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| Terror Networks & Islam |
| The Many Branches of Al Qaeda |
| 2004-12-23 |
| Long article, but a nice roundup of what's going on: December 23, 2004: The war on terrorist organizations gets a lot less media attention than does the war with terrorists. The terrorist violence in Iraq, Israel, Chechnya, Kashmir, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Philippines, Indonesia and a few other places gets a reporters attention. But there are more important developments, with the terrorist organizations, that we hear little about. There's a good reason for that, as the war against the terrorist organizations is an intelligence operation. Espionage agents, informants, spy satellites and electronic eavesdropping are the principal weapons. The action, such as it is, takes place in the shadows, and doesn't make much noise. Because of the secret war against al Qaeda, a lot is known about the organization. This is mainly because most of the members are not very well educated in areas like OPSEC (operational security, keeping the enemy from observing your activities). Email and phone messages are caught and recorded, while couriers, and what they are carrying, are captured regularly. Fallujah yielded a large haul of al Qaeda documents, as have raids in Pakistan and elsewhere. Hardly any of this stuff is leaked to the media, lest al Qaeda find out how much the infidels know. But despite their bumbling and amateurish efforts, al Qaeda members are out to kill. They get their act together from time to time and pull off a major operation. Until the movement dies out, which may take a generation, the war on terror will continue. Al Qaeda is not one organization, like the CIA, MI-6 or Mossad. Al Qaeda is a coalition of over three dozen terrorist groups that cooperate, often loosely, in their war against the infidels (non-Moslems). At the moment, the most powerful branch of al Qaeda is the one operating in Iraq. And that's because there, al Qaeda has joined forces with the Baath Party, which is trying to return the Sunni Arabs to power in Iraq. This reaffirms an old truism in the terrorist world; you can't succeed without money and a population to provide support. Anywhere there are Moslems, you will find some who either approve of al Qaeda's goals (converting the world to Islam), or are willing to support al Qaeda operations. The percentage of approvers is large, often a third or more of Moslem populations. The percentage of supporters is much smaller. You can see this from the small number of al Qaeda terrorist operations around the world. With millions of Moslems in North American and Europe, there have been very few al Qaeda terror attacks. In fact, those two areas have seen just one in the past three years. It's a different story in Moslem countries, where al Qaeda goals also include replacing the current kings, dictators, or corrupt democracies, with better government. One thing that must always be kept in mind is that the Moslem world is, for the most part, poorly governed and economically backward. A lot of the support for al Qaeda is actually rage at the inability of Moslems to get their act together in the governance and economics department. Most Moslems recognize that al Qaeda is just one more bad idea to afflict Islamic nations. But for the moment, the al Qaeda crowd are winning the PR war. That will change over time, but for now, al Qaeda is killing people. Most of those being killed are Moslems. The most active al Qaeda affiliates are in countries where there are other issues in play. For example: Chechnya - The Chechens have been part of Russia for over a century, and have been fighting the Russians, on and off, most of that time. The current bout of violence is winding down, but has left in its wake a very effective, and bloody minded, group of Islamic terrorists. The Russians, as they have done so many times before, are in the process of killing all the Islamic terrorists in Chechnya, or driving them into exile. But this process still has another year or so to go. Saudi Arabia - Al Qaeda's biggest financial supporters are here, as are one of the largest pools of recruits. Saudi Arabia is the source of the strict, violent and paranoid form of Islam (Wahhabism) that serves as al Qaeda's religious foundation. The family (the al Sauds) that rules Saudi Arabia also subscribes to Wahhabism. So the battle in this kingdom is over which Wahhabist faction will be dominant. The smart money is on the al Sauds, but you never know. Afghanistan - The Taliban are sort of al Qaeda Lite. Real al Qaeda are operating in Afghanistan, but many of the Taliban factions are turning against them. The majority of Afghans care for neither Taliban nor al Qaeda. But at the moment, the Afghan al Qaeda are getting a lot of money and manpower from Pakistani, and other, al Qaeda organizations. This is largely because al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is hiding somewhere along the Afghan/Pakistan border. So the Afghan al Qaeda will continue to be a minor problem until the outside support dries up, or bin Laden is caught. Pakistan - Before al Qaeda came along, Pakistan already had a lot of Islamic terrorists. Most of their battles were with each other, the Pakistani government, or Indian police in the disputed border province of Kashmir. Current cooperation with al Qaeda is out of convenience. Al Qaeda itself is not popular, because many terror attacks have just killed lots of Pakistanis. Indonesia/Philippines - Much of the al Qaeda fervor in this region is because of continued friction between Moslems and non-Moslems. The local governments are corrupt and incompetent, thus making it easy for al Qaeda to maintain some out-of-the-way camps. Most of the locals don't care for al Qaeda, but a minority does. Europe - With some twenty million Moslems, this is a good area for fund raising, recruiting and hiding out. The recruits are usually born in Europe and have no first hand knowledge of the dark side of Moslem rule. But the whole al Qaeda bit is terribly romantic and inspiring to these lads. So they give money, and sometimes their lives, for the cause. The Europeans, usually tolerant to a fault, are growing impatient with these al Qaeda fans, and are cracking down. Israel- The Palestinians turned to terror four years ago when they did not get what they wanted through negotiations. The terror campaign failed, but the terrorist groups that evolved in the meantime don't want to stop, even though most Palestinians do. The Israelis were successful at shutting down the terror attacks on Israelis, and it's feared that many of the Palestinian terrorists will flee to other parts of the world, and keep on killing after a Palestinian civil war to decide the future of the war with Israel. Lebanon - The Shia minority, in order to repay Iran for aid during the 1975-90 civil war, allowed the terrorist group Hizbollah to set up shop in Lebanon. Hizbollah makes war on Israel as well, and has been aiding Palestinian terrorists. Allied with al Qaeda, Hizbollah sees itself as an "elder brother." Syria and Lebanon (and Israel) want to shut down Hizbollah, and send the survivors back to Iran. That may eventually happen. Iran - Although most of the population wants nothing to do with Islamic terrorism, the current constitution gives the Islamic radical minority veto power over government actions. The Islamic radicals will fight to death if the majority attempts to change the constitution. Right now, most Iranians are not willing to fight for their freedom. Iranian Moslems are Shia, and al Qaeda considers Shia heretics (and has murdered many of them.) The Iranian Islamic radicals overlook this at the moment, because they, and al Qaeda both have the same goal, planet wide Islamic rule. Unfortunately, al Qaeda wants everyone to be Sunni Moslems. That will cause problems with the Shia Moslems in Iran, who want a Shia world. About five percent of all Moslems are Shia (most live in Iran and Iraq. ) So Iran provides some support for al Qaeda. Central Asia - The al Qaeda leadership from this part of the world were killed in Afghanistan during the late 2001 fighting. But they are slowly rebuilding. Algeria - Islamic terrorists have been fighting the government, and most Algerians, for over a decade. However, the Islamic radicals have been losing, and are dispersing to other countries. So you will see Algerian terrorists showing up in other countries more than in Algeria. Somalia - The country has been without a government for over a decade. Some al Qaeda groups have set up shop here. But because of the chaos, there is not a lot they can do. American Special Forces and commandoes keep an eye on the situation, occasionally going in to take prisoners or stop something from happening. No press releases are issued about these operations. Sub-Saharan Africa - Lots of Islamic radicalism here, but not a lot of enthusiasm for al Qaeda. Islamic radicals are seen as a bunch of ruthless killers, and treated as such. South America - Moslem criminal gangs provide some support services for al Qaeda, but otherwise there is not a lot of support. Moslems are a very small minority down there, and they don't want to trigger an anti-Islamic attitude because of al Qaeda terrorism in the region. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #3 looks like somebody at strat page went to the same conference Dan Darling attended. His write-up is rather more sophisticated and insightful, and is up at Windsofchange.net |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-12-23 12:02:31 PM |
| #2 Where's Monsanto when you need it! Pour some Roundup® on the roots. |
| Posted by: Sobiesky 2004-12-23 10:55:28 AM |
| #1 The Many Branches of Al Qaeda Cutting them off one by one is the way to trim the tree. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-12-23 10:29:12 AM |