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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Kuwaiti paper claims Syria ready to cut deal with France over Hariri investigation
2005-09-19
Salt requirement probably in the Debka range — we're talkin' Arab press on a roll...
The chief of the UN team investigating the murder of former Premier Rafik Hariri, Detlev Mehlis, told the Syrian government that he will question Maher Assad, the Syrian President's brother, "which provoked disturbance in the government and was considered as an offense to Syria's sovereignty," according to Kuwait's As-Siyassah newspaper yesterday.
That's common in countries where there are some people above the law, especially when investigators are getting close to the truth...
The paper said "Mehlis has informed the government of his intention to interrogate eight top Syrian officials, including Maher Assad," the head of the Syrian Republican Guard and intelligence. It added that in a bid to gain France's support, Syrian President Bashar Assad sent military intelligence chief Assef Shawkat to Paris "to offer the French officials an interesting deal," which he believed would discharge Syria from its suspected involvement into Hariri's death.
The Frenchies are, of course, always the weak link in any kind of diplomatic initiative. Everybody with a hyphen in his name thinks he's Talleyrand or Richelieu...
The paper said Shawkat met with his French counterpart and an official from the bureau of French President Jacques Chirac. According to the newspaper, the deal included a Syrian pledge to "deploy 50,000 along the Syrian-Iraqi borders to help maintain security, to withdraw the remaining and secret intelligence officials from Lebanon, to hold diplomatic relations with Israel, recognize it as a state and renounce its calls for regaining the Golan Heights." The pledge also included "extradition of terrorists detained in Syrian prisons," added the newspaper.
Toldja Assad will be gone by 9-11-06. But a.) I'm not convinced he's offered that — it'd be a surrender to the U.S. if he did; and b.) even if he offered, it's doubtful he'd stay bought. For one thing, the Medes and the Persians have too many of their own connections to the internal Syrian levers of power...
In return, Assad would be discharged from his suspected involvement in Hariri's killing.
If that's the deal, the evidence is just there, waiting to be picked up.
The Syrian president has been accused by opposition politicians of being behind Hariri's murder. These views were compounded after the Paris-based Intelligence Online specialized newsletter has said on its internet Web site that Hariri managed to record the elimination threat made by Assad at their last face-to-face meeting in the Syrian capital on a spy pen provided by a Western secret service.
This is where the salt requirement spikes. That sort of thing does happen, here and there, but the incidences are few and far between and seldom as dramatic is the dictator openly threatening the rebellious pol...
Hariri had provided copies of the threat to U.S. President George W. Bush, Chirac and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf shortly before he was assassinated, said the newsletter that specializes in intelligence affairs.
What we had at the time was that Hariri and Jumblatt had received warning that one of them was in danger of being bumped off. That warning was reported to have come through the UN, my guess would be based on information from the French intel service. That's their stomping grounds.
The Assad-Hariri meeting was held in Damascus a week before Syria forced the Lebanese Parliament virtually at gunpoint to extend President Emile Lahoud's term in office for three extra years on September 3.
Even though Tom Clancy wouldn't use such a plot device because it'd be too obviously melodramatic, that's actually what happened...
"It is useful for you to know that Lahoud's term will be extended no matter what. ... I shall not allow you to replace him with anyone else," the recording pen quoted Assad as telling Hariri.
No doubt in a sinister, kind of Peter Lorre-ish voice. While dressed in a Nehru jacket, petting his cat...
"You have to bear in mind that I am capable of destroying Lebanon, you included. If I am forced to leave Lebanon, I will leave it a pile of rubble. Your ally Walid Jumblatt must realize the fate awaiting him. The death of his father is the best lesson for him."
Villains talk like that. Real-life pols don't, not even Middle Eastern hereditary dictators...
Intelligence Online said the pen-recorder was probably made available to Hariri by the French foreign security service DGSE, when he told Chirac that he feels threatened.
No doubt they called on M to have Q fix one up for them. If you fiddled with it, it would explode. There was also a secret button that would turn it into a snare drum for disguise purposes...
As-Siyassah's report comes as a Syrian newspaper has accused the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt of benefiting from Hariri's murder. "Jumblatt was, along with his servants, the planner of all that happened [in Lebanon] and the first to benefit from the assassination of Rafik Hariri," the weekly economic newspaper Al-Iktissadiyya said of the former Damascus ally yesterday.
On the other hand, the Syrian regime does tend to act like comic book bad guys, doesn't it?
The newspaper also claimed that Jumblatt was responsible for a backlash against Syrians in Lebanon that followed Hariri's killing, which Syrian officials say killed 37 workers and wounded 280 people. "Walid Jumblatt has a problem with the Syrian people, who will never forgive those who incite and encourage the killing of Syrian citizens," it said. Syrians "will not forget the Syrian blood that flowed in Lebanon because of [Jumblatt's] racist declarations, heinous insults and public incitements [to violence] against all that is Syrian in Lebanon," the newspaper said. "Jumblatt is not welcome in Syria," it added.
Posted by:Fred

#11  "to hold diplomatic relations with Israel, recognize it as a state and renounce its calls for regaining the Golan Heights."


Give up Golan. Yeah right. In other news, President Bush submitted a plan for national health insurance, saying Hilary Clintons didnt go far enough, Howard Dean called for the US to adopt a flat tax in place of the current system, and Sharon and Abbas nearly came to blows, each insisting the other take Jerusalem.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2005-09-19 14:11  

#10  "He has a wife, you know..."
-- Pontius Pilate
Posted by: mojo   2005-09-19 13:33  

#9  Has anyone else noticed the resemblance Bashar has to a younger De Gaulle at Vichy? Maybe the French would put him up in Paris. This actually sounds more like a melodramatic plot of Hezbollah to get rid of him so they can take over. Blame it on Assad and someone, anyone would take care of the problem.
Posted by: Danielle   2005-09-19 12:03  

#8  I say take the deal. When the US verifies all parts are in place and working (which will never happen) we don't go after Assad. It would be worth it just to see Syria acknowledge Israel and give up on Golan. Must be damn good evidence if they are even talking about a deal like this.
Posted by: NYer4wot   2005-09-19 11:34  

#7  Dan,

That was why I had to add the "on the other hand." If the report is true, if the tape exists, Assad should definitely change his alias to "Abu Dumbshit."
Posted by: Fred   2005-09-19 10:53  

#6  syria cuts lots of deals. they just don't stick to 'em.
Posted by: PlanetDan   2005-09-19 09:54  

#5  But Baby Assad has no money---how's he going to bribe the French?
Posted by: gromgoru   2005-09-19 08:59  

#4  The Frenchies are, of course, always the weak link in any kind of diplomatic initiative.

Minor correction.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2005-09-19 07:35  

#3  I am surprised how far this investigation has gone and conclude they must have some pretty damming evidence. I wouldn't discount a tape of Assad making threats.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-09-19 00:31  

#2  "Is there anybody in the Middle East who doesn't have an alias?"

I don't. Really.
Posted by: Abdullah bin Jihad abu Ramadan al Andalus   2005-09-19 00:16  

#1   No offense Fred, but the argument that the alleged statements can't be true because nobody talks like that may not necessarily hold water in the Middle East. Look at all these al-Qaeda communiques, or how Qadaffi acts, for instance.

I'm guessing the love of melodrama comes with the tendency towards authoritarianism, rather like fascination with secret identities and assumed names among jihadis. Is there anybody in the Middle East who doesn't have an alias?
Posted by: Dan Darling   2005-09-19 00:05  

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