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| Forecast Calls for US Dominance, European Disintegration |
| 2005-02-15 |
| Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue to dominate the next decade both economically and militarily; and the U.S. is "positioned to replicate the investment boom of the 1995- 2005 decade." The forecast also says the U.S. gradually will shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific basin. Stratfor predict the U.S. will triumph over the "jihadist" insurgents; and it predicts "major leadership transitions" in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The forecast also says Europe's political union will collapse but its economic union will endure. Tensions will increase over Muslim immigration to European nations, the analysis said. And it said Russian attempts to expand could present new problems. Russia is collapsing and will become increasingly nationalist and anti-Western, Stratfor said in a "highlights" press release. China's economic growth will slow down, the analysis predicted, leading to a "flight of investment." Moreover, China will experience "social upheavals" because of the gulf between rich and poor. Japan will succeed China as the principal Asian power, and Taiwan will align itself with Japan, the forecast said. Stratfor, based in Austin, Texas, said it draws on a global network of intelligence sources in formulated its global analyses. |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #10 The last time the notion of Chinese collapse came up here, ZF came forward and argued persuasively against it. ZF, to the white courtesy phone, if you please... |
| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2005-02-15 7:35:04 PM |
| #9 China declining I see. But Japan ascendant? Don't they have to start reproducing first? EU political union will collapse when the first major country nixes that monstrosity of a constitution. |
| Posted by: someone 2005-02-15 6:24:48 PM |
| #8 What's going to stop China's economic development? An old-fashioned overinvestment-driven market crash. The yuan undervaluation and wild-west investment bubble is unsustainable. The longer they put off currency adjustment, the uglier the crash. That's short-term. Long-term, China's demographics are hair-raising. I said earlier that Japan's demographics dictate that they'll never be as big a power as they might have been in the Eighties. China's forty-year demographic curve looks like Japan's on a meth bender. I seem to remember seeing numbers indicating that China's going to hit Japanese demographics by 2040, demo-crashing far quicker than any developed nation on record. Blame the one-child policy for that catastrophe on the horizon. Luckily, it's not in the next ten years or so, as I understand it. |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2005-02-15 5:35:45 PM |
| #7 Did this forecast address the alloy of anti-American public opinion and spontaneous foreign collaboration against a common perceived threat? I'm no scientist, and I of course would defer to those who are, but this sounds a bit rosy to me. I would say that a good understanding of human nature is not an unimportant consideration when forecasting. |
| Posted by: Jules 187 2005-02-15 4:26:50 PM |
| #6 China may experience political problems but nothing will stop its economic development. Japan's demographics mean continued relative decline. I think Europe's political integration may well fail because there is no compelling rationale for it. Russia? Its the wildcard. It could still disintegrate and tempt the Chinese into a landgrab and a fullblown shooting war. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-02-15 4:09:34 PM |
| #5 --leading to a "flight of investment.-- No shit, sherlock - Bros. Judd last week, already happening. Check out Econopundit's archives last week, too. |
| Posted by: anonymous2u 2005-02-15 2:51:16 PM |
| #4 I don't know. A Stratfor analysis and fifty cents won't get you a cup of coffee, unless you're dating the barrista. As little respect as I have for the political EU, I can't see them going away in the next ten-fifteen years. There's too much bureaucratic momentum. Twenty-five years? Yeah, I could see it, after the demographics have their way with the rotting core nations. As for the Middle East, ten years strikes me as a very fast resolution, at the current pace. A Chinese economic slowdown and political flameout could be predicted by a bright ten-year-old, but Japan isn't going to be any kind of regional power, ever. Their moment has passed. The demographics and the cultural factors don't favor any sort of resurgence. I figure the most likely dominant factor will be some sort of Asian-Tigers alliance - South Korea, Singapore, maybe Thailand and Malaysia, Taiwan and Japan, backed by a Indian-American guarantee. But in ten years? The North Korean collapse, in the next three years or so, will probably end with a Chinese protectorate over whatever remains once the storm breaks. The form of the anti-Chinese alliance depends on how much is left of Seoul after the dust clears, I suppose. If the occupation of North Korea goes easily, then the nationalist mainlanders will be emboldened, and we'll see a major bloweup over Taiwan inside of the ten-year period. If it's a quagmire, and the nationalists get tied up chasing Korean hillbillies in the frozen wastes, then the Taiwanese get a generational reprieve. |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2005-02-15 2:26:50 PM |
| #3 I'm sure there is plenty of background and color for those who spend thousands to buy a Stratfor subscription. But this very much in line with the kind of analyses I've seen here. I just hope the Stratfor analysts are better at their jobs than the pollsters who so built up Democratic hopes last November. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2005-02-15 11:59:08 AM |
| #2 It is frustrating to read this because it lacks background and color, and because it is not tempered with provisions. For example, the European political union may functionally collapse, but it may take as long as the HRE to do so, remaining a marginal and impotent framework for a thousand years, literally. Russia has always vacillated between Europhilism and Euroscepticism, a split personality that is both European and Asian in character. What may tip the balance is the opening of the northern route to North America--which will also strongly culturally impact North America. China is a question mark, and Japan faces many social revolutions like the US did in the 1960s--not to mention being dead center for possible natural disasters. I wholly agree that the US will shift its emphasis *back* to SE Asia and the Pacific; but there is now a "*second* America", "outpost Iraq", that has the potential to become an economic and military nexus for the other side of the planet, influencing Central Asia, Africa and the entire Middle East. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-02-15 11:25:39 AM |
| #1 Oh that is gonna piss off the eurowinnies. |
| Posted by: mmurray821 2005-02-15 11:04:35 AM |