"I am Kirok!"
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| -Short Attention Span Theater- | |
| An asteroid, headed our way-NASA considering deflection mission | |
| 2005-07-26 | |
| As if the Yellowstone Super Volcano earthquake in Montana news weren't exciting enough for you today, here's one to top that! The good ole boys over at NASA have their eyes on a possible Armegeddon Asteroid. Near Earth Objects and all this article at least gives the consolation of a specific timeline, so I'll give the Yellowstone Super Volcano a few points for its unpredictability and higher odds of actually happening. Humans live in a vast solar system where 2,000 feet seems a razor-thin distance. Yet it's just wide enough to trigger concerns that an asteroid due to buzz Earth on April 13, 2029 may shift its orbit enough to return and strike the planet seven years later. The concern: Within the object's range of possible fly-by distances lie a handful of gravitational "sweet spots," areas some 2,000 feet across that are also known as keyholes. The physics may sound complex, but the potential ramifications are plain enough. If the asteroid passes through the most probable keyhole, its new orbit would send it slamming into Earth in 2036. It's unclear to some experts whether ground-based observatories alone will be able to provide enough accurate information in time to mount a mission to divert the asteroid, if that becomes necessary. So NASA researchers have begun considering whether the US needs to tag the asteroid, known as 99942 Apophis, with a radio beacon before 2013. Timing is everything, astronomers say. If officials attempt to divert the asteroid before 2029, they need to nudge the space rock's position by roughly half a mile - something well within the range of existing technology. After 2029, they would need to shove the asteroid by a distance as least as large as Earth's diameter. That feat would tax humanity's current capabilities. NASA's review of the issue was triggered by a letter from the B612 Foundation. The foundation's handful of specialists hope to demonstrate controlled asteroid-diversion techniques by 2015. Last Wednesday, representatives from the foundation met with colleagues at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to review the issue. The foundation's letter marks the first time specialists in the asteroid-hazard field have called for a scouting mission to assess such a threat. "We understand the risk from this object, and while it's small, it's not zero," says David Morrison, the senior scientist at NASA's Astrobiology Institute at the Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif. The call for a reconnaissance mission also illustrates how far the field of asteroid-hazard assessment has come. "Ten years ago, we would have been blissfully ignorant," says Donald Yeomans, who heads NASA's near-Earth object project at JPL. Today, at least five programs worldwide are hunting down near-Earth objects. NASA is well on its way toward achieving its goal of cataloging 90 percent of the near-Earth objects larger than 0.6 miles across by 2008. And it is devising ways to ensure that information about potential hazards reaches top decisionmakers throughout the government. Based on available data, astronomers give Apophis - a 1,000-foot wide chunk of space debris - a 1-in-15,000 chance of a 2036 strike. Yet if the asteroid hits, they add, damage to infrastructure alone could exceed $400 billion. When the possibility of the asteroid passing through two other keyholes is taken into account, the combined chance of the asteroid hitting the planet shifts to 1 in 10,000, notes Clark Chapman, a senior scientist with the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo. "A frequent flier probably would not want to board an airliner if there's a 1-in-10,000 chance it's going to crash," he says. The asteroid in question was discovered last June. Initially, it looked as though it might strike Earth in 2029. But additional observations eliminated that possibility. Instead the asteroid will come within 22,600 miles of Earth - just inside the altitude where major communications satellites orbit. The asteroid will be visible to the naked eye in the night skies over Europe and western Africa, where it will appear a bit dimmer than the North Star. But this estimated distance carries an uncertainty that spans several thousand miles either side of its expected path - a region of space that includes three gravitational keyholes. JPL's analysis will look at several factors. One involves estimating whether additional ground observations will be sufficient to resolve the question of whether the asteroid will pass through one of the keyholes. The asteroid belongs to a class known as Atens, which orbit the sun in less than a year and pass through Earth's orbit. Because Atens spend so much of their time in the direction of the Sun, observations from Earth are difficult. After next year, the next opportunity to gather data on the asteroid from the ground will come in 2012-2013. In addition, questions remain over how long a tagging mission - and if necessary a deflection mission - would take to plan and execute. If missions can be mounted in six years or less, NASA could postpone a decision to tag the asteroid until 2014. This would give astronomers time to incorporate their latest observations as they refine calculations of Apophis's orbit. But if a tagging mission took seven to eight years and a diversion mission took another 12 years, the case grows for launching the tagging mission sooner rather than later. Dr. Yeomans, the head of the near-Earth-object program at JPL, says the next step is to examine whether additional ground-based observations are likely to solve the collision riddle in a timely fashion. "I can't stress this enough: The overwhelming most-likely scenario is that radar and optical data this year and next or in 2012 and 2013 will completely remove the impact probabilities," he says. "If this is the case, why are we worried now? If it's a 1-in-15,000 shot and we come up a loser," there's still time to mount a tagging and a deflection mission, he says. Ah, the sweet smell of Armegeddon. But at least our odds are good.
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| Posted by:Slanter Gromoting9998 |
| #17 Based on available data, astronomers give Apophis - a 1,000-foot wide chunk of space debris - a 1-in-15,000 chance of a 2036 strike. I thought SG:1 killed off Apophis a while back. A shame really, he was a pretty nasty villain. |
| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2005-07-26 23:27 |
| #16 What we need is an Iludium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator. |
| Posted by: Eric Jablow 2005-07-26 22:57 |
| #15 This weekend I'm going to party like it's 2035! |
| Posted by: Dar 2005-07-26 21:27 |
| #14 If you're going to ram something into Mars - make it an ICE asteroid. Now for the asteriod in question... How about some gray mush nanobots to turn it into a dusteriord? |
| Posted by: 3dc 2005-07-26 20:21 |
| #13 damn Raj! Now how about a pic of his hot indian wife? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-07-26 19:45 |
| #12 Geez, no one thought of this one? "I am Kirok!" |
| Posted by: Raj 2005-07-26 19:09 |
| #11 While they're at it, I wonder if they might make use of the opportunity to slam the asteroid into Mars? Granted, the orbits might make that impossible, but then again, it might be done. It would accomplish several things of great scientific value, both in studying the effects of asteroid impacts as such, and digging a fresh, very deep hole through many geologic layers on Mars for us to investigate. This would be a very difficult mission. It would reaquire the use of thousands of Hindeburgh... Suddenly a large dawg interrupts the proceedings: Were you gonna ask if thousands of small Martian blimps were gonna be needed? That's mean. Humans should be nicer to each other. Besides helium would be to inefficent in a Martian atmospher. Hydrogen -1 is the key, which can only be made by little tiny....... we end this story with a drooling dawg. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-07-26 18:41 |
| #10 Lol, Pappy, I feel your pain! |
| Posted by: .com 2005-07-26 18:27 |
| #9 Safer to plant it into Jupiter. It might knock things loose on Mars and send those our way. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet 0’ Doom 2005-07-26 18:24 |
| #8 Is this where IToldYouSo should have made his entrance? Gee, thanks for the memory, .com. Why don't you just give me a paper cut and pour lemon juice on it while you're at it? LOL. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2005-07-26 18:17 |
| #7 Good question Moose. A major asteroid impact on Mars could have lots of scientific benefits, but may not be feasible with this asteroid. However, I like the idea. I think the deflection scenarios they cite in this article state that their potential planned slight nudge on the asteroid would be just that, only slight, and that any larger movement of an asteroid was impractical with current and estimated 2036 technological capabilities. A large enough dust cloud could potentially accelerate an engineered warming of the Martian atmosphere as well though, in any case we could use the opportunity to run some interesting models on terraformation of the martian surface. I'm with you, but rather than just crashing her down, depending on mineral content of the asteroid lets park that bad boy in Mars orbit and mine and process materials on or around Mars ofr commodity use in space and on earth. Maybe we could fling large chunks of the asteroid at the planet for such extraction or maybe do it in space, who knows what we'll actually be capable of by 2036? Will certainly depend on private sector innovation though, seems folks in the states are losing their passion for funding NASA adequately, maybe a decentralization of talent and effort is what it will take to spur the industry though. But whether or not this one crashes into Aunt Selma's house, its still a great excuse r opportunity to develop and test some technology that would no doubt benefit mankind in one way or another in the not so distant future. I'm sure the world would blame us for "aiming it at them" if we attempted a deflection and it went awry and hit somewhere other than in the US. Maybe North Korea, Iran, China, actually this wouldn't be so bad if we could localize it we could try with some smaller pieces between now and then. Maybe start by sending down a new "holy rock" for the Imams to stash behind the big black curtain at Mecca. Hot one, coming down. Heads up!Asteroid, the size of a bus, coming down on the Majic Kingdom. Surely a sign from the prophet himself! Could be even better than the rods from God, cause we don't have to haul these to space, they are there waiting to be picked up! EP |
| Posted by: ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding 2005-07-26 17:51 |
| #6 I'd like to know where it would hit on Earth (if it did). Sadly such a prediction could only be made at the last moment, but this thing isn't big enough to be a world killer and if it was going to hit, say, France, I'd tell them to call the UN and go to bed. ;) |
| Posted by: Laurence of the Rats 2005-07-26 17:33 |
| #5 ? We can move this thing if we start working on it today. If you strap thrusters to it you can move it. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet 0’ Doom 2005-07-26 17:31 |
| #4 Maybe we could just, ya know, steer it someplace. I have some suggestions if NASA's interested... |
| Posted by: tu3031 2005-07-26 17:25 |
| #3 Is this where IToldYouSo should have made his entrance? Say Doom! Lol. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-07-26 17:21 |
| #2 While they're at it, I wonder if they might make use of the opportunity to slam the asteroid into Mars? Granted, the orbits might make that impossible, but then again, it might be done. It would accomplish several things of great scientific value, both in studying the effects of asteroid impacts as such, and digging a fresh, very deep hole through many geologic layers on Mars for us to investigate. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-07-26 17:19 |
| #1 It's toooooooooo late! BushHitler has destroyed the planet with Abu Grab. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-07-26 16:54 |