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| Hurricane Forecaster on Global Warming |
| 2005-08-19 |
| Meteorologist William Gray may be the worldâs most famous hurricane expert. More than two decades ago, as professor of atmospheric science and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, he pioneered the science of hurricane forecasting. Each December, six months before the start of hurricane season, the now 75-year-old Gray and his team issue a long-range prediction of the number of major tropical storms that will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin, as well as the number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes (with winds of at least 111 mph). This year, Gray expects more activity, with 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes. Four of them, he says, will be intense. More about hurrican forecasting at link. I wanted to share his perspective on global warming, especially the last answer. You donât believe global warming is causing climate change? G: No. If it is, it is causing such a small part that it is negligible. Iâm not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930s and â40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle â40s to the early â70s. And there has been warming since the middle â70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced. That must be a controversial position among hurricane researchers. G: Nearly all of my colleagues who have been around 40 or 50 years are skeptical as hell about this whole global-warming thing. But no one asks us. If you donât know anything about how the atmosphere functions, you will of course say, âLook, greenhouse gases are going up, the globe is warming, they must be related.â Well, just because there are two associations, changing with the same sign, doesnât mean that one is causing the other. With last yearâs hurricane season so active, and this yearâs looking like it will be, wonât people say itâs evidence of global warming? G: The Atlantic has had more of these storms in the least 10 years or so, but in other ocean basins, activity is slightly down. Why would that be so if this is climate change? The Atlantic is a special basin? The number of major storms in the Atlantic also went way down from the middle 1960s to the middle â90s, when greenhouse gases were going up. Why is there scientific support for the idea? G: So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thingâall these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more. Now that the cold war is over, we have to generate a common enemy to support science, and what better common enemy for the globe than greenhouse gases? Are your funding problems due in part to your views? G: I canât be sure, but I think thatâs a lot of the reason. I have been around 50 years, so my views on this are well known. I had NOAA money for 30 some years, and then when the Clinton administration came in and Gore started directing some of the environmental stuff, I was cut off. Wait a minute - I thought it was only Bushitler who ignored science that didn't agree with his personal agenda? I couldnât get any NOAA money. They turned down 13 straight proposals from me. |
| Posted by:Bobby |
| #8 Anonymoose, "There are tons of ironies surrounding hurricanes. One that impresses me is the effect of plankton blooms, that can increase surface water temperature by a degree or two over a wide area. This can raise a level 2 or 3 hurricane to a 4 or 5." No. You correlate unrelated things, or rather placing it in the linearity that simply is not there. Much of you say in the previous segment is based on mythology. "I heard a suggestion that a light, ultra-thin, refractive sheet could be deployed in space as a hurricane killer." We lack the proper volume of the space junk. Let's add some more... "It would not block sunlight, just refract it from such a distance away in space that it would have the same effect." Actually, it would probably create fireworks that you've never seen before. With a consequent destruction of the sheet. Same with "solar wind" sails. "A few square miles in area, it would drop water surface temperatures a few degrees in the direction of travel of the hurricane, in the late afternoon hours (think long shadows), and the temperature would stay down as the hurricane passed over the cooled area, strongly reducing its strength." This is based on the myth that huricanes are caused by temperature differentials. You are almost putting the cart before horse. "As a bonus, it could reduce surface water temperatures in a band around the Earth year round." Hahahaha! I like fairy tales for good night! |
| Posted by: Sobiesky 2005-08-19 23:09 |
| #7 T'aint it funny - the Enviros as a class ranked amongst the biggest supporters of the Clinton admin, then again for Gore, and later again as one of the biggest critics of Dubya's policies! How is it that well-credentialed, Left-beloved intellectuals/academics don't seem to be reading or scrutinizing any papers or books on the topic(s) they're protesting!? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2005-08-19 21:08 |
| #6 There are tons of ironies surrounding hurricanes. One that impresses me is the effect of plankton blooms, that can increase surface water temperature by a degree or two over a wide area. This can raise a level 2 or 3 hurricane to a 4 or 5. On the totally weird side, I heard a suggestion that a light, ultra-thin, refractive sheet could be deployed in space as a hurricane killer. It would not block sunlight, just refract it from such a distance away in space that it would have the same effect. A few square miles in area, it would drop water surface temperatures a few degrees in the direction of travel of the hurricane, in the late afternoon hours (think long shadows), and the temperature would stay down as the hurricane passed over the cooled area, strongly reducing its strength. As a bonus, it could reduce surface water temperatures in a band around the Earth year round. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-08-19 19:22 |
| #5 but in other ocean basins, activity is slightly down. In Western Australia we get an average of 3 Indian ocean cyclones (hurricanes) a year. In the last year we have had precisely none. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-08-19 18:22 |
| #4 I live in hurricane prone southern Rhode Island and properties destroyed in a Hurricane are typically not rebuilt. The property owner is compensated for the property but not granted a permit to rebuild. Sad irony, I'm a firefighter who fought a fire at my families beachfront property several years back. We were fortunate enough to save enough of the structure to get a remodeling permit had it been declared a total loss. We were out. |
| Posted by: Rightwing 2005-08-19 12:21 |
| #3 Good points, DB. Years ago, not much that was very expensive was built on the coast. Remember the beach bungalow? You didn't lose much when it blew away. Now with FEMA (read "your tax money" insurance, the destruction to the mansions and resort hotels IS uglier and more costly. |
| Posted by: SR-71 2005-08-19 11:10 |
| #2 "With last yearâs hurricane season so active, and this yearâs looking like it will be, wonât people say itâs evidence of global warming?" Yes, because the MSM writes the story first then, finds sources to back up their "Bring America Down" mentality. E.g. selfish politicians and anti-American atheist scientists. Any sane scientist will tell you that proper climate change study requires anomly that goes back thousands of years, not 40 or 50 years. An accurate thesis must eliminate the probability of naturally occurring cyclic weather phenomenon. Also, increased beach population and construction must be entered into the increased destruction equation, as negative equalization. |
| Posted by: Poison Reverse 2005-08-19 11:03 |
| #1 I read an article on another site yesterday that stated that hurricanes now are stronger than 30 years ago because there is a lot more destruction. Absolute bullshit. The reason there is more destruction is because there are a lot more buildings now. 30 years ago I frequented the coast between Panama City and Pensecola. I could drive for miles along empty beaches. Now there are no empty beaches, it's one long strip of hotels and condos. Any hurricane that hits along that stretch will cause a lot more destruction than 30 years ago. Junk science at work. This guy knows his stuff and was silenced because he didn't toe the politically correct line. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2005-08-19 10:21 |