| Submit your comments on this article |
| Iraq-Jordan |
| StrategyPage: The Sunni Arabs Have a Plan That May Work |
| 2005-06-15 |
| The Iraqi Sunni Arabs are driving a hard bargain. In effect, they are still running an extortion racket on the Kurds and Shia Arabs who comprise 80 percent of the population. The terrorist violence in Iraq is almost entirely the creation of Sunni Arabs. Their proposals is that, in return for stopping the violence, they want a major say in the writing of the new constitution, and some major amnesty for past sins. The Sunni Arabs have a lot to account for in the pain and atrocity department, both currently and in the past. In the past, the Sunni Arab extortion racket was simpler. As the Sunni Arabs controlled the police, army and everything else, it was easy to tell the Kurds and Shia Arabs to do something, or else. There was a lot of "or else," and Saddam Hussein's coming trial will contain abundant gory details. Since the Sunni Arabs were tossed out of power in April of 2003, they have been scheming to get it back. They have a plan, they believe it will work, and they may be right. The Iraqi Sunni Arabs are not alone, and their list of allies is large. Locally, all Middle Eastern nations run by Sunni Arabs, and that's nearly all of them, back the idea of Sunni Arabs running Iraq. It's easy for outsiders to underestimate how much of a threat Sunni Arabs feel that Shia Iran is. For the last quarter century, Iran has been run by radical Shia clerics. But the Iranian tradition that terrifies Sunni Arabs the most is the fact that for over three thousand years, Iran has dominated the region. Currently, Iran is developing nuclear weapons, the better to continue that tradition of domination. Shia Arabs are 60 percent of the Iraqi population. In a democracy, those Shia Arabs should be running the country. The Sunni Arab nightmare is that a Shia run Iraq would ally with Shia Iran to take over the Middle East. It's an Arabian nightmare that is based on thousands of years of reality. Sunni Arabs in the Middle East may not support Sunni Arab terrorism in Iraq, but they do support Sunni Arab control of Iraq. Iraqi Sunni Arabs also have the support of the majority of the world's media. The American overthrow of Sunni Arab control of Iraq was condemned by most of the world's media. This was largely the result of European "pragmatism", and willingness to tolerate Sunni Arab atrocities in return for lucrative business deals. Saddam's Republic of Fear was largely equipped with weapons and gear supplied by European nations (mainly Russia, France and Germany.) It had also become fashionable in Europe to condemn Israel for oppressing the Sunni Arab Palestinians. This made Europeans more popular in the Sunni Arab world. So it was something of a knee-jerk reaction for the European press to join with the Sunni Arab press to condemn the United States for removing Sunni Arabs from control of Iraq. This media coalition continues to portray Sunni Arab terrorism in Iraq as "insurgents" and "freedom fighters." Sunni Arab leaders are demanding a new constitution that will make it easier for Sunni Arabs to regain control of the government, and amnesty for Sunni Arabs involved in the last two years of terrorism, and the previous decades of government sponsored atrocities. The Sunni Arabs are willing to blame it all on al Qaeda, which is mainly radical Sunni Arabs that are considered expendable. The Kurds and Shia Arabs are gagging on this. But they have a stark choice. If they don't give in, they may only be able to stop the Sunni Arab terrorism by, in effect, making war on the Sunni Arab population. This would get pretty ugly. Look at Lebanon, the poster child for Arab civil wars. That one lasted for fifteen years (1975-90) and killed over five percent of the population. Of course, that's what Saddam did to Iraq in three decades of misrule. But a major effort to suppress current Sunni Arab violence in Iraq could leave over 100,000 Sunni Arabs dead, and several million in exile. This is a nightmare for the United States, whose troops would be a witness to this, and accused of not doing anything to stop it. It's a game of chicken, but the Sunni Arabs are confident that the other guys will blink first. They may be right. |
| Posted by:ed |
| #10 Whats needed is to topple the moneybags behind the SUnni: the Wahhabists in Saudi. The Shia along the coastal are awhere the oil is could be encouraged to break away, armed and the protected by the US. THe Suadis without the oil money are nothing but a bunch of dirt poor, stinkin Bedu who dont matter crap in the world picture. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2005-06-15 23:21 |
| #9 But a major effort to suppress current Sunni Arab violence in Iraq could leave over 100,000 Sunni Arabs dead, and several million in exile. Pardon me if I seem hard-pressed to work up a little sympathy... |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-06-15 23:01 |
| #8 Yep - and the ones that ignored the previous batch of boat people will turn out in droves to support 'em. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2005-06-15 22:47 |
| #7 But a major effort to suppress current Sunni Arab violence in Iraq could leave over 100,000 Sunni Arabs dead, and several million in exile. I can see it already. Boatloads of them turning up, stating that their human rights to cause mayhem and terror sre being denied them and claiming protection of the Refugee Convention and welfare. |
| Posted by: tipper 2005-06-15 22:20 |
| #6 The two real factors at work here are both discreet: the invisible hand of US diplomacy (remember Condi Rice?); and the almost ritualized haggling of the casbah. Unless you are familiar with the Middle East haggle, then much of what is transpiring is missed. However, the hand of Uncle Sam is far more omnipotent. It seeks power and balance, transparency and honesty, and the evolution of the utter dominance of democratic institutions. First the haggle will iron out some kind of agreement satisfactory to the parties, then adjustments will be made to further level the playing field. There are hundreds of tools that can be used to strengthen one side or diminish the other, subtly. All the players within and outside of Iraq will be taken into account, and years of timetables will be developed to chart all sorts of baselines for national development. Even with the departure of most of the US forces, the game continues, far beyond when stability and strength have reached their maximum. Prosperity should bring with it the end of old institutions, and the transcendance of old animosities. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-06-15 21:41 |
| #5 Iraq needs to make sure the Second Amendment is its first. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-06-15 20:44 |
| #4 It's a plan that'll work as long as America's army is free to babysit Iraq and we don't get involved in any wars with anyone else in the Middle East, or aren't attacked elsewhere or at home. |
| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2005-06-15 20:06 |
| #3 I could come up with a completely different analysis, that has the Sunni 'insurgency' simmering for years and the Kurds and Shiias using this as an opportunity to progessively rollback Sunni control of large areas of Iraq. Already largely unoticed by the MSM the Kurds have defaco control of a large area south of their 3 provinces stretching from the Iranian border to the Syrian border. As the Shiias get organized I expect them to do the same from the south. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-06-15 18:49 |
| #2 This is one of the better bits of analysis that I've ever seen. All along, the real question in Iraq has been, 'Do the Shia really want to be their own people? Or are they willing to be mastered again by the Sunni?' I strongly suspect that a major contributing factor to many of the current problems in Iraq has been the painfully slow process of the Shia 'getting their act together'. However, I think the evidence is now in -- the Shia want to be free. At best, the Sunni strategy of 'driving a hard bargain' with suicide bombers might actually work for a while. So the Sunni could establish a special status for themselves in Iraq in which the worst of them don't have to pay for previous (and current) crimes. But that's probably just a temporary fix. Ultimately, the Sunni are riding the tiger. Their strategy is heavily dependent upon the forebearance of the Kurds and the Shia, and that forebearance is probably very tenous. |
| Posted by: Patrick Phillips 2005-06-15 18:19 |
| #1 If that happens ... would federalism look like a good idea (with an emphasis on bypassing a Sunni-ruled government to help the Shias and Kurds more directly) or should we just start advocating Kurdistan? |
| Posted by: Edward Yee 2005-06-15 18:09 |