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Caribbean-Latin America
StrategyPage: Venezuela Gets Ready For Civil War
2005-03-31
Venezuela is having problems with the loyalty of its armed forces. The current government is run by a former army officer Hugo Chavez. Normally, that would not be a problem. But Chavez sees himself as another Fidel Castro. That is, the rebel Castro before he proclaimed himself a hard core communist. Chavez wants social revolution in Venezuela, but many, perhaps a majority, of Venezuelans don't want to be another Cuba. While Venezuela's oil wealth has not been distributed equally, it has created a large middle class. This includes the military. Many of the troops are nervous about Chavez, and his social programs. Even some of Chavez's military decisions have caused unease among officers and troops. For example, Chavez is now buying military equipment from Russia. This includes helicopters (nine Mi-17s and one Mi-26) for the navy. The navy considers these helicopters unsuitable for naval use. The sailors are correct, but the price is cheap, and Chavez wants to make a political point.

The army is unhappy about the cozy relationship between Chavez and leftist rebel groups in neighboring Colombia. Venezuelan troops have been operating more aggressively along the Colombian border. This is officially a crackdown on the smugglers who always have operated there. But the Venezuelan troops are accused to of really going after the Colombian rebels, or supporting them. Take your pick. No one is sure exactly what is going on.

To top it all off, Chavez is now organizing a new army, one loyal to him personally. This is part of his plan create "Bolivarian Circles of Venezuela Frontline Defense for National Democratic Revolution." These are political clubs all over the country, particularly in poor areas, where Chavez has the most support. Chavez expects to have 2.2 million members, who will be the backbone of the "democratic revolution unfolding in Venezuela." What upsets the armed forces is Chavezs decision to pass out infantry weapons to these political clubs, so that his new political clubs can use force to "defend the revolution." There are believed to be Cuban advisors involved in this effort. This sort of mass organization has been used before in Latin America, by both leftist and rightist dictators (pro-fascist Juan Peron of Argentina, and communist Fidel Castro of Cuba.) But by passing out guns to his most dedicated followers, Chavez is angering the military, making the middle class even more nervous, and setting the stage for a bloody civil war.
Posted by:Marquis DeSadov

#10  You've got it, Frank. I'm pretty sure they have some long knives down there.
Posted by: Asedwich   2005-03-31 10:17:13 PM  

#9  how long before the ideological purges in the professional military ranks, amigos? 4 (weeks)? soon. Let's talk.

Sincerely
W
Posted by: Frank G   2005-03-31 8:54:09 PM  

#8  So, does the bona-fide Venezuelan military have the stones to stop this tin pot dictator - while he can still be stopped? Forming a private army certainly should be the wake-up call to anyone truly dense enough to think he's not a dictator in the making.

Go ahead, gentlemen, remove this wart from Venezuela's nose - now! You know you'll get all the support you need from you know where and you know who. That's right - the Venezuelans. He stole the election - you'll have tons of support. Just do it.
Posted by: .com   2005-03-31 8:26:21 PM  

#7  "Bolivarian Circles of Venezuela Frontline Defense for National Democratic Revolution."

But where's the socialist bit? Or does that come later? 'cuz you know, it all starts out with those innocuous political clubs.
Posted by: Asedwich   2005-03-31 8:15:06 PM  

#6  damn cookies. Here - everyone pass em around, apparently I'm not using all mine
Posted by: Frank G   2005-03-31 4:45:06 PM  

#5  I was referring to that extensive current middle class in Cuba
Posted by: Cartman   2005-03-31 4:44:13 PM  

#4  Frank G, the major "heros" of the Cuban Revolution were in fact well to do Middle Class.

Their opponents as well, of course.
Posted by: True German Ally   2005-03-31 4:41:06 PM  

#3  ahhhhh that good ol' Cuban Middile Class™. The ones with '59 chevys
Posted by: Frank G   2005-03-31 4:37:53 PM  

#2  All successful revolutions are built by the middle classes. The rich can usually buy what they want, and the poor are too uneducated, unskilled and busy to do it.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2005-03-31 4:23:08 PM  

#1  ...50 BMG...
Posted by: dorf   2005-03-31 8:12:02 AM  

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