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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Why Iran must to shut down its last 20 centrifuges |
| 2004-11-26 |
| "I asked John Loftus (a Fox News intelligence correspondent and director of IntelCon). His answer has been confirmed by other experts on Iran. He claims that uranium enrichment centrifuges, which run at supersonic speeds, emit a unique "sound" that our intelligence satellites can detect. He believes that Iran is aware of this capability of US intelligence." I found this at Regime Change Iran. Do we have this capability? Here is the address if the link doesn't work. Complete text is on the Opinion page as well. |
| Posted by:raptor |
| #22 Thermo nuclear activities have been mentioned here as a method of stopping the mad turbans in the past. That would force the US to give up what small amount of good will left for us in the rest of the world. It may however be the only option we have left. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-11-26 7:53:18 PM |
| #21 DR Z - as .com sez - there's been no shortage of ideas, proposals and "sinister" plans here - all resulting in immolated imams or an ayatollah hanging decoration from every street lt. It's a christmas spirit thing..... |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-11-26 7:40:39 PM |
| #20 DrZ - The full range of reactions, short of a full-scale boots invasion, have been proposed here on RB. I've certainly posted in favor of two options: a) stop-gap nuke pgm attack - certainly there must be a finite number of targets to shut the pgm down at least temporarily if the strategic chokepoint steps have been identified b) a collaborative effort that involves full regime change: 1) decapitation strike against facilities, Black Hats, Rev Guard, Guardian Council, and Basij 2) SF to complete the taking and holding of air-attacked military hardpoints (that the armed populace would be unable to take) and important infrastructure, such as oil facilities 3) Popular armed uprising to take everything else from the Islamists - with whatever assistance they required Of course this has a major weakness: the CIA. Has the CIA cultivated assets, contacts, etc. and prepared for a decap / uprising / regime change? From what we're reading now, I doubt it - even if it was ordered to do so. One thing I do believe is that we should have good solid intel on where the Mad Mullahs stand in their nuke pgm, missile, guidance pkg efforts - there is more than enough popular discontent for a pool of potential agents. Whether this has been handled correctly and developed is in doubt. This may just be the biggest CIA failure in history, 9/11 included, if the political shenanigans and seditious insurrection within the org has caused them to drop the ball regards Iran. Given the discontent of the populace and the isolation of the ruling Black Hat Gov't, the Iran situation should be clearer than most we've faced. I know we don't have the boots for an invasion, but we shouldn't need them - the population seems poised to do the job and, if handled well, we could topple the regime and neutralize the nuke pgm -- and leave the rest to them. We shall see if it has been fumbled. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-11-26 7:19:02 PM |
| #19 I am just curious has anyone read my entire article ? The focus on US intelligence is interesting, but no one seems to be commenting the substance on the article, which is what should we do? |
| Posted by: DoctorZin 2004-11-26 6:44:50 PM |
| #18 BTW, I ran a back of the envelope calculation and I estimate a neutrino flux at 200 km up of about 200 per square meter for a kg of Plutonium-239. Yep, that agrees with my calculations. *cough*. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-11-26 5:47:46 PM |
| #17 Valentine, I'm curious what sorts of neutrino fluxes these "hand-held" models are supposed to detect. I've done a bit of work on backgrounds for low energy gamma detection in orbiting telescopes (using liquid argon), and since the signature for neutrino interactions is similar (an electron suddenly appears in the middle of the detector), I assume that neutrino detectors would suffer from the same backgrounds. If I were asked to guess, I'd say we get more information about Iranian refinement from people on the ground than machines in the sky. Maybe the story was put about because we're monitoring their imports of sound-cancelling devices, and hoping to trace where and how much . .. BTW, I ran a back of the envelope calculation and I estimate a neutrino flux at 200 km up of about 200 per square meter for a kg of Plutonium-239. Given their minute interaction cross section, I suspect this sort of detector would only useful for verifying nuclear explosions, not detecting piles of radioactive material. |
| Posted by: James 2004-11-26 5:42:34 PM |
| #16 Let Lev do it. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-11-26 5:00:57 PM |
| #15 If they can be detected and located, then I hope the coordinates are being turned over to the Israelis. Maybe we'll get to see the bunker busters we sold them put to use. |
| Posted by: JerseyMike 2004-11-26 4:56:22 PM |
| #14 I'm going to guess high frequency back EMF detectable on the power grid. |
| Posted by: ed 2004-11-26 3:00:32 PM |
| #13 Most likely they are space based neutrino detectors. What few people know is that the technology has progressed that these detectors can actually be made extremely small (handheld sizes). |
| Posted by: Valentine 2004-11-26 2:39:07 PM |
| #12 This centrifuge subterfuge is meaningless. The vast majority of Iranian bomb cores will come from plutonium extracted from their heavy water reactors. Either invade or get used to a nuclear armed Iran where each of the Russian supplied reactors will produce enough plutonium for 50 bombs each year. |
| Posted by: ed 2004-11-26 2:25:35 PM |
| #11 For verification purposes, it doesn't matter. Anything short of 'mothballing' the complex, would be in violation of the suspension. Just activate or arrange heat sensors in the area, and any rise above ambiant 'room [background]' temperatures would trigger a violation. We can 'see' heat from space or by laser detection! |
| Posted by: smn 2004-11-26 2:04:42 PM |
| #10 I think many of you are misunderstanding idea that the centrifuges âemit a sound." I believe John was speaking metaphorically. In other words the centrifuges product some kind of signature that our intelligence satellites can detect. Also, I heard the same thing from several other respected sources. |
| Posted by: Doctorin 2004-11-26 1:33:57 PM |
| #9 ....Clarke's Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Don't forget that intelligent, educated Iraqi's are convinced that the wraparound sunglasses our guys wear are capable of seeing through walls, and that they believe each guy carries a portable air conditioner in his backpack. Let 'em think we can 'hear' a centrifuge. Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2004-11-26 1:02:32 PM |
| #8 If a centrifuge is bombed in Iran, does it make a sound? |
| Posted by: Rafael 2004-11-26 12:58:34 PM |
| #7 One thing I do know for certain is that if they are operating centrifuges, there are no windows in the building to bounce a laser off of. |
| Posted by: Mike 2004-11-26 12:56:45 PM |
| #6 I think it more likely that we just don't want any excuses for finding traces of enriched uranium here and there, throwing the dogs off the scent. |
| Posted by: Tom 2004-11-26 11:54:01 AM |
| #5 By bouncing a laser beam off a window, vibrations can be measured and sounds can be âheardâ. If a vibration is sufficiently distinct from the background noise, it could be detected. (Autocorrellation with a reference signal can extract very weak signals.) Could this be done from a satellite and used to detect centrifuges? Who knows? |
| Posted by: Anonymous5032 2004-11-26 11:47:40 AM |
| #4 Assuming there is some sort of signature detection available, the absense of signature would indicate no activity or masking enabled. Just more unknown unknowns. |
| Posted by: john 2004-11-26 11:32:04 AM |
| #3 Maybe it's not satellites that collect the sound? |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-11-26 10:55:25 AM |
| #2 As stated, no. Sound is not going to reach satellites. And in any case muffling or sound cancelling technology is readily available. If he meant E/M radiation, there's no problem shielding against that too. Elementary physics; Iranian engineers know this already. American reporters though . . . |
| Posted by: James 2004-11-26 10:35:22 AM |
| #1 even if we don't, why would we let them know? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-11-26 10:30:07 AM |