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| Iraq-Jordan |
| Round Up the Usual Suspects, Dead or Alive |
| 2005-01-10 |
| January 9, 2005: For nearly two years, American intelligence units have been collecting information on Baath Party resistance inside, and outside, Iraq. It was this kind of information that led to the capture of Saddam Hussein a year ago. Actually, many intelligence officers were shocked when they saw the news stories detailing how the data on Baath Party officials, and their kinfolk, was collected and organized according to what jobs people had in Baath, or Saddam's government, and who was related to who. Letting the enemy know what you know is something you avoid doing. However, describing Baath as "one big family" had a lot of truth to it. Especially in the Middle East, family ties often reinforce political ones. It was a mistake to let the Baath Party know how well American intelligence had done in sorting out who was who in Saddam's support and security network, although the Baath Party intelligence experts were probably not surprised that the Americans were making lists and cross referencing them. This is basic police intelligence work. These thousands of intelligence troops have not been idle for the past year, but they have been more circumspect. They have shared information with the Iraqi government, which accounts for the head of Iraqi intelligence recently announcing that the anti-government resistance was being kept going by 40,000 active fighters, and 400,000 supporters. Oddly enough, this matches the number of Baath Party activists and core members of Saddam's secret police and security forces (and their extended families), based on known (and previously published) information on Baath and Saddam's government. For a brief moment a year ago, the news was full of stories of how American intelligence specialists, using pretty standard investigative techniques (and current database and analysis software), picked up the usual suspects, interrogated them (asking seemingly innocuous questions about who was related to who), and assembled the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle which, when finished, said "Saddam is right here
" The puzzle of the growing, at least in the number of people killed, anti-government attacks shows a lot of the key people, especially the money guys, operating across the border in Syria. These men can go no where else. Not Iran, because these men have much Shia blood on their hands. Even the most rabidly anti-American Iranian Islamic zealots would not want to be associated with one of Saddam's butchers. North Korea? Possibly. But first you have to get there, and then you have to realize that North Korea is a bit of hell on earth itself, and on the brink of collapse. How about Somalia? Only if you are into the "Mad Max" lifestyle, and American commandoes are just next door. Any other country presents the risk of an international arrest warrant, and a local government eager to enforce it. So Saddam's old cronies sit in Syria, paying off the Syrian Baath Party with stolen Iraqi oil money, and profuse apologies for past feuding and misunderstandings over which nations Baath Party was the senior one. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #5 Do it the way we did it during the Indian wars. Set tribe against tribe. Pick somee tribes to get privileged status. They only get the privileges, and continue to keep them, if they work against the outlaw tribes. |
| Posted by: DO 2005-01-10 8:32:05 PM |
| #4 DO points out one of the keys, not yet exploited, to bringing this insurgency under control. It's about realizing how they thin and forgetting what makes sense to a Westerner. The entire society subscribes to a loyalty pyramid of family, clan, and tribe. There are considerable spices tossed in: flavor of Islam, Iraqi, Arab, Muslim First, et al, b ut they are secondary to that blood and politics trio. Want to control a family? You take the Patriarch and his top scions. Want to control a clan? Take the Clan Leader, his top scions, and his council, the Family Patriarchs. Want to control a tribe? You get the idea. And tribe is where the action is. The decisions are made here: Benign Example... We protect the pipeline where it crosses "our lands" cuz we're being paid by the Coalition to do so, just like Saddam did. The jihadis are threatening one of us? Okay, let them blow it up. It'll only be out of commission a few days, we'll explain we can't be 100% perfect - the infidels will forgive us, and the jihadis will get press coverage. For them, Saddam is little different from the Iraqi Gov't. They expect to wheel 'n deal with it - and receive concessions in their territory. Malignant Example... We will support and hide the "fighters". We will help in smuggling in the cash and explosives, taking only our "cut". We will supply them with the hotheads and willing / malleable young men of the tribe. On the surface, despite how common the knowledge is that they are involved, they will take the same approach with the Gov't: cut us some deals and conceed to us control of our traditional territory. Take the Tribal Leader and his council of Clan Leaders and turn The Brits have tried the soft side of this, using bribery, and had it blow up in their faces, so I believe they have backed off of any large-scale deals. It is well past time to remove the bad Tribal Leaders and Clan Leaders, but anytime will do better than never. Shake the whole Sunni heirarchy up. Offer the jihadi Tribal Lands to the more moderate / benign Tribes - and back them up militarily. Start a fire in their tent. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-01-10 7:42:52 PM |
| #3 The fuzzy middle will be used for intel gathering and leverage will be required in order to compel them to devulge. In this regard, it will revert to Sunni versus Sunni-Saddam loyalists. This compelled intel will accelerate the network-based investigation, and more speedily roll up the dead ender 8%. Happy huntin' folks. |
| Posted by: Captain America 2005-01-10 7:17:17 PM |
| #2 May I suggest dead? |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2005-01-10 2:15:41 PM |
| #1 About time! Until this job is actually completed the war will not be won. The current situation seems to be pretty much a bloody stalemate with the insurrection blocking any forward progress in a big part of Iraq and tying down a significant number of US ground forces. Both sides will continue to bleed for years unless something changes soon. IMO the Sunni leadership fence sitters should also be selectively targeted, at least for the arrest and hostage side of it, because they are providing financial and other aid to the insurrection. Until they get the idea that there is a cost to not supporting a new Iraqi government they will continue in the insurrection camp. When the choice is death from the Baathists vs. a stern lecture from the IIG they will of course comply with the Baathists, even if they would rather just get on with normal life. |
| Posted by: DO 2005-01-10 11:08:46 AM |