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| Terror Networks & Islam |
| No consensus on al-Qaeda threat |
| 2005-09-02 |
| Nearly four years after 9/11, no consensus exists among experts on al Qaeda–either within or outside the government–about the magnitude of the threat posed by the terrorist organization, according to a surprising new report by the Congressional Research Service. The 11-page study, "Al Qaeda: Profile and Threat Assessment," is by one of the government's veteran terrorism analysts, Kenneth Katzman, a CRS specialist in Middle Eastern affairs. At the heart of the debate is a failure to agree on what America's archenemy even looks like today, the report notes. Katzman challenges conventional wisdom, widely touted by counterterrorism experts today, that al Qaeda as an organization has grown so weak that its leadership is incapable of plotting and executing major terrorist attacks. What remains of al Qaeda, according to this view, serves largely as an inspiration to "loosely affiliated cells and groups that subscribe to al Qaeda's ideology but have little, if any, contact with remaining al Qaeda leaders." But Katzman warns that other experts believe that al Qaeda the organization is far from finished and that it may well be capable of another 9/11. The failure to capture the group's top two leaders, Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has left intact its paramount chief and top ideologue. At the same time, the U.S.-led war in Iraq is widely believed to have boosted jihadist recruitment and fostered the growth of a potent al Qaeda branch in that country–one that may extend its reach internationally. Also troubling: the fate of a trio of top al Qaeda operatives thought to be in Iran. "If these three senior figures are able to communicate with bin Laden and Zawahiri," writes Katzman, "a major portion of the core of the al Qaeda leadership as it existed on September 11, 2001, is still operating and possibly in control of ongoing operations." Indeed, the report warns that al Qaeda's leadership may well have played a direct role in the July 7 bombings of the London subway and other recent attacks by local affiliates. This point was underscored by the announcement yesterday by Al Jazeera television that it has a new videotape in which al Qaeda takes credit for the London attacks. The tape reportedly contains statements by Zawahiri and includes the will of one of the dead bombers. The failure to accurately assess al Qaeda's threat may make it difficult to emphasize the right strategies to combat it, Katzman concludes. If al Qaeda today is marginal to the global Islamist threat, the best response may be to address regional conflicts, promote democracy and practice public diplomacy. But if al Qaeda remains a powerful force, concentrating efforts on crippling the organization are a priority. Released during the August recess to members of Congress, the report has gone unnoticed by the news media. CRS, an arm of the Library of Congress, serves as a kind of nonpartisan think tank for members of Congress, who can request studies on various topics. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |