Wamid Nathmi, head of the small Pan-Arab Nationalist party, is boycotting Iraq's first democratic elections on Sunday. But unlike many Sunni politicians, he dismisses gloomy predictions that the vote will spark sectarian warfare. "I don't know what all the fuss is about; I don't see why there's all this talk of civil war," he says. "It's an election for a national assembly that will only be there for one year."A secular Arab nationalist, Mr Nathmi is also spokesman for the Iraqi National Council, an opposition movement that includes both Sunni and Shia political groups. The boycott by many Sunni Arab parties and the expected low turnout in Sunni provinces has raised fears of a more bloody insurgency. The Shia are set to emerge as the biggest winners in the elections while the Sunni, who dominated the old regime, will feel disenfranchised. But the boycott is not purely sectarian. Mr Nathmi points to the absence of the Shia movement led by Moqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand cleric who revolted against US troops last summer. Facing pressure from top Shia clergy and from the US, Mr Sadr has not campaigned against the election, in spite of his opposition to it. He has also allowed some members of his movement to stand as candidates.
Mr Nathmi's Iraqi National Council has the same demands as the armed insurgents - namely the withdrawal of US troops - but has pledged to work peacefully towards this goal, and has been seen by western diplomats as a political opposition that could be negotiated with. The Council has developed good ties with both the Sadr movement and the influential Council of Sunni Muslim scholars. The Sunni-Shia movement had considered taking part in the poll. But the conditions it set - including a declaration of ceasefire across Iraq and the withdrawal of US troops from main cities - were rejected. Shortly after the movement issued its demands late last year, US troops launched a massive offensive in the Sunni town of Falluja, further undermining the group's willingness to participate in the poll. But Mr Nathmi says the weekend vote should be put in perspective: it is only one step in Iraq's postwar transition. The main task of the national assembly will be to draft Iraq's constitution. Sunni opposition leaders, even if unelected, could still be involved in constitutional committees.