way poll, and we have fixed the error. ****Democracy Corps is a Democratic Polling Firm Send This Page to a Friend Sign Up For RCP Updates |
| Posted by:RJB in JC MO |
| #7 The Kerry Spot has a new post warning about these latest poll. Example; Newsweek oversampled Republicans. |
| Posted by: AF Lady 2004-10-16 7:57:11 PM |
| #6 I think a backlash against last-minute moonbat antics will guarantee Bush's win. It's one thing to see a constant barrage of plainly one-sided media claims about Repub cheating, quite another to see the real attempts at intimidation and interference around polling places on election day. A lot of voters will run the gauntlet and decide to defy the moonbat authoritarians and manipulators where they still can, in the privacy of the voting booth. |
| Posted by: Atomic Conspiracy 2004-10-16 7:45:28 PM |
| #5 God bless you Jersey Mike - keep the faith brother. |
| Posted by: JP 2004-10-16 7:40:50 PM |
| #4 I have always thought it was Bushs' to lose. The fact that he is showing up in the NJ socialist sh*thole next week tells me this place is in play, despite all of the stolen Bush lawn signs and scratched cars with Bush stickers on them. |
| Posted by: JerseyMike 2004-10-16 7:33:49 PM |
| #3 Hugh Hewitt had an interesting angle on this that the polling companies do not have the correct model for what is really happening out there. Two things should swing this W's way. 1) Strong Catholic vote for Bush. 2) Apathetic Union/Black vote for Kerry. |
| Posted by: Douglas De Bono 2004-10-16 7:08:52 PM |
| #2 best poll? Watch where they show up to energize voters. Kerry's still trying to get the base in blue states (WI) and Bush is hitting blue states as well(Ore., Wi, PA, NJ) |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-10-16 7:04:57 PM |
| #1 RealClear Politics has another page today that shows the Electorial Votes: Bush 264 - Kerry 237 (270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win). That leaves 37 EV tied or unaccounted for. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html So, don't sell that bear skin just yet, rjb; however, your optimism is appreciated. |
| Posted by: GK 2004-10-16 6:58:44 PM |