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Europe
Schröder begins painful end to his chancellorship
2005-07-02
The Schröder era was drawing to a tortuous close yesterday after Germany's chancellor orchestrated his own defeat in parliament, setting the stage for early elections he has little hope of winning.

The historic vote of no-confidence marked the beginning of the end for the so-called Red-Green coalition, which has ruled the country for the last seven years. It opened the way for the rise to power of Angela Merkel, the leader of the conservative opposition, to become Germany's first female chancellor if, as expected, she triumphs at the polls in September.

In a reflection of the perversity of much of German politics, Gerhard Schröder was reduced to engineering his own drubbing, instructing his Social Democrats to abstain in the vote in the Bundestag. In a half-hour long speech before the vote, which often sounded like a swansong, Mr Schröder argued that he needed a new mandate in order to pursue his economic reforms. "If we are to continue with this agenda, legitimisation through new elections is needed," a lacklustre Mr Schröder, dressed in a black suit and watched from the public gallery by his wife, Doris, told parliament. "We need clarity."

Mrs Merkel, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, responded in fiery mood, saying Mr Schröder's move would "save Germany from months of inaction". She accused his government of "undoing everything that the Christian Democrats set in motion" under the 16-year reign of Helmut Kohl, of "plundering" the country, and of failing to communicate the need for reform to the electorate. "You have never managed to explain to the citizens the necessity of these reforms and that is what finally led to your government's defeat," she said.

In what was effectively an opening gambit in a campaign that will be brief but intense, Mrs Merkel quoted back at Mr Schröder his remark that his government would resign if it failed to reduce unemployment. In fact, it has risen considerably during his time in office. Germany is in the grip of economic lethargy and a collapse in national morale without parallel in decades.

Mr Schroder's reforms, known as Agenda 2010, have yet to bring a turnaround, leading to apathy and frustration among the voters. The chancellor has argued that holding elections a year ahead of schedule will help to end the deadlock.

But losing yesterday's confidence vote is only the first of several steps necessary before an election is certain to go ahead and a date can be set. Mr Schröder must now ask President Horst Köhler to accept yesterday's result and dissolve parliament, a decision that must be reached within the next 21 days and which could lead to an election, most probably on Sept 18. Mr Köhler must decide whether Mr Schröder's self-inflicted downfall is constitutionally legitimate.

His position is, however, unenviable. If he vetoes early elections, Germany will be plunged into even worse turmoil, with a government that no longer wants to be in power, a parliament its members want to dissolve and an electorate fed up with chronically inactive politicians.

Yesterday, German newspapers were already writing their obituaries of Mr Schröder's career. But commentators also cast doubt for the first time on Mrs Merkel's ability to win Germans over in the campaign. Her popularity rating has dropped by 10 points to 36 per cent since last month, while Mr Schroder's has increased by two points to 40 per cent. The foreign minister and deputy chancellor, Joschka Fischer, of the Greens, likened Mrs Merkel yesterday to "a well-baked soufflé in the oven". Her attraction to the voters "won't last", he said.
A petty man, right to the very end.
Posted by:.com

#15  "It's way too confusing."

I shoulda started my 4th drinking earlier. Apparently I can't type when I'm sober. :-(
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2005-07-02 22:29  

#14  To join in the invites, how about the Southwest. I was good enough for Werner von Braun. And we get German air units training out here yearly.

To get back to the legal issues, let's say the President turns a blind eye to the shenanigans and certifies the vote, thus setting the election for September. That means the Constitutional Court has 2 months to reverse him. Can they do it in that amount of time?

And if they do reverse him, can he then be impeached for not following his oath of office?
Posted by: Jackal   2005-07-02 21:09  

#13  TGA, join us in Cincinnati. It was settled by Bavarians after the 1848 debacle, and has the 2nd biggest Oktoberfest in the world... and the first branch of the Hofbrauhaus opened last year just across the river.
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-07-02 20:08  

#12  Geez, TGA - and people make fun of our elections. At least they're pretty straightforward, even to the Democrats voting the cemetaries.

I don't really understand the parliamentary system, but I sure don't like it. It's way to confusing. :-(
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2005-07-02 19:24  

#11  Frivolous in that sense:

The chancelor asks his party to abstain in the nonconfidence vote, claiming he cannot count on the leftists in his coalition.

30 minutes later the party boss challenges the opposition by saying: "We are all behind Schroeder".

One hour later half of the party abstains.

It can't get anymore frivolous than that. And only one member of Parliament, a Green (but he came from the DDR-opposition of the late 80s) called it the sham it was.

The President now has a problem. If he okays the deal and dissolves the Bundestag, the Constitutional Court could overrule him by saying that the dissolution of Parliament was unconstitutional because the non confidence vote was staged (everyone knows that it was but you don't want to be too obvious about it.)

That's not very funny for a President whose supreme task it is to "protect and uphoild the Constitution). So he might simply refuse the dissolution although 80% of Germans favor it and the President himself knows that it is in the best interest of the country.

Rock, meet hard place.
Posted by: True German Ally   2005-07-02 16:50  

#10  What is a "frivolous" non-confidence vote? Seriously, will the court subpoena the various member who skipped the session to determine if they would have made the difference? I mean, it's obvious that the whole thing was rigged, but "obvious" doesn't apply when you are in front of a judge. At least in the US, it doesn't. Just ask OJ.

If the President accepts the vote, but part of the SPD takes it to the court, will they rule in time? Will the High Court postpone the elections so they have time to argue the case? Or will the elections go ahead and then the court say it doesn't count? (If the latter, they'd have a great future in Florida or Washington.)

This could make Bush vs. Gore look like a traffic court case.

Maybe the EU will simply take the country under its direct control. You need higher tax rates and more strenuous regulations, right?
Posted by: Jackal   2005-07-02 15:56  

#9  Shipman, hard to say.
When the SPD lost the biggest German land Schroeder announced anticipated elections. I guess the idea was to keep the leftists quiet who were about to rebel and finish Schröder off AND try to catch the opposition unaware, make them blunder and grab another victory.
This plan clearly failed. The opposition quickly elected Merkel and the SPD now faces a new far left party made up of ex East German SED members and disgruntled far left ex SPD members, including former SPD party boss Lafontaine. They formed a far left union that, due to its popularist undertones, may attract the far right as well.
So it's possible that Schroeder still wants the elections to go down with flying colors (he seems to have enough) while parts of the SPD (including party boss Muentefering) have changed their minds about the early elections. Muentefering made the non confidence vote look like the sham it was. He knows that several members of Parliament are going to challenge the early elections at Germany's High Court.
Their success is not too unlikely given the poor show talent of the SPD. The Constitution does not allow for frivolous non confience votes in order to dissolve Parliament.
Muenteferings plan may be that Schroeder will resign if the High Court vetoes early elections, take Schroeder's job, promise a lot of things to please the electorate and hope that Merkel crumbles.
In a year a lot of things can happen. If we do have elections in September Merkel will win.
Posted by: True German Ally   2005-07-02 15:37  

#8  TGA, let me get this straight, it was by setting his government up for a loss in the no confidence vote that allows for the "year of agony" or praying/playing for time....?
Posted by: Shipman   2005-07-02 14:56  

#7  I don't have much hope Merkel can win. I see the same old same old red/green cabal back in power and Germany headding down the tubes blaming everyone else for her plight. That after is the German way things go bad blame someone else. Last time is was the Jews, undermenschen and "back stabbers." This time it (is) will be the USA.

All I can do is hope the German people wake up.
Posted by: Sock Puppet 0’ Doom   2005-07-02 14:05  

#6  Well, you'll have some interesting ex-pat communities to choose from, if you'd like to hang with German-Americans. The Germantowns in Pennsylvania and Texas are like, I have heard, visiting your grandparents. Signs in old script and very formal language. However, Germans who've arrived since 1900 tended to integrate quickly.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2005-07-02 13:52  

#5  He won't win.
But if he does I'm moving to the US
Posted by: True German Ally   2005-07-02 13:31  

#4  I predict that Germans, like Swedes, won't be able to break their addiction to socialism. Schöder may very well win, once he is free to run a vicious campaign based on anti-capitalism and anti-Americanism.
Posted by: Kalle (kafir forever)   2005-07-02 12:59  

#3  No due credit.
A politician who realizes that he has failed hands in his resignation and does not make a sham of the Constitution.
What Schroeder did could very well lead the president to refuse new elections and we'd be facoing a year of agony.
Posted by: True German Ally   2005-07-02 12:12  

#2  I'm no fan of Schroeder, but due credit. A fork in the road has been reached and he has engineered an early election for the voters to decide. Germany's great error in the 20th century was not to ally with the Brits. Perhaps they will rectify that error in the 21st century.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-07-02 09:29  

#1  Wow - I've gotten rusty. Could this be moved to Page 3 and some of the (Where the hell did they come from?) excess blank lines removed? Sheesh. Things don't work the same anymore with embedded tables and such. My apologies.
Posted by: .com   2005-07-02 08:18  

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