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| Terror Networks & Islam |
| The New Head of Jihad Inc.? |
| 2005-03-28 |
| Mar. 28, 2005 - However big a shock a recent suicide bombing in Doha was to the Qataris, it was far from unexpected in Western capitals, where intelligence agencies had discreetly put out a travel warning through their respective embassies. The emirate, a key ally in the Bush administration's war on terror, has been high on the terrorist target list ever since it became home to the U.S. Central Command's operational headquarters in early 2003. Just five days before the March 19 blast, which killed a British teacher and wounded 12 others, the State Department issued a general warning to all Americans travelling in the Gulf that "extremists may be planning to carry out attacks against Westerners and oil workers" in the region. What did surprise intelligence officials was the name of the group which claimed responsibility for the bombing: Jund al-Sham ("Soldiers of the Levant"). Although the group said that this was its first statement, Jund al-Sham is the same name as a group started by the Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Intelligence officials believe it may be a sign that Zarqawi is beginning to attack targets outside Iraq, and may, in fact, be emerging as a replacement to Osama bin Laden as the operational leader of the global jihad. Analysts are concerned that Zarqawi may now begin to redeploy his cadre of militants who, having gained important combat experience in Iraq, are capable of carrying out deadly missions elsewhere. According to Jordanian government sources and European intelligence documents, Zarqawi first set up Jund al-Sham in Afghanistan in late 1999 with $200,000 in startup money from bin Laden. The group's objective was to operate in a geographical area known as the "Levant," which encompasses Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan where al Qaeda's presence was deemed too weak. Headed by Zarqawi, Jund al-Sham federated about 150 jihadis, including Jordanian Islamic militants exiled by the Jordanian government earlier that year, as well as various recruits from Syria (some holdouts of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood), and Lebanon (mostly Palestinian refugees of the movement "Asbat al Ansar"). These militants were trained in explosive, guerrilla warfare and chemical weapons techniques at a training facility ("Al Matar Training Camp") operated by Zarqawi near the Afghan city of Herat, close to the Iranian border. The Beginning of a New Phase? The group's stated objective, according to Jordanian intelligence documents, was a compromise between Zarqawi's obsession to destabilize the Jordanian monarchy and bin Laden's desire to conduct major terrorist operations in Israel. From Herat and Kabul, where the organization had its headquarters, its members started planning several terrorist operations, including the "Millennium Bombings" in Jordan in December 1999. Most of these plots were fortunately uncovered by the Jordanian intelligence which had sent its own recruits to "join" Jund al-Sham in Afghanistan in 1999. After 9/11 and the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan, the organization was visibly disbanded and most of its members, including Zarqawi himself, fled back to their home countries through Pakistan or Iran. Cut off from al Qaeda's financial support, Jund al-Sham somehow survived in 2002-2003 through its financial and logistical networks in Europe, Jordan, Syria and Iran, where terrorist "mogul" and former protégé of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Al-Quds corps, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, provided some help to Zarqawi himself during their contacts in Iran between November and December 2001. Even though most of its leaders, including Zarqawi, played a significant role in the insurgency campaign in Iraq, Jund al-Sham was believed scattered for all intents and purposes, and its objectives (the establishment of a Caliphate in the Levant) postponed to a later date, when the jihad in Iraq would have, as Afghanistan did in the 1980s and the late 1990s, produced a new generation of fighters. Last week's bombing in Doha may signal the beginning of that phase. Even though very little is known at this point about the Egyptian computer expert who exploded his car next to the Doha English Speaking School, Jund as Sham's comeback on the global terrorist scene in a country so remote from its initial area of operation seems to validate a number of developments recently picked up by U.S. and Iraqi intelligence services. This information is increasingly interpreted as indicating that Zarqawi, has emerged as the most important operational leader of the global jihad and even a possible replacement to bin Laden as the figurehead of the movement. New Networking Although far from complete, the global investigation into last year's Madrid bombings showed for example that Zarqawi, through senior associates in Syria, Italy and Spain, has taken over most of al Qaeda's remaining European networks. These have been put to work since 2003 to recruit and send volunteers to fight the jihad in Iraq. Last summer, Pakistani military units operating around Gandola in South Waziristan discovered what they described as six "terrorist training facilities" of various size. In several of them, the Pakistanis recovered documents indicating that Islamic militants had been trained there and sent to join Zarqawi's organization in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. Among these documents, according to Pakistani government sources, was the passport of one of Zarqawi's family members. None of these trends, however, is more significant in validating the thesis that Zarqawi is growing in prominence than two recent developments. The first is bin Laden's purported message to Zarqawi, in which he showed his admiration for the Jordanian and urged him to take the lead in the global jihad and start planning operations in the United States. The second, no less significant, was the taped speech by Saleh al Aufi on March 17 (which, according to some U.S. intelligence officials, gave a green light to the Doha bombing), in which the man named by Saudi authorities as "Al Qaeda's commander in Saudi Arabia", specifically pledged allegiance to Zarqawi, in terms that left very little room for interpretation about his desire to place himself under the Jordanian's command. Moreover, according to recent European intelligence reports, there already are serious indications that Zarqawi's networks in Iraq are experiencing serious operational difficulties, and have started sending some of their recruits back to their home countries not only in the Middle East but also in Europe. While it is too early to crown Zarqawi as the new head of "Jihad Inc.," and even if, according to Jordanian intelligence, he still very much aspires to that role, the thread of evidence indicating that he is fast moving in that direction is growing steadily. At a time when "Al Qaeda in Iraq's" toll is rising, its leaders arrested, and the overall foreign fighters phenomenon is increasingly isolated from the rest of the Sunni community in Iraq, there are more and more signs that Zarqawi has strengthened his control over parts of al Qaeda's "leftovers," and started putting in place the kind of global infrastructure with which to realize its global ambitions. While this could be a fairly encouraging tipping point in the Iraqi insurgency, it could emphasize a very significant shift in the larger war on terror: the regeneration of a global terrorist network which, far from being defeated, has learned from its operational failures and from the tactics of its enemies, In Iraq and elsewhere, to grow stronger, stealthier and deadlier. Alexis Debat, a former French Defense official, is a terrorism analyst and consultant to ABC News. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #5 Zarqawi only gets to be the big guy because the top levels of the organization have been removed, one way or another. Not to mention a good portion of middle and bottom level personnel as well. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2005-03-28 7:05:59 PM |
| #4 Steve, can't you picture Zarq at the (hypothetical) Al-Q after action meeting, pacing around the table, waving his hands and saying, "After all I've done for you..." |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2005-03-28 5:02:03 PM |
| #3 While it is too early to crown Zarqawi as the new head of "Jihad Inc.," and even if, according to Jordanian intelligence, he still very much aspires to that role, the thread of evidence indicating that he is fast moving in that direction is growing steadily. The al-Qaeda troops in the field have only seen a public relations statement from Binny every once and a while, but no big operation. Zarqawi is (at least in the Islamist media) waging a Holy war against the infidel American occupation forces on a daily basis. The fact they're getting their asses kicked doesn't seem to matter, he's at least doing something. From their perspective, he's the strong horse, so they flock to his banner. I've been saying for a long time that Zarqawi fancies himself wearing the Golden Turban. I know he's not one of the chosen people from the Magic Kingdom, he and his followers from non-Arab places like Europe may think otherwise. |
| Posted by: Steve 2005-03-28 4:55:42 PM |
| #2 short version: Zarqo is losing in Iraq. AQ cells in Euro and Mideast, while hard hit, survive. But are cut off from HQ in (Pakistani safe house/Iranian palace/Afghan cave - take your pick) And Zarq is taking over the networks, giving him a new life after Iraq. So what - our strategy against the network - intell and LE against the network itself, military action,direct and indirect (support for locals) whereever the net threatens to establish a new base, and democracy promotion and econ. development and public diplo to drain the swamp -remains the same. Note also - acknowledgement of the Iran-Hekmatyar ties. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2005-03-28 3:43:26 PM |
| #1 Out of the quag and into the mire. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-03-28 3:37:16 PM |