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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | |
| NIE Review Finds Iran Far From Nuclear Bomb | |
| 2005-08-02 | |
The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but that "all options are on the table." The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence community views as credible indicators that Iran's military is conducting clandestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking those projects directly to a nuclear weapons program. What is clear is that Iran, mostly through its energy program, is acquiring and mastering technologies that could be diverted to bombmaking. | |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #17 Now wait a moment, this finding has instant credibility because it was based upon a "consensus" of idiots (I mean intelligence experts). The wacky WaPo always goes for the consensus, meaning that all those with foresight are automatically ruled out. |
| Posted by: Captain America 2005-08-02 12:56 |
| #16 Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof As contrasted with your three leaking sources who brought us the flawed estimates highlighted above. Do your sources have proof, sweetheart? Wodda dope! Hey! Isn't this Valerie's secret section? Maybe she's leaking classified information to get back at Bush? Or Wilson is making up stuff as he goes along? Sheesh! |
| Posted by: Bobby 2005-08-02 11:05 |
| #15 A Journalist who may or may not have her own agenda has not read the report. I assume it's highly classified. She interviews a few people willing to |
| Posted by: john 2005-08-02 10:29 |
| #14 Perhaps the only organization in the Federal government more dysfunctional than NASA is the CIA. These guys should look at what the military did after Vietnam to reconstitute itself as the world's premier military organization. It wasn't easy or quick, think Desert One and the fiasco at Grenada. But they stuck with it and it paid off. Go Goss, Go! |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-08-02 09:44 |
| #13 Khan's Grandfather. Runs in the family. |
| Posted by: Phumble Ebbomotch4624 2005-08-02 09:27 |
| #12 Oops, I stepped on you, Jackal. Great minds think alike? |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2005-08-02 09:19 |
| #11 And the USSR was 10 years away from having a nuclear bomb in 1948, but detonated their first in 1949. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2005-08-02 09:18 |
| #10 That's what they said about the USSR in the late 40s. Didn't turn out that way. |
| Posted by: Jackal 2005-08-02 09:08 |
| #9 The thing we've discovered is that the only way to discover the truth (and thus more closely correlate intel estimates to reality) is to invade the country and let the troops examine the evidence. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2005-08-02 08:06 |
| #8 Tenet and others were urged to educate the public and shape the debate into an intelligent discussion, but clearly opted not to do so. Too bad. It would have gotten in the way of their anonymous leaks to the press. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2005-08-02 07:25 |
| #7 Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, And if Russia or China or NORK or whoever sells it to them, then where are they in the process of designing and using a nuclear weapon? |
| Posted by: Spemble Achrinatus9967 2005-08-02 06:39 |
| #6 a quick google of Dafna Linzer shows she is an avid Bush blamer. |
| Posted by: 2b 2005-08-02 03:22 |
| #5 For me, Iran being a major supp of revolutionary Islam and Internat Terror is, by itself, a reason for mil action, regardless of whether it actually has a nuke bomb. Internat Terror is a diversified coalition, a congregate of collusory cells, persons, networks/orgs, and State govts - Dubya is absolutely correct in going after Govts that supp terror. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2005-08-02 02:40 |
| #4 Sock Puppet, I think you're right, though perhaps it's not just the Iraq NIE that is relevant background. Many -- most? -- intelligence estimates are wrong, which is why they're called estimates. Of course they have to write something down and hand it in at some point, but I would think after the UNSCOM episode (discovering Iraq was far ahead of estimate timetables and pursuing a much broader program than assessed) and then the AQ Khan episode (which potentially placed all proliferators far ahead of conventional timetables) the hedging on this particular item would be high as a t-wall in the Green Zone. One great failure of the administration in connection with the Iraq war and associated intelligence -- and directly in connection with the pre-emption tactic -- has been not to educate. Intelligence is unavoidably flawed and limited. Down-side surprises are harmless, but in matters of WMD and terrorism, up-side surprises are potentially catastrophic and therefore unacceptable. Thus, one must make judgements based on unavoidably flawed intel to cover the up-side surprises. Pre-emption is the chief tactic to achieve this prudent coverage. Simple common sense -- though each judgement call can go either way, and be horribly difficult. Tenet and others were urged to educate the public and shape the debate into an intelligent discussion, but clearly opted not to do so. Too bad. |
| Posted by: Verlaine in Iraq 2005-08-02 02:18 |
| #3 Editor note: This article was MUCH longer when I put the rest of it on Page 49. But p. 49 seems to have gone away. Sorry, Steve! |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2005-08-02 01:46 |
| #2 The people who did the NIE are gun shy. They were wrong before. Now they are super careful. Is this wrong? |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet 0’ Doom 2005-08-02 01:13 |
| #1 We begin bombing in five minutes. |
| Posted by: Raj Reagan 2005-08-02 01:10 |