BAGHDAD - Shiite politician and former exile Ibrahim al-Jaafari emerged as the front-runner on Tuesday to become Iraq's new prime minister as horse-trading to decide who gets what job in the next government entered final stages. Jaafari, a physician and father of five, is the leader of the Dawa Party, one of two leading religious parties in the United Iraqi Alliance, a Shiite led group which won 48 percent of the vote in Iraq's elections on Jan. 30. "The competition is still fierce but it appears so far that Jaafari will be the United Iraqi Alliance candidate because Dawa is insisting on him," a senior Shiite source told Reuters.While short of the 60 percent the alliance had expected, the win puts the coalition in a commanding position to take the top job in the next government. A two-thirds majority is needed in the newly elected National Assembly to form a government.
The United Iraqi Alliance, which is blessed by top Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is headed by Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), both of which opposed Saddam Hussein from exile in Iran. The source said SCIRI, headed by Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, had agreed to support Jaafari and withdraw its candidate, Finance Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, "to preserve the unity of the alliance", which some had feared could collapse after the vote.
But the source said a final deal was unlikely to be concluded on Tuesday as other details about the new government, including who gets which ministries, must still be worked out.
Analysts expect the Kurds, who took 25 percent of the vote, to play a key role in the talks as Iraqis look towards a reduction and eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops. The Kurds' powerful showing puts them in a kingmaker role -- if they ally with the Shiite alliance, the pair would have more than two-thirds in the assembly. The Kurds have said they want Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, to be Iraq's president. If that is the case, they are likely to support the Shiite list's choice for prime minister.
While the Shiite bloc won slightly less than half the vote, it could end up with about 140 seats in the assembly -- two more than a majority -- once all those votes that went to candidates who didn't get enough to secure a seat are redistributed. That could happen by the end of the week, provided the final tally is certified on Wednesday as expected.
The Kurds' second place showing means they will get around 70 seats in the assembly. A list headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi came third and will have about 40 seats. Sunni Arabs, most of whom either boycotted the vote or did not turn out because of violence, look set to get barely five seats in the assembly, leaving Iraq's once dominant minority out in the cold, raising fresh fears of sectarian attacks.
| Or, as we saw in the news yesterday, a fresh appraisal of the Sunni strategy. |