| #2 I suspect that things may be smoother than would be apparent on the surface. For their part, the Kurds have a group of leaders that are very educated and erudite (having heard them speak), and they have powerful allies in both the US, and, strangely enough, with their new friend, Turkey. The Shia are businesslike, and I suspect would be far more comfortable with a federal situation than would the Sunni. For their part, the Sunni have been severely rattled of late, and may be weakened in their representation in the government. And without the firm backing of a weaponed Iraqi army, they are just an annoying minority. This leaves the Kurdish leaders to explain how very much the Kurds have to gain in a federal state, vs. how terribly much they could lose if they sought independence. So while they may not have an independent country de jure, they can be content to have such a land de facto. The final, long term selling point to the Kurds will be "what does a unified Iraq offer us?" If the answer is substantive, the outlook is good. |