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| Afghanistan/South Asia |
| When terrorism numbers don't add up |
| 2005-05-04 |
| Under Title 22 of the US Code, Section 2656f, the US State Department is required to submit to Congress when it re-assembles after the Easter recess every year a report on the state of international terrorism during the previous year, with recommendations regarding the role of state sponsors of international terrorism. The report, as laid down by Congress, has to include, inter alia, information on terrorist groups and umbrella organizations under which falls any terrorist group known to be responsible for the kidnapping or death of any US citizen during the preceding five years; groups known to be financed by state sponsors of terrorism about which Congress has been notified during the past year in accordance with Section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act; and any other known international terrorist group that the secretary of state determines should be the subject of the report. These annual reports, submitted since 1980, came to be known as the "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report and have enjoyed a certain credibility in the eyes of international counterterrorism analysts, who look forward to the publication of these annual statistics. However, some analysts, such as this writer, have been skeptical about the accuracy of the statistics provided in the reports, which are prepared not by the intelligence community, but by the Counterterrorism Division of the State Department. This writer and others who share this skepticism have felt the State Department is not beyond fudging the statistics and manipulating the analyses in order to serve the policy interests of the current administration. |
| Posted by:john |
| #16 These annual reports, submitted since 1980, came to be known as the ''Patterns of Global Terrorism''. So what? That's one of the most stupid thing I've read in a long time. What has been done with these reports before 9/11? And why should US Congress spend time and money to tell the world that terrorism is a fact? Let the UN do useless satistics, that's all they can do anyway and let the US do what they do best: Action. /end rant. |
| Posted by: SwissTex 2005-05-04 22:48 |
| #15 Raman's views pretty much coincide with mine and I suspect most people who bother to think about the issue. The Evil Mastermind view of terrorism is largely an invention of the media seeking to explain why terrorism occurs. They (the media and tranzi-lefties) can't or won't admit that the societies and elements in society that produce terrorists are deeply flawed and must be changed in order to stop terrorism, and if that needs to be at gunpoint then so be it. The neocons see this clearly. They are under no illusion that killing OBL and Zarqawi will stop terrorism. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-05-04 20:39 |
| #14 In keeping with the general helpfulness of the State Department, the PDF is encoded so that the normal copy / paste operations are not allowed and data must be extracted from the report by hand. Armed Liberal at Winds of Change and a helpful reader there have done so. I'd love to quote the methodology statement here, but I don't feel like transcribing it and cannot copy / paste. Suffice it to say that the report clearly states that changes in methodology make it no longer comparable with prior year reports. In addition, the report was constructed around legal definitions of terrorism and some examples of exclusions are listed. It appears that nearly all of the terrorist incidents in 2004 were confined to three countries, India with 45.9% of the incidents, Iraq with 30.8%, and Palestine with 6.1%. Those three countries total 82.8% of the total incidents. No other nation accounts for even 3% of the total. The vast majority of terror incidents happened in places where there has been fighting for a generation or more. And, as Armed Liberal and other have pointed out, many of these terror movements are losing badly or are defeated and conducting dead-ender operations. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-05-04 20:12 |
| #13 The relationship between the ISI, Pakistan military leadership, and terrorist activity planned by Osama bin Laden while residing in Sudan was known to Canadian intelligence long before it was suspected in the USA. The Canadians were on to retired General Mirza Aslam Beg and Lt. General Hamid Gul, former director of ISI, both of whom were present at the Second Peoples Arab and Islamic Conference -- the second meeting of the so-called ''Terrorist International'' held in Khartoum on 2-4 December 1993. The Canadian Broadcasting Company for some unexplained reason was allowed to film (or obtained film on) some of the conference activity. The film has never been released, and it is said that Canadian intelligence studied the tape (and apparently the report of an informant) and learned much about the growth of the Islamist movement. Unfortunately, the Canadians hold their cards much closer to the chest than Americans do. Canucks rarely comment on hard intelligence dearly gathered. |
| Posted by: Tancred 2005-05-04 20:11 |
| #12 Links are good. Links to long articles are particularly good. Copying and pasting the whole thing here, not so good. |
| Posted by: rkb 2005-05-04 19:59 |
| #11 I posted the articles by B. Raman because they represent a point of view not often seen in mainstream media. This guy has had access to classified intel from a number of foreign governments for a long time and does know a little about terrorism. Take his views into account the next time a #3 Al Qaeda is captured. There is an infinite supply of ''#3 Al Qaeda masterminds'' and their capture does not bring UBL any closer to justice. |
| Posted by: john 2005-05-04 19:58 |
| #10 john - ever hear of ''EFL''? Know what it means? I hope you're going to send Fred some cash for his bandwidth. (BTW, when somebody posts something that long, I don't even bother reading it. Life's too short. Your mileage may vary.) |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2005-05-04 19:51 |
| #9 John, your comments go way beyond ''comment'' and verge on ''blog entry''. I'm moving them to Opinion. |
| Posted by: rkb 2005-05-04 19:50 |
| #8 Post it John! |
| Posted by: Flagg 2005-05-04 19:39 |
| #7 9/11: Did Musharraf know? moved to opinion page |
| Posted by: john 2005-05-04 19:28 |
| #6 The Guilty Men of 9/11 Moved to Opinion page |
| Posted by: john 2005-05-04 19:27 |
| #5 He has also written about Beslan What really happened at Beslan? |
| Posted by: john 2005-05-04 19:24 |
| #4 Author is B. Raman, a former Indian Gov't official (Cabinet Secretary). Indian spy agencies reported to him. The United States Congress cares what he thinks. Transcript of his testimony to the Congress http://www.saag.org/papers9/paper827.html |
| Posted by: john 2005-05-04 19:19 |
| #3 Oh... and ''This Writer'' forgot Beslan. I reckon ''This Writer'' has a good handle on what it is the US is to blame for in allowing a terrorist act to occur in a nation that was positively beligerant toward our armed intervention in Iraq. |
| Posted by: eLarson 2005-05-04 19:18 |
| #2 This writer and others who share this skepticism have felt the State Department is not beyond fudging the statistics and manipulating the analyses in order to serve the policy interests of the current administration. Does ''this writer'' -- a good pompous way to interject yourself into the piece your writing -- forget who works at Foggy Bottom? Aside from an anonymous few who call themselves the State Department Republican Underground (SDRU), there are very few folks likely to try to help Bush's policy. No, if it were truly a help, it must be an accident, or a means of helping another entity. |
| Posted by: eLarson 2005-05-04 19:16 |
| #1 who gives a fuck what this guy thinks! |
| Posted by: legolas 2005-05-04 19:12 |