November 23, 2004: Lebanon is moving towards violent confrontations with the many foreign powers that occupy it. Syria has had 30,000 troops in the country for nearly three decades. Initially the Syrians came in as peacekeepers, to help end the 1975-90 civil war that tore Lebanon apart. But the Syrians have settled down to run legal, and illegal enterprises, and make life miserable for the Lebanese. Then there is the Iranian subsidized Hizbollah terrorist organization, several thousand armed men (all from the Lebanese Shia minority) who do pretty much what they please in central and southern Lebanon. There are 300,000 Palestinian refugees who have been in the country for over four decades (Lebanon won't let them become citizens), and can muster several hundred armed men who try to launch terrorist attacks on Israel, or anyone who disagrees with Palestinian politics.
The Lebanese remember that their 1975 civil war began because of friction between the many factions in the country, but particularly the Palestinians and Shia (who later received much support from Shia Iran). Lately there have been anti-Syrian demonstrations. There has always been hostility towards the Palestinians, and the Shia have not made themselves any more popular because of the Hizbollah's "we can do whatever we want" attitude. In the last few weeks, the Lebanese army has put up more roadblocks in the south, trying to keep Palestinian terrorists from driving down to the border and launching 107mm Katyusha rockets into Israel. One was fired off on November 15th, but caused no casualties. Israel has told Lebanon, for years, that if terrorists fire too many of those rockets into Israel from Lebanon, the Israeli army will invade, and go looking for rockets. The Israelis did this in 1982, and the Lebanese don't want to go through that again. The Lebanese would also like to get back control of their country. That will take a while, even though the UN, the United States and just about everyone else has told Syria to get out of Lebanon. Syria is making too much money staying in Lebanon, and no one has stepped up to offer Syria a large enough bribe to leave. No one is willing to force the issue with troops. |