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Home Front: Tech
Predator's Big Brother is a Killer
2005-04-18
April 18, 2005: The U.S. Air Force has purchased 114 Predator A UAVs so far, with the CIA getting another dozen. So far, 37 percent of those Predators have been lost in action, mostly to accidents. Having a pilot on board does much to reduce accidents, although the air force is improving UAV operator training, and the flight control software, and the accident rate is going down. Each Predator A lost costs $4.5 million. The air force has ordered another 144 Predators, and some of these will be the larger Predator B. This version can stay in the air for about 24 hours (compared to 40 hours for the A model), and, most importantly, carries 1.7 tons of munitions. This can include Hellfire missiles, and 250 or 500 pound smart bombs. Typically, the Predator B will go into action carrying 16 Hellfire missiles. The Predator B is meant to be a "hunter-killer" UAV. It will go into action looking for targets it can immediately attack.
The Predator B prototypes have been flying since 2001, and have performed well. But the air force does not want to rush it into service, and will continue testing for another 12-18 months. Each Predator B costs $7 million. The army particularly likes the Predators because they have "persistence" (the ability to stay over a battlefield for hours on end.) The air force is reluctant to keep shifts of manned aircraft over a battlefield for that long, if only because it's so expensive (about $4,000 an hour, on average, for most fighter bombers, about ten times the hourly cost of flying a Predator.) There are also not enough manned warplanes to provide that kind of persistence. The air force is also developing new flight control software for Predator, that will allow one pilot to control four Predators, while each of those four UAVs will have one sensor operator. Current software requires one pilot and two sensor operators per Predator in flight. The Predator spend the vast majority of their time just watching the ground below.
In response to troop demand for UAVs, the army has sent hundreds of smaller UAVs to Iraq and Afghanistan, for reconnaissance, and is rushing a GPS guided 155mm artillery shell (Excalibur) into service by next Spring, to take advantage of targets spotted by all these UAVs.. The army doesn't want to be dependent on the air force for persistence, while the air force is not looking forward to replacing its manned fighter-bombers with armed UAVs. However, that's where the air force is going. The Predator B will have the same weapons load of an F-16, although it will fly much slower (max, about 400 kilometers an hour.) But for ground attack, slower speed is an asset. The Predator B will be more reliable (have a lower accident rate) and possess better sensors than the Predator A.
Posted by:Steve

#21  But, *sniff*, that provides the drama!
Posted by: .com   2005-04-18 9:02:24 PM  

#20  without dilithium crystals - they're always running out at the wrong goddamn time
Posted by: Captain Kirk   2005-04-18 8:59:17 PM  

#19  In addition to being much smaller, the full ships power system will can be used to drive the screws or power weapons in any ratio. I think the targeted power level was around 75MW, so it will have enough power to fire a dart at full power every few seconds.

That's all we need. US destroyers with power systems straight out of Star Fleet Battles.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2005-04-18 8:53:23 PM  

#18  The DDX (if built) will have an integrated electric drive using the first such application of large high temp superconducting generators. In addition to being much smaller, the full ships power system will can be used to drive the screws or power weapons in any ratio. I think the targeted power level was around 75MW, so it will have enough power to fire a dart at full power every few seconds.
Posted by: ed   2005-04-18 5:48:11 PM  

#17  Nope, not British :( - the DDX destroyers are USN vessels (that AFAIK) don't exist yet...but lawks a lordy, when they do, some people are gonna regret it!
Posted by: Tony (UK)   2005-04-18 5:36:54 PM  

#16  I hope the railgun works, but discussions about highspeed kinetic weapons I have seen seem to conclude a dumb projectile could never be stable at these speeds. In principle this could be overcome with smart projectiles but given the need for extremely fast reaction by the projectile, I can see its a tricky problem.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-04-18 5:33:55 PM  

#15  LOL!

Recess is over! The big boys are back! You will be cut cold and be known as the wogs that you are. You'll beg for the Americans.

/please.
Posted by: Shipman   2005-04-18 5:19:33 PM  

#14  Now's the time to keep an eye on the British dockyards, they tend to surprise in situations like this.
Posted by: Shipman   2005-04-18 5:17:41 PM  

#13  All good stuff, but check this out from The Belmont Club The return of the Dreadnought


A first-order analysis comparing the 200-mile volume of fires capability of a single hypersonic naval rail gun to the ordnance delivery capacity of a carrier air wing of F/A-18s is instructive. In the first eight hours of conflict, a single naval rail gun could deliver twice the payload, three times the energy, to ten times as many fixed aim points as carrier aviation.


...and these ships would hold about 10,000 'darts' - making their point with kinetic energy alone (E=0.5mv^2), where v would be Mach 7-16.


To put things in perspective, our current 5-inch gun has a muzzle energy of 10 megajoules. ... In contrast, naval rail guns will achieve muzzle energies from 60 to 300 megajoules. ... Research indicates that a notional first-generation naval rail gun could deliver a guided projectile with an impact velocity of Mach 5 to targets at ranges of 250 miles at a rate of greater than six rounds per minute.

... An important advantage of rail guns is the ability to exploit the high kinetic energy stored in the projectile ... One test demonstrated that the release of the rail gun projectile's kinetic energy alone would create a 10-foot crater, 10 feet deep in solid ground, and achieve projectile penetration to 40 feet.


A 'guided' projectile? - awesome!

These rail guns are expected to be installed onto the new DDX destroyers.
Posted by: Tony (UK)   2005-04-18 5:02:36 PM  

#12  Man-o-man! 16 hellfires per? I hope the Israelis have taken delivery on a few too!
Posted by: Brett   2005-04-18 4:43:10 PM  

#11  I think they upgraded ARCLIGHT to MOAB's. Anyone in the vicinity of 5-6 of those going off is going to be needing a new pair of pants.
Posted by: Silentbrick   2005-04-18 4:35:15 PM  

#10  While all this very sophisticated weaponry is great at selective killing, nothing yet beats the sheer terror of an ARCLIGHT strike. Sometimes, it's not killing that changes hearts and minds but the sheer terror of 75 TONS of high explosives going off in the neighborhood.

Every weapon has a purpose. You don't give up a weapon unless it no longers serves a purpose. ARCLIGHT is still the best instigator of pure terror the US military can employ.
Posted by: Old Patriot   2005-04-18 2:40:47 PM  

#9  "Achmed! There is a roach on you..here..let me take it off." Muted Rustling. "Hmm, odd, this roach, it looks strange..and it feels sort of..heavy. What k-" *KABOOM!*

And as Achmed and his matyred brother are discovered by their curious Jihadi friends, they too will meet the fury of.....EXPLODA-ROACH!
Coming to an insurgency near you!
Posted by: Silentbrick   2005-04-18 2:29:47 PM  

#8  How about a pilotless A-10? How much of the good works an A-10 does is due to the 30mm versus the other munitions?
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-04-18 1:32:54 PM  

#7  How about a smaller version of the Hellfire with an even smaller kill radius, e.g. a man standing on a street with crowds nearby or in a regular car in traffic. It could be equivalent to carying a .50 rifle on board. Load out could increase to a 100 or more of them.
Posted by: DO   2005-04-18 1:28:00 PM  

#6  I saw someone earlier today spouting a new meme to explain the lack of bodies in Iraq. You see, the new smart bombs are SOOOOO much more powerful than the old stuff that anyone killed by them is reduced to meaningless scraps... This lets them tout the 100,000-dead fiction and explain the lack of bodies!

Never mind that precision weapons tend to have smaller warheads than non-precision weapons. If you can hit something precisely, you don't need nearly as big a bang; big bangs are mainly useful if you can only get CLOSE to the target. That's why we were using slugs of concrete as anti-tank weapons -- we can nearly guarantee a hit, so no explosives were needed.

I find it amazing that the left insists on creative explanations for the lack of American victims, while studiously ignoring the mass graves filled with Saddam's victims.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2005-04-18 12:31:37 PM  

#5  Awesome. Imagine how incredibly phreaky it would be to be in the bad guys' shoes. No thanks! Allan can go fuck himself, lol!
Posted by: .com   2005-04-18 12:25:11 PM  

#4  Yes and this stuff is just the tip of the iceberg. The bad guys are going the have remotes coming at them from the air, land and sea. Each of those will be able to project force with exquisite accuracy. It will really piss of the MSM when the collatoral damage figures continue to go down.
Posted by: Remoteman   2005-04-18 12:19:20 PM  

#3  Kidding aside, this is the beginning, isn't it... including the GPS arty, this is truly the advent of the next era of warfare - remote oversight and recon + remote control + accuracy. The VC used to phreak about Arclight raids, but that was wasting immeasurable ordinance to take out a small infestation. This. This is something completely different. This is The Hand of God stuff. Reach out and touch someone (nasty, preferably)...
Posted by: .com   2005-04-18 12:10:35 PM  

#2  Oops! $4.5M. Oops! $7M.

Pretty soon, this will add up to the cost of maintaining the Boston City Council!
Posted by: .com   2005-04-18 11:54:50 AM  

#1  Predator A's - from San Diego with love
Posted by: Frank G   2005-04-18 11:51:59 AM  

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