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| Census Bureau-GOP as population shifts south (or rats leaving a sinking ship) |
| 2005-07-12 |
| EFL Hat tip Rightwingnews.com "The Census Bureau's latest projection of population shifts, the first in eight years, shows a dramatic movement from the North to Southern and Western states over the next 30 years. The study points to a political movement as well. Heavily Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Michigan will go on losing congressional seats and thus electoral strength in presidential elections, political analysts say. At the same time, they say, Republican states such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada likely will gain congressional and electoral clout. "The net beneficiary of this will continue to be the Republican Party because the population shift is moving into an environment that is heavily dominated by the Republicans," says Merle Black, a professor of politics and government at Emory University and author of books on political shifts in the South. "In the 2002 and 2004 exit polls, we saw for the first time a majority of Southern white voters identifying themselves as Republicans and Democratic identification falling to a low 20 [percent] to 25 percent," Mr. Black says. This doesn't mean that Democrats cannot win, but population shifts give the GOP "a long-term structural advantage," he says, "and assuming they nominate credible candidates, they start with a strong base." He adds: "The Republicans will continue to be the dominant party in the South for the foreseeable future." Census Bureau projections show significant population shifts over the next three decades. The share of Americans living in the Northeast and Midwest will fall from 42 percent to 35 percent of the population, while the South and West will rise from 58 percent to 65 percent. Among the 10 most populated states, Democrat-leaning Michigan and New Jersey will be supplanted by heavily Republican and fast-growing Arizona and North Carolina." |
| Posted by:mmurray821 |
| #15 Contrary to what they've been told we here in the South (mostly) don't dislike people just because they are Northerners damn straight, we can hate for a hole lot of other reasons, like stealing the damn steps offten my trailer home |
| Posted by: half 2005-07-12 18:59 |
| #14 Atlas Tanned, anyone? |
| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2005-07-12 18:10 |
| #13 Migration is a self selecting phenomena. People move from were they are dissatisfied to where they will be more satisfied. So expect a leftward shift in the states being left behind. |
| Posted by: ed 2005-07-12 18:07 |
#12 Sgt. Mom wrote:
Pappy wrote:
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| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2005-07-12 17:57 |
| #11 mmurray821 told The southerners I met were some of the nicest people and willing to help you no matter what. (although I hated the bugs...) Bugs are as intolerable when perpetrated by northerner programmers. ;-) |
| Posted by: JFM 2005-07-12 17:28 |
| #10 Really... the biggest complaint I have about living in Texas is they cannot build a road system to save their lives... jeeze, people, you can cove the damn road so it sheds water... and in other places, they have designed freeway interchanges that did not involve a 45-degree dogleg turn, and a steep uphill climb that dumped you out in the fast lane! I can afford a house in a good neighborhood, y'see. Makes up for a lot. And the city government is as amusing as hell, too. |
| Posted by: Sgt. Mom 2005-07-12 17:28 |
| #9 Deacon, I would agree. The southerners I met were some of the nicest people and willing to help you no matter what. (although I hated the bugs...) People seem to blend in, for the most part, on where they live. |
| Posted by: mmurray821 2005-07-12 15:21 |
| #8 It doesn't seem to be the case as much now but not too many years ago when I would talk to a Northeasterner or Midwesterner that had "emmigrated" to the South their biggest complaint was "That's not how we do things back home". My reply would always be, "Well, then go back home because that's how we do things HERE". I think over time our regional areas have melded somewhat. I have talked to a LOT of people in the last 3 years who have retired here from Northern climes and NONE of them would go back. It's not just the cold up there, but the whole non-moonbat experience of living here. Contrary to what they've been told we here in the South (mostly) don't dislike people just because they are Northerners. They seem to really like the slower pace of living and the fact that, mostly, the local governments stay out of their business. I'm not saying we don't have our share of moonbats but it seems to be a different type of moonbat, one not totally off the deep end. The more Libertarian aspect of life here seems to appeal to them and some have even changed from Democrat to Republican. Some haven't changed from Democrats but did vote Republican in tha last Presidential election. I believe this accounts for why some countys here and in Florida had more votes for President Bush than there were Republicans and Independants. Moonbat Democrats look at this apparent disparity and see evidence of voter fraud. They don't want to face the fact their party no longer appeals to a large segment of it's membership. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2005-07-12 14:43 |
| #7 Of course they can. But a lot of them will content with the paper from the local news stand (who in addition is more centered in things of practical interest for Nevadans), they will have more contacts with republicans, their children will not be brainwashed by total moonbats and so on, perhaps also they will like another style of life (remember, if those people had been so happy about Masschusets they would have remained in it). The longer they stay the more right wing they will turn. |
| Posted by: JFM 2005-07-12 14:37 |
| #6 At the same time, they say, Republican states such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada likely will gain congressional and electoral clout. So Florida is a Republican state now? I thought they were one of the all-important swing states. Class, are there any other factors not included in this Census Bureau report which may have changed the voting pattern in Florida (or other states) since the 2000 election? Anyone? Bueller? Democrats are toast in so many ways. Ha. |
| Posted by: Chris W. 2005-07-12 14:29 |
| #5 JFM - don't know if they will, but they can. NYT delivers out of state, too. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2005-07-12 13:20 |
| #4 They will bring their baggage but they will no longer be brainwashed by the NYT |
| Posted by: JFM 2005-07-12 11:59 |
| #3 I'm with Pappy on this one. Many will bring baggage with them and cause elections to be closer within each State. However, over the long haul, the Repubs benefit, as the libs don't tend to produce offspring, and the "Roe effect" (hat tip: Taranto at OpinionJournal) continues on. The election's will become closer, but the stakes (# of Electoral College votes) will get bigger. |
| Posted by: BA 2005-07-12 10:41 |
| #2 Nuts. It's not going to be that static politically. People tend to bring their baggage with them. Examples of political drift can be seen in Idaho, Montana and Arizona vis a vis the 'Californica Exodus', and in New Hampshire from the Massacusetts refugees. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2005-07-12 09:59 |
| #1 Not sure that the shift is entirely attributable to population movement. Part of it may be related to the fact that libruls usually bread below the replacement figure. Save the endangered moonbatus librulii species? I am a strict darwinist in this regard! ;-) |
| Posted by: Sobiesky 2005-07-12 09:49 |