With Israeli settlers gone and troops heading out, Gaza stands at a crossroads.  One way could lead to peaceful Palestinian statehood, the other to chaos. Much will hinge on whether Palestinian leaders can impose order where armed factions now reign, and whether a doubtful Israel does its bit by opening Gazaâs borders to create jobs and investment as an alternative to violence.
| My guess is that the Paleos are so wedded to terrorism and gang warfare that they can't make the transition to civilization. The Paleo Authority — such government as they have — is too afraid of the hard boyz to control them, and the hard boyz' leadership is too wedded to its tactical aims to have any room for strategic thinking. Israel may get around to opening its borders to create jobs, and the hard boyz will come through with the honest laborers, which'll result in the border being closed down again. Ten years from now, Gaza will still be a dog's breakfast, and they'll still be blaming the hated Zionists for their woes. |
Tiny Gaza, packed with 1.4 million Palestinians, will gain crucial living space and economic assets in the sprawling tracts vacated by 8,500 settlers. After soldiers go in late September, Palestinians will control a whole territory for the first time. âGaza will be under the international spotlight and the Palestinian Authority will have a real challenge to make the most of the opportunity,â said Interior Ministry spokesman Tawfiq Abu Khoussa.
| Either that, or hose it big time, with the eyes of the world upon you. |
Whatever happens could be critical for the ultimate Palestinian goal of building a state that also brings in the West Bank â 10 times the size. The United States has made clear that it wants Palestinians to sustain calm and launch good government in Gaza before embarking on a peace âroad mapâ toward a Palestinian state. The most fundamental task in Gaza will be tackling a culture of factional chaos that sprouted under the divide-and-rule regime of the late Yasser Arafat and spread during the revolt against Israeli occupation. âThe spread of arms and forms of chaos acceptable before the pullout cannot be accepted after it. All Palestinians must now show self-restraint to succeed in Gaza,â Abu Khoussa said.
| And we know how good they are at showing self-restraint... |
President Mahmoud Abbas has formed a special 7,500-strong police force which, with Egyptian training, is to secure empty settler zones against feared takeovers by motley armed factions. He hopes this will set a precedent for law and order in Gaza. But Abbas has shied from trying to forcibly disarm militants for fear of kindling civil war. Instead he has tried to draw gunmen into security forces and other mainstream institutions to swing them behind peace steps. But militants led by the grass-roots Islamist Hamas, which is sworn to destroying Israel, vow not to submit to what they see as US and Israeli pressure on Abbas to shut them down. âIsraeli pressures will eventually lead to renewed violent resistance to Zionist occupation,â predicted Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri, alluding to West Bank settlements. âSo there is a clear national interest to keep our arms.â |