| Submit your comments on this article |
| Iraq-Jordan |
| A lot of the Fallujah hard boyz fled |
| 2004-11-11 |
| The rapid U.S. push into Fallujah has come without the sort of fateful showdown that would break the back of the insurgency. In fact, advance U.S. and Iraqi government warnings gave the militants plenty of time to get out of town, and it appears many did just that. Military reports say small bands of guerrillas, with no more than 15 members each, fled the city in the weeks before the U.S.-led onslaught, which was widely telegraphed by public statements and news reports. "That's probably why we've been able to move as fast as we have," an officer in the Army's 1st Cavalry Division said Wednesday. Insurgencies typically succeed by avoiding face-to-face battles with stronger military forces and by staging attacks where armies are weakest. The guerrillas who fled Fallujah might simply be repositioning themselves to fight elsewhere, said the officer, who agreed to discuss the Fallujah situation on condition of anonymity. Under embed rules, military officers have the option of not being identified in news reports for security reasons. The development might mean that the world's most powerful army is chasing a smaller band of insurgents than previously thought. Before the assault, the 1st Cavalry estimated that 1,200 guerrillas were holed up in Fallujah, with as many as 2,000 in nearby towns and villages. It was unclear how many were left inside or had been killed. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #11 Mrs D, I would hope that UAVs and gunships and the like are wiping these scum out in detail. |
| Posted by: Tony (UK) 2004-11-11 5:54:57 PM |
| #10 It is...inconceivable, yes that's the word, to me that the military did not anticipate this outcome and that their plan does not take advantage of the disarray and relative visibility of the escaping terrs. I certainly hope we are in hot pursuit of these guys and that we don't do any telegraphing as we track them down. OTOH we are now in a land war in Asia. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2004-11-11 5:46:06 PM |
| #9 To achieve the political goal of stabilizing Fallujah ahead of the elections it was appropriate to telegraph intent widely and convincingly while negotiating alternatives. Most of the Iraqis, I think, realize that the Baathists and jihadis had an opportunity to avoid the violence. There's only one problem with this approach - the possibility that it would be tried again (and again), and that rebels will have yet additional opportunities to escape, again. Stability comes when those people that lean toward violence to further their aims are removed from the mix. That will help, a bit, when the extend of damage in Fallujah is seen -- far less than would have been in a full assault, but still a lot. I can see doing this once, but not twice or more. If the intent was to send a nice, clear message, then consider it sent and understood, and let there be no more talk of warnings. They've had their chances, now it's time to face the consequences. This insurgency isn't going to be stamped out overnight, but whacking as many of these little worms as possible goes a long way toward that end. The key is leaving them no avenue for escape. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-11-11 1:43:25 PM |
| #8 One thing that I wish was telegraphed was a threat that any car or truck left in Fallujah during the US/ING assault would be summarily destroyed. No cars = no car bombs. Our guys should just assume that all cars are booby trapped and should smoke them all. |
| Posted by: Tibor 2004-11-11 1:08:03 PM |
| #7 #6, to do that we would have had to have all the troops and equipment in position. Not only would that have been difficult logistically, it takes the edge off of fighting troops when they are poised for combat but then are stuck with guard duty. Keep sight of the military objective here, folks: control of Fallujah for the civilian government, not necessarily the end of the "insurgency". The latter would be nice and it is hastened by the op in Fallujah, but not completed there. I therefore disagree with Bomb-a-rama. To achieve the political goal of stabilizing Fallujah ahead of the elections it was appropriate to telegraph intent widely and convincingly while negotiating alternatives. Most of the Iraqis, I think, realize that the Baathists and jihadis had an opportunity to avoid the violence. That will help, a bit, when the extend of damage in Fallujah is seen -- far less than would have been in a full assault, but still a lot. |
| Posted by: rkb 2004-11-11 1:04:30 PM |
| #6 Bomb-a-rama, I respectfully disagree. It helped our military a lot to get the civilians out of fallujaih on a tactical as well as propoganda level. We should have announced we were going in, and we should also have announced marshall law in the area after nightfall in the months before the action. Anyone found sneaking through the date-palms or swamps at night would be shot without question. That would have convinced the civilians to leave the ordinary way and made the bad guys worry about leaving. Then you set up sniper teams with equipment to call in big guns if they see something they can't handle and you kill the rats leaving Fallujah. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2004-11-11 12:37:30 PM |
| #5 Something I might add, is that all these warnings given ended up being counterproductive. Allawi had already given these rebels an opportunity to give up or try the politcal route and they obviously declined. At this late stage of the game, it's unlikely that any more converts are going to be won over, so the logical course of action is to find the remaining rebels and dust them off. In order to do this succesfully, plans and intentions should not be telegraphed. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-11-11 12:33:13 PM |
| #4 Smaller groups = command and control problem for the muj. And as we roll the towns in the province, we can use smaller forces, and hit more areas, due to less resistance. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2004-11-11 12:32:43 PM |
| #3 1.) Unless we wanted to see where they went. 2.) No cordon is that tight over a perimeter that long. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2004-11-11 12:29:41 PM |
| #2 The question is, fled to where? If there was a tight cordon around the town, none of them should have gotten away. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-11-11 12:27:08 PM |
| #1 I presume this op includes more than just Fallujah and that we will be rolling these bad boyz up in their new residences over the next few weeks. At least I sure hope so. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2004-11-11 11:57:40 AM |