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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Kasparov-Kremlin Face-Off |
| 2005-06-22 |
| Retired world chess champion Garry Kasparov claims Russia's political opposition will not unite to challenge the Kremlin during the next round of parliamentary and presidential elections. If Kasparov is correct, any meaningful liberal opposition to the Kremlin may completely disappear from Russia's political landscape. In an interview with the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Kasparov - head of the newly established "United Civil Front" - contends it is not politics and personalities that keep political opposition from uniting, but rather those liberals willing to cooperate with the current ruling elite. Kasparov also said that that the political spectrum of left and right is not in play in Russian politics. Rather, the most important dividing line is those willing to confront and oppose what he calls Vladimir Putin's authoritarian regime. "Our Front believes that a coalition can be formed only if we refuse to hold any talks with the regime," Kasparov said. He added, "This is why we believe that we will unite many more people on the right and left wings." Russia's two major liberal opposition parties, Union of Right Forces and Yabloko, are divided on the issue of cooperating with the Kremlin as a loyal opposition. Both parties failed to garner enough votes in the 2003 parliamentary elections to win seats in the current legislature. With the vote threshold to be increased to win a seat in the 2007 parliamentary, small political parties will again face defeat. Russia's liberals are aware of the political math that confronts them. "The Committee 2008," formed shortly after Russia's liberals suffered a devastating defeat in 2003, brought together virtually all of Russia's liberals. However, the committee appears to only find agreement on the issue of continuing a liberal agenda. How to attract voters, confront the Kremlin, and win elections are issues the liberals fail to find common ground. It is quite possible Kasparov is not interested in finding common ground with other liberals. In the interview Kasparov may have already accepted that liberals cannot win power through the ballot box, suggesting only social pressure will change Russia's political order. The power of social pressure has already been demonstrated this year. When some Soviet era social benefits were indexed into cash payments, tens of thousands protesters took to the streets across Russia. The government later admitted that these reforms were poorly implemented and quickly increased cash payments. Kasparov believes this may happen again. Committed to reforming Soviet era social benefits, including reform of the housing and utility services, the Kremlin has made it clear it will not be deterred and will proceed with both later this year. The potential of more protests against reforms and the possibility, as Kasparov put it, of constitutional changes to entrench the current regime "the constitutional political process may cross over into the social process." Kasparov added, "Putin's regime must be dismantled, and this is the aim of the United Civil Front." Kasparov's political calculus is a major departure from Russia's other liberals - and potentially dangerous. He not only is drawing very sharp lines separating him from Russia's other liberals, but also showing little faith in the democratic process. Add to this, his apparent hope for an uprising against the Kremlin akin to a "velvet revolution." Kasparov may be correct the Kremlin's social reforms may again bring people into the streets. However, it not entirely clear social protests will demand "regime change." If the street protests earlier this year is any guide to what can happen, the Kremlin will again cave in and shell out more compensation. Major protests during Putin's presidency have largely been confined to economic issues, with political demands rarely voiced. Kasparov may be over-estimating the appeal of liberalism if social protests do indeed occur. Russia's radical nationalists may benefit far more than any of Russia's liberals. Political activism is on the rise in Russia and it decidedly to the right. While claiming to support a liberal agenda - even through radical means, Kasparov is indirectly helping the Kremlin maintain the status quo. There are many "statist liberals" within the Kremlin and the Kremlin's parliamentary vehicle United Russia. It is liberal economic reforms that are controversial -- many people want less liberalism, not more it. Kasparov appears to want to abandon his fellow liberals with the hope the average Russian will soon rise up against Putin - a president whose public ratings are the envy of Western leaders. Kasparov apparently believes there is a popular demand for a liberal agenda. Indeed, there are political and social frustrations among many Russians, but liberalism's reputation among Russians remains tainted after the radical liberal reforms of the 1990s. Kasparov's fighting words are very popular among Western audiences. In Russia, many interpret his words as coming from the lunatic fringe. This apparently suits the Kremlin just fine. Kasparov indirectly promotes the Kremlin's form of statist-liberalism. As for the rest of Russia liberals, not only do they continue to deal with the problematic legacy of liberalism during the first decade of post-communist rule, now they have to deal with a politician who divides them more than the Kremlin ever could. |
| Posted by:Spavirt Pheng6042 |
| #2 Methinks he will soon come to regret trading chess for modern Russian politics. These are two very different games with one being a full contact blood sport. |
| Posted by: Tkat 2005-06-22 13:14 |
| #1 "Kasparov also said that that the political spectrum of left and right is not in play in Russian politics. Rather, the most important dividing line is those willing to confront and oppose what he calls Vladimir Putin's authoritarian regime" Careful, careful - a lot of folks have disappeared for noticing things like this... |
| Posted by: Rawsnacks 2005-06-22 09:47 |