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Europe
French EU referendum polls put 'non' camp ahead at 54%
2005-05-16
With just over two weeks to go before the French cast their ballots in a referendum on the EU constitution, a poll gave 54 per cent to the 'no' camp on Saturday, while one a day earlier had 'yes' ahead at 52 per cent. In one survey carried out for the Wanadoo Internet provider, 54 per cent of those who had made up their minds said they would vote yes while 46 per cent said no. Twelve per cent were undecided in the survey of 858 people by telephone. On Friday a TNS-Sofres/Unilog poll for Le Monde newspaper, radio station RTL and TV news channel LCI indicated that 52 per cent of French voters intended to ratify the treaty and that 48 per cent were against it, but 29 per cent of those surveyed said they may still change their minds ahead of the May 28 vote. Two other polls carried out this week suggested the running was neck-and-neck with one offering a 50-50 result and the other giving 51 per cent to the yes camp. French polls do not publish a margin of error.
Posted by:Fred

#17  JFM, in the end the vote is in the tank, isn't it? At the last minute won't someone just yell, "hate Bush," and 90% of the French will approve the constitution?
Posted by: Super Hose   2005-05-16 21:09  

#16  Maybe Fred could put up a 'Non' and 'Oui' pool, so that we can place bets. Nearest guess wins. Quatloos only, want to keep it legal. I'll be the first to stick my neck out and say 'Non' by 54.5% for 10 Quatloos. Any takers?
Posted by: Anonymoose   2005-05-16 17:04  

#15  Captain Pedantic:

Technically Guyanne, Martinique and Guadeloupe are full French "departements" like any others and their citizens fully fledged French citizens (ie like Hawains and Alaskans but unlike Puerto Ricans) so they have the right to vote.

However, those territories are very dependant on subsidies from the French tax payer and have banana Republic-like levels of clientelism. Their massive voting in favor of the Maastricht treaty was decisive in its adoption.

Another vote who massively voted for Maastricht was Alsace. It is there where the EU parliament is located. Since two times a month the parliament travels between Brussels and Strasbourg at enormous cost for the tax payer and inconvenience for the euro-deputies, the plan was to move the Parliament to Brussels. But when the "No" looked like it could win the plan was shelved. Since the Parliament means jobs and money for the region, Alsacians voted for Maastricht at over 70%, and still more for the Bas-Rhin (ie the department whose capital is Strasbourg).

As you see, the pro-EU people have a very peculiar respect for democracy and cleanness of elections.

Posted by: JFM   2005-05-16 17:03  

#14  Mike

On the contrary I love him so much that I would have helped him with the poem, paid the sake from my own pocket and then given him the coup de grace to avoid him suffering. :-)
Posted by: JFM   2005-05-16 15:17  

#13  I seem to remember reading that last time they had a tight vote on a major EU issue, the government just stuffed the ballot boxes with phony votes from Tahiti, Moorea, French Guyana, and a bunch of other former colonial possessions whose citizens are apparently still allowed to vote in French elections. It wouldn't surprise me if Chirac did the same thing again.
Posted by: Captain Pedantic   2005-05-16 13:02  

#12  [Jospin] retired, sort of, from politics but had he had some sense of honor he would have written a poem, drunk a cup of sake and performed sepuku. I would gladly have helped him with the poem.

So . . . I take it you don't like this guy, eh?
Posted by: Mike   2005-05-16 12:33  

#11  From the three French papers who matter (there are more outside Paris, but they mostly report about who won the beauty contest in Trou Perdu and have about zero national or international politics coverage, at best they relay AFP) "Le Figaro" is the only one who has some europsceptical or american-friendly articles. Don't dream they are not the majority, but at least, unlike the other two "Le Figaro" is not monolithically pro-EU and anti-american. Jean François Revel (PBUH) :-) wrote in Le Figaro until recently.
Posted by: JFM   2005-05-16 11:52  

#10  Le Monde is the statist pro-EU newspaper in France; In short the Socialist Pro-EU wing. Le Figaro is the right newspaper pro-EU too, lightly pro-Chirac since the Franch right is only glued because Chirac is in power. Chirac/Sarkozy is the what devides the right.
Posted by: Hupomoque Spoluter7949   2005-05-16 11:24  

#9  I read Le Monde on-line now and then and if I could write as well as JFM I would have said exactly the same thing.
Posted by: SwissTex   2005-05-16 09:09  

#8  Btw, Fox News was shown on sat tv, by the two main broadcasters; I used to frequently watch it, found it very lively and interesting.
Alas, some time before OIF, first "Canalsat", the offspring of the *left-leaning* "Canal+", ceased its broadcasting, followed a bit later by its rival "Tps". Now, FN, which is demonized as the "evil neo-con/Bushitleretardedictator's channel, isn't available anymore... but, of course, "Al Jezzera", "Al arabya" and co are... I've written to FN, and they kindly responded, saying that presently no french distributor was interested in rebroadcasting it. Draw your own conclusions.
Posted by: Anonymous5089   2005-05-16 08:12  

#7  JFM

Can't wait for France to have a Le Renard TV station.
Posted by: mhw   2005-05-16 07:51  

#6  In 2000, the then prime Minister Lionel Jospin didn't hesitate to alienate its own electoral base, ruffle feathers in the socialist party, lose a crucial ally (the one who gave him credibility about fighting crime, an important concern of the electorate), and betray his own ideas in order to get "Le Monde"'s support for the presidential campaign.

End result was that trhe crucial ally ran against him and deprived Jospin of enough votes for Jospin coming behind Le Pen and thus not being in the second round of the Presidential election. He retired, sort of, from politics but had he had some sense of honor he would have written a poem, drunk a cup of sake and performed sepuku. I would gladly have helped him with the poem. :-)

Anyway that story is a proime example of the French state bowing to the wbhims of the French MSM. In many ways France's problem is the state not being independent of the press.
Posted by: JFM   2005-05-16 05:40  

#5  
Posted by: JFM   2005-05-16 05:29  

#4  Thanks, JFM, good post, wish you had a voice in the US media.
Posted by: anon and want to stay that way   2005-05-16 02:47  

#3  Nope. Le Monde is not Chirac's private mouthpiece. It has ever been critical of him. In fact most of its journalists hate him. In am mock vote before the 2002 French presidential elections 50 % of its journalists voted for one of the two trotskits candidates (ie more radical then the communists). However Le Monde's party line has ever been strongly pro-EU and Le Monde has consitently tried to manipulate the opinion toward pro-UE feelings (diabolization of the USA, torpedoing of any politician critical of the EU, distortion ofb the news when they reflected poorly of the EU).

Le Monde has enormous influence on the French media resulting in politicians molding their positions to please Le Monde. Americans, ever think in an independent press as non-state owned but in France what we lack is notr apress independent of the state but a state independent of the press: the lack of counterweights to Le Monde and its ilk has politicians trying to please Le Monde more than to please the elector.
Posted by: JFM   2005-05-16 02:24  

#2  Will there be UN observers?
Posted by: someone   2005-05-16 01:38  

#1  LeMonde is Le Chirac's private mouthpiece. Any poll they took is by definition crooked like Chirac.
Posted by: 3dc   2005-05-16 00:18  

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