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| The Democratic Boom |
| 2004-12-10 |
| The most stirring democratic event since the transformations after the fall of the Berlin Wall is occurring now in Kiev's Maidan Square. "Maidan" is Ukrainian for "independence." This is the Orange Revolution, which the whole world has witnessed and, more importantly, adopted. Western European governments support the claims of the opposition, editorialists applaud their aspirations to join the ranks of free, self-determined people. Will they now do the same come January 30 for the people of Iraq? Ukraine's experience has become a democratic benchmark. By briefly overlaying Iraq on Ukraine, we may better understand Iraq's prospects. Vladimir Putin last week mocked the likelihood of a real democratic event happening in Iraq next month. An expert opinion. I discussed this recently with Adrian Karatnycky of Freedom House, whose annual survey, "Freedom in the World," is the Michelin Guide to democracy's development. Also, Mr. Karatnycky is of Ukrainian descent, and the day we talked in a café in New York's East Village, he had just listened on the Web to the Ukrainian Supreme Court's decision to annul the election and call for a re-vote. Courts function in Iraq, but unlike Ukraine judges in Iraq must worry about being shot. "It is very difficult to build democratic institutions when there is still a substantial zone of instability," Mr. Karatnycky said, especially in the nation's capital city. As important is a thriving middle class--"independent economic forces that can financially support alternative political parties and the like." But he pointed out the danger of minimizing a nation's prospects by underestimating the momentum of the democratic process: "If you establish routinized institutions of even quasi-competitive elections, over time they create opportunities for real contests. . . . When a society matures, like Ukraine, these institutions deepen. In Ukraine it took 13 years, in Georgia [the Rose Revolution last year] it took 12, in Serbia about 10 years." |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #8 Lol! Engineers are the only occupation I can directly relate to, heh. On the other extreme, the hair splitters and nuanced werdsmyths just piss me off. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-12-10 8:31:28 PM |
| #7 I ALWAYS prefer engineers - I can never remember all that clerical sh&t |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-12-10 8:24:10 PM |
| #6 rkb - At the top of the list, according to articles posted here recently, Sistani et al have loaded up a mess of Shi'a Clerics at the top of the slate - not the engineers and teachers described in the article. I wonder which article is giving the more accurate description? An interview with some Columbia Prof on Fox yesterday reiterated the packing of the list with Qom-trained clerics... and the discussion was about the relationship the new Iraqi Gov't would likely have with Iran as a result. Disturbing commentary. I certainly agree - just getting the ball rolling is something... I recognize that Shi'a will dominate - but I hoped for them to be employed as engineers and teachers, not clerics. Sigh. I guess we shall see. :-) |
| Posted by: .com 2004-12-10 8:20:02 PM |
| #5 .com, I think the Shia were wise to go the "slate of candidates" route for now. They have negotiated Sadr-boy's attempt at splitting the Shia community and Zarqawi's attempts at creating sectarian war. If it takes having a lot of discussions over tea and a unified "slate of candidates" to kick off democracy there, that's a pretty good first step IMO. |
| Posted by: rkb 2004-12-10 7:52:12 PM |
| #4 "Maidan" is "check, please!" in Mandarin Chinese :). |
| Posted by: gromky 2004-12-10 7:47:16 PM |
| #3 The WaPo had a great picture yesterday of the "tent city" the protesters created in the heart of Kiev. Acres of blue and gray camping tents...complete with a bright orange Christmas tree. |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-12-10 4:06:12 PM |
| #2 Absolutely so, lex! I hope this guy is right... my gut tells me people are not naturally automatons and, given, the opportunity - especially if it can be done anonymously, i.e. by secret ballot - will naturally choose the path that offers them choice and freedom. Having been immersed in an Arab society for a stretch of years, my confidence is shaken (but not stirred, heh), but Afghanistan seems to bode well - even for Arabs. The fly in the Iraqi ointment is that, for reasons that sure as hell elude me, they chose that idiotic "slate of candidates" bullshit as opposed to bona-fide representative government... Sigh. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-12-10 4:01:32 PM |
| #1 What amazing times we live in! I remember the sea-change that was the replacement of Ferdinand Marcos by people power, with US support, in 1986. Then the end of the Soviet Empire three years later. And now the replacement of fascist and theocratic regimes in Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and perhaps in Palestine and Iran as well. Imagine: our children may come to know a world in which democracy, messy and imperfect as it is, prevails from Cuba clear across to North Korea. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-12-10 3:42:16 PM |