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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Russia-Chicom war games viewed as prep for NORK collapse |
| 2005-09-01 |
| From East-Asia-Intel, subscription req'd. China and Russia have been emphatic in denying that their recent, first-ever joint military exercise was targeted at neighboring countries. Hokay, I was worried about that one. Now everything is clear. However defense officials in Tokyo and Seoul said one purpose of the massive war games was to prepare contingency responses to the eventual collapse of the North Korean regime. Which is prudent if the Chicoms and Russians do not want a free and independent Korea at their doorstep. [snip] China and Russia held their first joint military exercises, code-named Peace Mission 2005, from Aug. 18 to Aug. 25. The one-week maneuvers, which involved 10,000 troops from the two countries, started in Vladivostok in Russia's Far East bordering North Korea's northeast region, and later moved to China's Shandong Peninsula, west of North Korea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the joint exercise was not targeted at any third party, concerned the interests of any third country, or posed a threat to any country. He said the drills were meant to boost both countries' capabilities in responding to possible threats to the region, including attempts by terrorists to acquire powerful weapons. Sounds like a trendy excuse. But military and defense officials in Japan and South Korea said the Russia-China games rehearsed the joint occupation of North Korea in case of political turmoil in the troubled communist country. "The militaries of China and Russia intended to use their joint drills to examine their capabilities to occupy North Korea in case of its collapse ahead of joint forces between the United Sates and South Korea," a Japanese Defense Agency official was quoted in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun daily. Russia and China said the military drills were based on a scenario in which the two countries, acting under UN authority, aimed to stabilize a country plunged into violence by ethnic strife. This could refer to possible conflicts between North Korea and U.S.-backed South Korea. Typical Communist statement. "The scenario could be used in the event of sudden disappearance of Kim Jong-Il from the political leadership," the Japanese defense official said. Nam Joo-Hong, a strategy expert at Kyonggi University in Seoul, said the Russo-China war games were largely aimed at boosting their joint capabilities in responding to possible turmoil in North Korea and Taiwan. The military drills were originally planned to take place in China's western region to combat Islamic extremism and separatism in Central Asia, Nam and other analysts said. But later the venue was changed to China's Shandong Peninsula across the Yellow Sea from North Korea and Russia's Vladivostok, which borders North Korea. "The two nations changed the sites for their military exercise to boost their joint efforts to counter the U.S.-led allies in East Asia," said Kim Sung-Han, an analyst at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a government think tank in Seoul. Our ally in fighting global terrorism, Mother Russia. According to other sources in Seoul, China's People's Liberation Army had moved more than 30,000 troops to border areas with North Korea last month in an apparent exercise to stem the inflow of North Korean refugee-seekers or to occupy the country in case of emergency. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld downplayed the war games as not threatening, but said Washington was monitoring the exercises. Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said the Navy was "very interested" in the military exercise, particularly in what systems the parties used and how they handled command-and-control issues. He naturally would be. The U.S. Pacific Command sent EP-3 surveillance aircraft and two Navy surveillance ships to waters near the exercises. And fighter escorts nearby, I would hope. |
| Posted by:Alaska Paul |
| #11 SW: I think Moose has an insight that bears thought. I could certainly see, if the NKors looked like they were about to collapse (how could you tell? ed.) that the Chinese could take action to prevent a nightmare scenario: a) nukes get loose from the NKors (Chinese don't want them used to destabilize the 21st, Chinese, Century) and b) humanitarian crisis that explodes at their door-step. If the North Korean government looks like it's going to collapse, the ROK's are going to go charging in.* They're not going to take kindly to Chinese occupation of a land that Chinese historians have repeatedly staked out as Chinese territory. The Chinese are not going to spend billions and become the potential target of a nuclear attack by invading North Korea, just to pull out and let the South Koreans take over. If the Chinese move in, North Korea will become another Chinese province. Adding a few million ethnic Koreans to the millions of existing ones in China won't exactly change China's demographics. It's silly to talk about destabilization being a problem for a Chinese century. Uncle Sam destabilized the entire world by forcing the European empires to dissolve* during the post-WWII era, thereby creating a Third World and removing a major barrier to Communist expansion. * The ROK's aren't a pushover - they lost 5,000 men in Vietnam - more than any other American ally in the post-WWII era. * This is in part why the European powers weren't real keen on helping Uncle Sam fight the Communists in Vietnam - on the one hand, no colonies, no interests, and on the other, the American role in destroying what they had spent much blood and treasure gathering did not exactly endear Uncle Sam to Europeans. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 20:58 |
| #10 Remember kids, theres a reason the exercise was done on the shendong penninsula just across the water from North Korea and not Hainan island, which is a much more likely place to simulate an attack on Tawian. Theres more to this story than people are letting on. Secretary Rice and several others have eluded to September being very important. Now, has anyone heard anything about the troops in the exercise going home? or are they still wandering about tsingtao buyiung trinkets? |
| Posted by: Frank Martin 2005-09-01 20:53 |
| #9 I think Moose has an insight that bears thought. I could certainly see, if the NKors looked like they were about to collapse (how could you tell? ed.) that the Chinese could take action to prevent a nightmare scenario: a) nukes get loose from the NKors (Chinese don't want them used to destabilize the 21st, Chinese, Century) and b) humanitarian crisis that explodes at their door-step. And it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that we'd go along with it, particularly if there was an under-the-table agreement that the Chinese intervention would be temporary. Indeed, the Chinese could, after a suitable interval, hand off to an 'international stabilization party' that would include them, us, the Rooskies and the SKors (Japan would fund but not attend, given Korean sentiments). Then after another suitable interval the SKors would quietly build a confederation between them and the North. It has advantages for all, and I think the Chinese are quite pragmatic -- the Korean peninsula isn't vital to them as long as it doesn't become a liability. Just a thought. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2005-09-01 19:34 |
| #8 A: There is a third, and viable alternative here. The Chinese, especially, might move into Nork with the assistance of Russia, and at the request of the US. While they're at it, the Chinese might also send troops to Afghanistan and Iraq at Uncle Sam's request. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 17:48 |
| #7 Captain America---I find quite a bit of grain amonst the chaff in east asia intel. I try to post those articles that have some strategic bearing on what may be going on in East Asia. They seem to have quite a number of articles on N/S Korea that have some meat to them. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2005-09-01 17:32 |
| #6 Alaska Paul: Excellent article, the posts from East-Asia-Intel seem pretty insightful. |
| Posted by: Captain America 2005-09-01 16:47 |
| #5 There is a third, and viable alternative here. The Chinese, especially, might move into Nork with the assistance of Russia, and at the request of the US. First of all, the North has a "Maginot line" of guns pointed South, and may possibly have nuclear weapons. Only China has the manpower to swoop in there and secure both before they could be used. US air and sea power could blast away, but just couldn't *guarantee* the same results. The US couldn't even save Seoul from destruction. Afterwards, China would immediately notify the US and Russia they had secured the nukes, and that everybody could militarily calm down. Then the interesting part begins. China's best interests could be served not by maintaining control over Nork, but by immediately launching reunification talks with the South. The reasons for doing so are first, China doesn't want a huge influx of starving Norks flooding into China. If they turn the North over to the South, China wins big time. No refugees and huge money. South Korea pays for the reunification and reconstruction of Nork, not China. China has a new best friend in the unified Korea, a wealthy trading partner with huge profits to China. The US most likely no longer has any remaining interest on the peninsula, and can leave. Much to the joy of China. Korea already does things "the Chinese way" culturally, and there really are no serious issues between the two. China also has significant border controls so nothing too outrageous, too disturbing, is going to flood North into China. Unified Korea remains capitalist and democratic. And, by being friendly with China, indirect pressure is exerted on Taiwan to join the club. What the US gets out of the deal is to no longer spend money on an increasingly resentful South, to redeploy its military to where it is more useful, and to finally be rid of a Stalinist with nukes and missiles, without South Korea being ruined in the process. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-09-01 16:44 |
| #4 The big question is what happens if North Korea detonates a nuke on top of the invading Chinese or Russian forces - without consulting their South Korean allies - and the Chinese nuke Seoul and other South Korean cities in response. Does the nuclear umbrella still apply in this instance? Are we obligated to nuke China in response? I think this is what I'll call the Guns of August scenario - where unexpected events take on a momentum of their own. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 15:43 |
| #3 TW: Separately, if China and Russia want North Korea, let them have it. Which might possibly end the romance South Korea has going with their totalitarian brothers. I don't think ROK will tolerate foreign forces ruling North Korea. And the relationship that the South Koreans are cultivating with North Korea has nothing to do with any admiration for totalitarianism - it is purely a ethno-racial thing.* In fact, a Sino-Russian venture like this may be the exact reason that Roh Moo-hyun is cultivating ties with the North Koreans - it will help to at least have shaken hands with their military leaders if the Russians or the Chinese decide to add to their holdings on the Korean peninsula, and the ROKs and NKPA forces conduct joint operations against Sino-Russian forces. Can ROK rely on American help to fight off the Chinese and the Russians? I would argue that they can't, since our brief on the peninsula is to keep ROK sovereign, not help prevent North Korea from being annexed by foreign forces. * It's the same reason that Uncle Sam leaving the protracted multi-party war in the Congo alone, but would jump in with both feet if anything like that were to break out in say, Yugoslavia. Wait a minute - we did jump in with both feet. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 15:38 |
| #2 including attempts by terrorists to acquire powerful weapons. Gee whiz, where on earth would terrorists get such weapons from, in that part of the world? Separately, if China and Russia want North Korea, let them have it. Either they will begger their economies feeding the locals, or the world will be forced to notice that they allowed the locals to die off even more quickly than President Kim has been doing. Which might possibly end the romance South Korea has going with their totalitarian brothers. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2005-09-01 15:10 |
| #1 A Chinese-Russian attempt at the occupation of North Korea would immediately breathe new life into the US-ROK alliance. The question is whether it is worth a single GI's life to prevent North Korea from becoming Chinese/Russian territory. South Korea may unilaterally invade, perhaps with support from North Korean forces, if the Chinese and the Russians get involved. What if Kim uses his nukes against the Chinese and the Russians - either on their units or on their cities? This is the ultimate nightmare scenario - if we get involved. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 14:41 |