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China-Japan-Koreas
Fukuyama: Build New Asian Alliance System-- Make Five-Power Forum Permanent
2005-01-08
Long past time we shifted our attention away from Europe toward Asia. Fukuyama has some good ideas here. Excerpt:
A five-power forum [comprising the US, Japan, SoKorea, China and Russia, along the lines of the OSCE] would be particularly useful in dealing with several foreseeable problems. The first is a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime. In the short run, such an implosion would cause huge difficulties: coordinating relief efforts, dealing with refugees, paying for reconstruction, and containing any violence that might ensue. Over the long run, the political deck in Northeast Asia would be reshuffled: the rationale for the U.S.-South Korean alliance would disappear, and tensions between a unified Korea and Japan and China could rise for reasons already indicated--all of which would be easier to tackle in a pre-existing multilateral setting.

Another issue is Japanese rearmament. Japan will not revise Article 9 this year or the next, but the handwriting is on the wall. Although rearmament should not threaten China and Korea, they will have many incentives to hype a new Japanese threat; China, in particular, has used anti-Japanese sentiment to bolster the communist regime's nationalist credentials. Germany, which rearmed and has been moving down a similar path toward "normalcy," moderated the threat by encasing its sovereignty in several international institutions, including NATO, the EU, and the UN. A Japanese return to normality will seem much less threatening if done within a regional security organization as well as a continuing bilateral relationship with the United States. But the new group's relevance wouldn't stop there. A fully nuclear North Korea, a possible Asian arms race, the implications of Chinese military modernization--these are just a few of the potential problems a five-power body could tackle.
Posted by:lex

#8  The big story is Asia. The anti-Iraq War conservatives are right in one sense-- and only one sense: the islamist menace is nothing compared to the Chinese threat. Which is complex and extremely difficult for this country to handle. As Fukuyama points out, the type of nation we find most difficult to handle is that which is neither completely an ally nor completely an enemy.
Posted by: lex   2005-01-08 9:52:56 PM  

#7  Iran would be much easier to handle if we had a united front with India and Russia. The Euros are at best ineffectual and at worst undermining the cause of containing Iran.
Posted by: lex   2005-01-08 10:14:44 AM  

#6  It will pass quickly for us. Iraq will cease to be our problem in another 18 months or so. Iran will not pass quickly but AQ and the other jihadists have already shifted their focus to Europe and SE Asia.
Posted by: lex   2005-01-08 10:13:19 AM  

#5  "The islamist threat is a passing phenomenon whose importance for us (but not for Europe) will steadily diminish over the next 3-5 years."

Wow. Do you really think it will pass that quickly? I'm not arguing it can't; but for me the question has been, will my grandchildren be the last to have to fight in this war against Islamic totalitarianism-- or will it be my great-grandchildren?

As I see it, this war has been going on since at least as far back as November 4, 1979; the Islamoloonies have been in a state of war with us ever since then, but we chose to ignore them until 9/11. Myself, I suspect this will be going on a lot longer than 3-5 years.

Just my opinion...
Posted by: Dave D.   2005-01-08 9:35:26 AM  

#4  Russia's importance is as a replacement for arab and persian oil, period. Which is hugely important to China and India.
Posted by: lex   2005-01-08 9:21:16 AM  

#3  The islamist threat is a passing phenomenon whose importance for us (but not for Europe) will steadily diminish over the next 3-5 years. Asia's rise to global pre-eminence is here to stay, and far more important to us.

At some point in his second term Bush will have to shift focus from the middle east to China-Japan-Korea. And also figure out how to fit India into the mix.
Posted by: lex   2005-01-08 9:19:47 AM  

#2  That's a good group for Korea but in general I'd rather India than Russia. Russia is too European and in decline. The Chinese are going to take their eastern lands. Let's stay out of it.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-01-08 9:05:00 AM  

#1  heh...funny how it happens. One day we are all looking east, and then we swing our heads around and start looking west.

I always believed that we would form an uneasy alliance with Russia and China. The Islamists are as much a threat to them as they are to us. And with NOKORs drooling wacko - the new alliance was inevitable.
Posted by: 2b   2005-01-08 7:50:22 AM  

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