Terrorism has reared its ugly head in the land of Rabindranath Tagore, Sri Aurobindo, Satyajit Ray and Pandit Ravi Shankar.In a single day earlier this month about 200 explosions that hit Bangladesh within a 30-minute period is cause for serious reflection upon the growing terror landscape in South Asia and its regional and global implications. With military precision and cold-blooded efficiency reminiscent of the deadly Mukti Bahini guerillas fighting for independence from Pakistan in 1971, bombs exploded almost simultaneously in 63 of the 64 districts of one of the world's most populous Islamic nations. Given the scale of the operation and the low casualty figures -- two dead and 100 injured -- unleashing death and destruction was obviously not the purpose of the detonations. Government buildings were the primary targets while Western and other institutions were spared.
Even for those who have long focused on the growth of Islamist extremism and terror in Bangladesh, the sheer scale and dispersal of the coordinated bomb blasts have come as a surprise. Indeed, recoveries of a number of unexploded devices, as well as arrests and the discovery of cottage "bomb factories" suggest that the numbers could well have been higher. Intriguingly, in Munshiganj, the single district that escaped the serial blasts, more than a hundred bombs were recovered from Baligaon village indicating that the hamlet could be the geographical headquarters.
To successfully conduct such an operation requires several thousand people using available technology. They also have to be trained, financed, transported, housed and provided with a secure communications network. The entire operation could have been executed using simple code within a given timeframe over cell phones.
What is hard to imagine is that intelligence agencies did not know something was afoot because the huge network required to pull off the bombings could hardly have gone been accomplished without telltale signs of an impending operation of magnitude. The Bangladesh Home Minister initially said that he had prior information. He subsequently changed the story furthering the common perception among most citizens that powerful interests are able to protect radical Islamist movements from arrest or scrutiny.
The dimensions of the operation might not imply technical support from outside Bangladesh, since they have a large enough educated workforce to provide the handful of minds required to master such an operation. Personnel, however, is another matter, notably for a covert operation.
Intelligence sources estimate that at least two persons would have been involved in the planting of each explosive device -- suggesting an operation mobilizing at least one 1,000. Significantly, just two hours after Prime Minister Khaleda Zia left for China on a five-day official visit, a bomb went off on the stairs inside the Airport.
Currently, no other nation has demonstrated a bombing campaign of this magnitude conducted by a domestic movement. None of the revolutionary movements in South Asia have been able to coordinate a similar operation. The exception is the Maoist forces in Nepal, which have taken over two thirds of the country and encircled the capital Katmandu at will. To put it into perspective, no known underground movement in Bangladesh has the capacity to take over state power, unless, of course, these bombs were meant to announce a newcomer, an old player shedding discretion, or the successful merging of different organizations.
However, thirty-five years ago, the professional Pakistan Army was only rarely able to out-think Bangladesh's Mukti Bahini guerillas fighting for independence, and rightly so. Their ranks were made up of Bangladesh's finest intellectual minds trained in commando operations by the Indian Army. These bombs resurrect a tradition that worked in the interest of India. This time round, has a "new" Mukti Bahini been convinced to deploy their talents first to seize domestic power, then let the Indians feel their bite before the rest of the world does?
Over the past years, Islamist extremist activities have been flourishing in Bangladesh's western districts, each sharing a border with the Indian state of West Bengal. States sharing borders with Myanmar have also witnessed significant terror activity attributed to the Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-BD) and its international partners, including Al-Qaeda. In addition, Sylhet in east Bangladesh, sharing a border with India's Assam state, has also seen Islamist terrorist violence, including the May 21, 2004 attack in which two persons were killed and the British High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Anwar Choudhury, was among the70 injured in a powerful bomb blast at the Hazrat Shahjalal Shrine.
The two main political parties, the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party alliance and the opposition Awami League, have publicly accused each other. Neither party can possibly benefit from such instability. The grass roots organizations of both parties are reportedly disorganized and not ready for campaigning in elections set for January 2007. In fact, the prospects of holding elections in such an environment appear dim.
Bangladesh has held three general elections since 1991 in a relatively free and fair manner. The political culture is embedded around the capital city of Dhaka. A growing urban middle class in the capital has benefited from the success of the ready-made-garments industry and the retail and real estate boom in the capital, fueled partly by allegedly illegal diversion of aid money. However the general population has failed to reap the benefits of foreign aid or export earnings.
The usual suspects have been identified -- including the banned Islamic movement, Jamaet-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). Political violence, bombings and assassinations are not new to Bangladesh but the sheer audacity, reach and synchronization of the bombings have shaken most citizens out of their complacency. This appears to them to be an omen of more violence. Given the unsettled political situation, which could worsen this winter, more bombings, are likely.
There are other, most disturbing aspects of this coordinated operation.
Was this a final initiation rite to qualify a cadre of elite terrorists? If so, will their military competence be restricted to Bangladesh or shared worldwide, like its precursor in Afghanistan? And who are the inheritors of the Mukti Bahini's highly cerebral tradition of deadly efficiency, what is their agenda, who runs them and for what purpose?