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China-Japan-Koreas
Robyn Lim: A bully in need of a real fright
2005-02-15
NORTH Korea has crossed two red lines. It has admitted, for the first time, that it possesses nuclear weapons and intends to keep building them. Moreover, the unravelling of the Pakistan-based A.Q. Khan network has apparently proved that North Korea sold enriched uranium that ended up in Libya. Alexander Downer's spokesman says that Australia "places a lot of faith" in the six-party talks that North Korea has just walked out of. Let's hope that's just diplomatic pablum.

It's time to face facts. The US cannot live with a nuclear-armed North Korea that is not only a menace to its neighbours, but also willing to sell fissile material to other rogue states and terrorist groups. This president is not going to let that happen on his watch. And Australia has vital interests at stake, not least because a nuclear-armed North Korea will eventually be able to threaten us with missiles. That's an illustration of the fact that serious threats can arise far from our shores. The North Korean nuclear problem, bubbling away for more than a decade, cannot be resolved by diplomatic means. Nuclear weapons are vital for regime survival. They will not be abandoned, whatever incentives are offered. And North Korea has an unmatched record of lying and cheating. So the key to resolution of this crisis without war is to convince China that it must now pull the plug on Pyongyang.

That means convincing Beijing that its current behaviour is contrary to its own long-term interests. China, in seeking to point North Korea at the US and Japan, helped arm it with missile technology. Worse, there is reason to think that China's military has been involved with the A.Q. Khan network. It seems likely that Michael Green, senior director for Asia on the National Security Council, presented this evidence to President Hu Jintao at their recent meeting. Presumably it came as no surprise. But China has succeeded only in creating a Frankenstein's monster in North Korea. A "borrowed knife" strategy always entails the risk that the knife might not remain under control. China has been unable to control North Korea, or prevent it from acting in ways that injure China's own interests. That is particularly so in relation to Japan, which has so far remained content to rely on the American nuclear umbrella. But given North Korea's missile-rattling and explicit threats to Japan, China cannot be sure that North Korea will not provoke the nuclear armament of Japan. Indeed, the governor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara, is a prominent hawk. He is also a Gaullist who has argued for three decades that no country can afford to entrust another with its nuclear security.
Posted by:tipper

#16  Doc - LOL - I think the one on the right is Burgess Meredith, as Penguin
Posted by: Frank G   2005-02-15 10:47:58 PM  

#15  I can't get past that picture either. That has got to be the ugliest man on the planet. The dork on the left ain't no picnic either.
Posted by: Doc8404   2005-02-15 10:45:20 PM  

#14  It's not for nothing that Koizumi got troops into Iraq. It was the first step to remilitarizing.
Posted by: too true   2005-02-15 9:46:58 PM  

#13  Who needs implied threats! Personally, I'd publicly offer to loan a few nukes to Japan for long-term joint training exercises.
Posted by: Tom   2005-02-15 9:31:40 PM  

#12  Mrs. D - Agreed that the threat of a nuclear Japan is definitely a scenario the NKors haven't thoroughly thought out. The US would be the least of their worries. And China's for that matter.

The conventional wisdom is that the Japanese have had a secret nuclear program for years - could have the weapon assembled within a month. This implied threat is the key to our negotiations.
Posted by: JP   2005-02-15 9:27:35 PM  

#11  JP, NK is China's problem long before it's ours. Who's NK going to intimidate? Only South Korea and maybe Russia. So we should withdraw and give the Japanese the green light to start nuke development if Chicoms have not cleaned out the rats' nest in 30 days.

Iran looks to being worked on. And Israel won't let that one happen.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-02-15 7:43:05 PM  

#10  I can't get past the picture.

China has to know that a nuclear NK will result in a nuclear Japan.

It is now time to pull our forces out of Iraq - consolidate rearm and tackle the remaining two plank owners in the axis of evil club. Let others worry about nation building in Iraq - its time for NK and Iran to worry about us.

Posted by: JP   2005-02-15 7:30:12 PM  

#9  Maybe the South should have a giant festival on the Southern Tip of penninsula and try to get everyone from Seoul to attend. When they are gone the South should do the Swift strikes to take Pyongyang, wipe out the Korean Workers Party officials, and capture the nuke facilities as well as a drive to the other side of the DMZ to capture and destroy the artillery there.

Then the rebuilding of Seoul and the North can begin.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2005-02-15 3:28:55 PM  

#8  I like Lileks idea, challenge them to have a nuclear test to prove they have the bomb, then nuke the test site before the test actually happens. Seems your nukes are a bit unstable kimmie.

The other option is to go to China and tell them the Japanese are a month from having nukes and we can't stop them any longer. The only thing that can stop them is sanity in North Korea.

Oh and tell the Chinese that it's likely North and South Korea will reunite into a capitalist stronghold someday and the way things are going the united Korea will have nukes and missiles capable of hitting anywhere in China. Perhaps they might want to do something about that before it happens rather than after when the unified Korea falls into the US nuclear umbrella and such a move against Korea might scare the Japanese into action.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2005-02-15 3:18:09 PM  

#7  Swift strikes to take Pyongyang, wipe out the Korean Workers Party officials, and capture the nuke facilities.

Well, there is that little matter of the thousands of dug-in artillary pieces ready to turn Seoul into a smoking ruin. I'll wager they'll have some kind of standing orders to open fire in case of attack. That's what I would do.
Posted by: Steve   2005-02-15 2:04:08 PM  

#6  Interesting background for the author:

Robyn Lim, ICAS Fellow, is professor of international politics at Nanzan University, Nagoya, Japan. Her book, The Geopolitics of East Asia, will be published by CurzonRoutledge (UK) on 16 May 2003. From 1988 to 1994, Dr Lim worked for the Office of National Assessments (ONA) in Canberra. ONA is Australia's national foreign intelligence assessment agency.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-02-15 12:28:17 PM  

#5  CS its concievable that NK could have an 'accident' while gloating over their latest toy.

I would not wish that on the North Korean people (you know, the non-ruling class) but it might wake people up.
Posted by: CrazyFool   2005-02-15 12:02:47 PM  

#4  I am betting that somewhere in South Korea, there is a General (or two) is contemplating the matter. North Korea is ripe for rebellion and the people are literally starving to death. Swift strikes to take Pyongyang, wipe out the Korean Workers Party officials, and capture the nuke facilities. It would take less than 72 hours if done at the right time. FYI Wednesday is Kim Jong Il’s birthday and all officials are probably required to attend the party.
Posted by: Cyber Sarge   2005-02-15 11:54:27 AM  

#3  The more I read and learn about the Aussies and their amazing sense of reality, the more I have come to appreciate their being our ally. I hope Japan continues to stay the course and (hopefully) South Korea will "wake up and smell the coffee" soon too.
Posted by: BA   2005-02-15 9:02:37 AM  

#2  phil_b - sad but true.
Posted by: 2b   2005-02-15 3:51:05 AM  

#1  There seems to have been a major outbreak of realism concerning NK, perhaps becuase the Europeans are not involved.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-15 12:36:27 AM  

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