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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Iran Threatens Azerbaijan With Missile, Air, and Artillery Attack |
| 2005-07-16 |
| In case of Baku's consent to the accommodation of American military bases in the republic, Iran plans to deliver a preventive missile strike on the territory of Azerbaijan, Jelal Muhammedi, a confidant of the new Iranian leader, said in his interview to the Azerbaijan newspaper, Mirror... It is highly probable that after Ahmadinejad's election, Muhammedi may become one of the key figures in formulating Tehran's policy towards Azerbaijan. Muhammedi claims that a sharp deterioration of Iran-Azerbaijan attitudes may occur in the near future for two reasons: accommodation of the US military bases in Azerbaijan and support by Baku of separatist moods in Iranian Azerbaijan. Muhammedi emphasized that in both cases Tehran is capable of taking not only adequate reciprocal measures, but also may be drawn to actions of a preventive character. What might be the Iranian reaction to Ilham Aliev's consent to place a US military contingent in the republic was mentioned above. Speaking about the destructive consequences of a missile blow, Muhammedi suggested imagining "how Baku will look after two missiles strike the area". He has no doubt that the missiles will reach their target in case of the conflict, and such confidence is not baseless at all. Tehran's military is much stronger then Baku's on each and every parameter. An extensive missile arsenal and several hundreds of warplanes allow Iran to deal a blazing air blow on the large cities of Azerbaijan. A common border, and the complete lack of any efficient system of antimissile and antiaircraft defense of the Azerbaijan army eases this task substantially. Moreover, judging by the equipment, staff, and level of preparation, the Air Forces of the Azeri republic are incapable of withstanding the Iranians. The common 611 km long border, allows Iran to subject the southern areas of Azerbaijan to massive artillery bombardments. In case of escalation of the conflict up to ground forces collisions, Baku also has no chance to resist. By the numbers, the Iranian Army and Pasdaran (not even counting the National Guard - Basij Resistance Forces) considerably surpass the Azerbaijanian armed forces (more than 900 thousand Iranian soldiers against 72 thousand Azeri). Also, Iranians are equipped much better technically then Azerbaijanians. The supreme command structure of the Iranian Army and Pasdaran has a rich operative experience acquired in the war with Iraq. As for Azerbaijanian officers, they proved themselves inadequate during the conflict with Armenia at the beginning of the nineties. The strategic arrangement of forces in the Southern Caucasus and around the Caspian Sea also is adverse for Baku. Aliev has no close ally with appreciable military potential in the region. But Tehran holds close relations with Armenia. In case the conflict breaks out, Tehran can be expected to grip Azerbaijan in a "vise " from the Southeastern, Southwestern and Western directions. Yerevan does not have to conduct any military actions; it is enough to increase the concentration of its armies on the Azerbaijan border. Counting upon the above listed strategic factors, experts on the Caucasus consider that given several days, the Iranians would manage not only to suppress the resistance of the Azerbaijan army completely, but also reach the capital of the republic. However, any such scenarios are purely theoretical. Baku, certainly, concedes to Tehran on every issue and parameter, but is protected by Ankara and Washington. Even if Iran would decide to strike Azerbaijan (which is improbable) the Americans would instantly interfere in the course of events. Though the leadership of the Azeri republic constantly increases its military expenditure (by the official data from about $74 million in 1997 up to $300 million in 2005) the true and only guarantor of Baku's security and safety is the United States. Accordingly, any "preventive measures" by Tehran may only provoke the Iranian-American conflict, which in turn is fraught with the most unpredictable consequences, not only for its participants, but also for the countries of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #7 Actually, a lot of their bravado, I think, can be traced to back in the days of the Shah, when the US tried to boost their morale as the first line of defense against the Soviet Union. Combine that with their own home-grown desire for "a place in the sun", like Japan had, prior to WWII, and their egos start writing checks their military can't cash. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-07-16 21:31 |
| #6 When your army fights Iraq to a draw after 8 long years, I'd be disinclined to engage in such chest thumping. Then again, I'm in relatively better control of my faculties then these assclowns seem to be. |
| Posted by: Raj 2005-07-16 20:19 |
| #5 Some more geopolitical titbits for you. While a large slice of Northern Iran is Azeri populated, perhaps as many 25 milion. The southern section of that narrow lowland strip has a large ethnic Persian (farsi speaking) population - probably a majority. The ajacent Caspian Sea is disputed and is believed to contain very large amounts of oil. The Iranians aint stupid. They would advance 50 to 100 Ks and stop and then try to annex the area, through a referendum or similar. The Armenian defacto annexation of western Azerbaijan, which the world has done nothing about is the example the Iranians will follow. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-07-16 20:05 |
| #4 Coincidentally I wrote a (unpublished) novel located in this area with a scenario not too different to this. This is the key phrase - support by Baku of separatist moods in Iranian Azerbaijan. You can divide the border into 4 sections going from East to West. A narrow lowland strip only a few Ks wide suitable for large scale troop movements, then impassible mountains, then semidesert with a large river on the border and difficult to access from both sides, then an Armenian controlled Western section. The reality is that the narrow strip of lowland is a chokepoint where aircraft/missiles could take out bridges over the rivers that run west to east. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-07-16 19:38 |
| #3 "How to Win Friends and Influence People, Mad Mullah Style" Is this where someone sez, "Go ahead, make my day..."? I'll wager this incessant and incredibly arrogant MM bluff and bluster is wearing very thin with everyone who figures they're in range and wearing a target. Hell, is there anyone they haven't threatened? I'll also wager that we would be happy to assist Azerbaijan with some appropriate materiel. Further, any one of these spear-rattling tantrums could get out of hand... Some people just don't know when to STFU. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-07-16 19:30 |
| #2 I wonder if Iran has assces to picture of Japanese cities taken at teh end of WW2? That moon scape should be instructive for them. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet 0’ Doom 2005-07-16 19:28 |
| #1 Give us an excuse to hit you Iran, ...PLEASE. |
| Posted by: mmurray821 2005-07-16 19:16 |