| Executive summary: Armenia still belongs to Putin's "Warsaw Pact Lite", the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), but it's geographically cut off from the rest of the CSTO by non-members Georgia and Azerbaijan. The Armenian genocide and Turkey's support of Azerbaijan in the Karabakh mess have kept Armenia hostile toward NATO-member Turkey, souring relations with the whole alliance. But that seems to be changing, especially as John Q. Armenia realizes that Putin's Russia is a losing horse, and support for NATO and EU membership among Armenians is growing. Some recent NATO visitors to Yerevan made encouraging noises, and the Armenians responded in kind. Expect more efforts to get Turkey and Armenia on speaking terms, plus the inevitable umpteenth Karabakh iniative. Long term, Armenia jumping ship and joining NATO would be a major diplomatic and geopolitical pimp-slap across Putin's face, comparable (if not greater than) Kiev's "Orange Revolution." But one thing at a time here... |