EFL
 -- The accession of Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, who is crowned as King of Saudi Arabia tomorrow, may only delay a struggle for power in the Royal House of Saud. ``This is the largest royal family in the world and there will be a struggle as princes compete for positions of power,'' said Mai Yamani, a gulf region specialist at the London-based research center Chatham House. ``The big question is who will Abdullah appoint as his deputy -- it's the post they all want.''
| I think the big question is whether Abdullah's going to have enough time before pegging out to move his own kids and allies into positions of power. And whether he's dumb enough to take any helicopter rides or to go for a drive in the desert. |
Abdullah will be one of two octogenarians controlling affairs in the kingdom. Abdullah's half-brother, Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz, currently minister of defense and also in his 80s, will become Crown Prince. King Fahd, ruler of 23 years, died Aug. 1 in the capital, Riyadh.
... also in his dotage 80s... |
With Saudi Arabia holding the world's largest oil reserves, concern about the future direction of the kingdom helped drive oil prices to a record $62.30 a barrel on Aug. 1. Any reassurances from Abdullah and Sultan to western political and business leaders may be undermined as other royals dispatch their assassins jockey for position, said John Bradley, a Middle East historian. ``Saudi Arabia will see continuity under Abdullah but the issue of succession becomes serious now, bearing in mind that Abdullah and Sultan are themselves very old and are only a short- term solution,'' said Bradley, author of ``Saudi Arabia Exposed,'' in a telephone interview.
| That's pretty much a statement of the obvious. I think we mentioned it here yesterday... |
According to a report released Aug. 1 by research group Oxford Analytica, Abdullah has heart problems and is likely to be transitional ruler unlikely to fundamentally change the kingdom.
| He's already done probably as much as he's going to do, since he's been running thing ever since King Fod became a broccoli... |
The report also said the incoming Crown Prince Sultan has been treated for cancer.
| We keep hearing these cancer stories, but nobody ever seems to croak from it. Muammar was supposed to be in the terminal stages three years ago. Yasser was supposed to have it. |
Part of Fahd's legacy was to change the laws of succession in 1992, allowing for grandsons of the country's founder, Abdulaziz Ibn al-Saud to become king, Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.K., told reporters in London yesterday. The law decreed that the most capable prince would be selected as king by the Saud family, opening the way to a power struggle by removing the automatic nature of succession.
| "Most capable" can be translated as "last man standing"... |
``Sultan and other senior princes all have sons from more than one wife who are potential rivals for positions of power,'' Bradley said.
| Welcome to the Middle Ages where succession is still a contact sport |
Potential leaders include Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, 56, the son of the incoming crown Prince Sultan and former Ambassador to the U.S.; Prince Salman ibn Adbul Aziz, 71; Interior Minister Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz, 70, and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, 48, the world's fifth-richest man and largest shareholder in Citigroup Inc. Bandar and Alwaleed have extensive contacts with western business and political figures.
| The so-called "moderate" branch of the family tree. |
Prince Naif is a controversial figure, who Bradley doesn't believe the U.S. and other western nations would welcome as a contender to the throne. Shortly after the Sept. 11 2001 attacks on the U.S., Naif said he didn't believe Saudis were among the hijackers and that the attack was a Zionist conspiracy.
| Voted "Most likely to smother his brothers in their sleep" |
| ... and only half as bright as he thinks he is... |
As the most influential member in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia has led supply increases over the past few years, in a bid to satisfy a surge in world demand and benefiting from the sale of more barrels. It has also helped moderate demands for higher oil prices from other members of the group of 11 oil exporters, including Iran and Venezuela, aiming not to undermine demand for crude. ``I don't expect any change in policies, only continuity,'' Prince Turki al-Faisal said.
| I wouldn't expect any overt changes in the coming months, but I expect there will be a lot of activity in the background, to include a few untimely departures from this vale of tears — let's call it a spike in the number of auto and aircraft accidents... |
Bradley says the royal family must introduce additional social reforms to quell a population where the official unemployment rate is 25 percent and more than one-third of the population is under 14 years of age.
| Or crack down even harder, which is more likely under Naif. |
Abdullah had been in charge of day-to-day affairs in Saudi Arabia since Fahd suffered a stroke in 1996. Fahd's reign was marked by pro-U.S. policies, tense relations with Islamic clerics and an opening of the oil industry to foreign investment.
| But, odds are, he ain't going to keep living much longer at his age. |
Muhammad-Ali Zainy of the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies said future Saudi leaders must confront Islamic fundamentalists and may need to reduce the role religion plays in education. `They are already deep into Islamization, teaching people religion,'' he said in an interview. ``What really produced these fanatics and terrorists is too much focus on religion.''
Bandar was posted in Washington for 22 years and maintained close ties with the Bush family. President George W. Bush cited Bandar's ``charm, wit and humor'' and called him a ``tireless advocate for close ties, warm relations and mutual understanding between the United States and Saudi Arabia over 20 years,'' in a statement issued after his resignation from the diplomatic post July 21.
| Yeah, yeah, we know. So did every one else in Washington. |
The relationship between Bandar and the U.S. administration didn't lead to either country's intelligence service detecting the presence of 15 Saudi nationals in the U.S. in the months before Sept. 11, 2001. Those nationals joined with four other Islamic activists to carry out the hijackings.
Still, Bandar's experience and relationship to the current crown prince could give him an advantage among the younger rivals for the crown.
| The big question is, did all those years hob-nobbing in Washington dull his skills at the close quarter knife fighting now being played out |
Oxford Anayltica said the appointment of a ``second deputy prime minister'' to assist the crown prince will be a ``significant pointer'' in the direction of the kingdom. The person holding that position has traditionally become the next in line for crown princes, the report said. ``Two rival camps, the so-called reformers and the hardliners, are forming,'' Chatham House's Yamani said. ``If Abdullah can appoint a more open-minded younger figure, then there may be hope.''
"Mahmoud! I shall be calling on my half brother, Prince Ahmed. Fetch me my silken cord and the small bottle of 'special' seasoning!"
"Yes, effendi!"
"And... ummm... hire a new food taster. The last one died!" |
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