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Africa: Horn
Somalia heading towards civil war
2005-09-19
How do you conduct one during anarchy?
A worsening political crisis threatens to plunge Somalia back into war and open a new era of humanitarian suffering, experts say.

Trust collapsed between the two opposing wings of its divided government many months ago, triggering a mainly rhetorical struggle for power as both sides squabbled over where in the failed state their administration should be based.

That development failed to stimulate a forceful international response, due to growing disarray among interested foreign powers over how to handle the Horn of Africa country.

But recent events have taken emotions inside President Abdullahi Yusuf's government to new levels of acrimony, and foreign powers will find it hard to remain aloof if warlords start settling their disputes through armed force, Somalis say.

Worried analysts point to movements of pro- and anti-Yusuf militias, a huge increase in arms imports, assassinations of high profile Somalis in Mogadishu, the failure of a disarmament project in the capital, and increased activity by militant Islamists seeking to exploit a deepening power vacuum.

"The ill-will of the protagonists has brought our people to the brink of another bloody war," wrote elder statesman and former Prime Minister Abdirazak Haji Hussen in a paper circulated among Somalia analysts.

"Recent militia movements in the central region and reportedly from Ethiopia, and in Mogadishu, are clear signals that something ominous is about to unfold.

"I alert the world community to brace itself for another catastrophic humanitarian situation and a flood of refugees."

If the country tumbles deeper into anarchy, the only winners are likely to be warlords skilled at thriving on conflict and militant Islamists who have adroitly used the political crisis to carve out a bigger role in Mogadishu politics, experts say.

The government has been recruiting fighters across the country in recent weeks in what looks to many like the prelude to an attack on bases held by some cabinet ministers critical of Yusuf, many of whom are based in Mogadishu.

Yusuf, on good terms with regional power Ethiopia, said he would persuade rather than force his critics, who include some Mogadishu warlords and powerful businessmen, to cooperate.

But critics say the attempt by Yusuf, 70, to build a force is consistent with his past as a provincial warlord who has never shown flair for the diplomatic deal-making needed to build alliances among Mogadishu's fractious clan militias.

Ethiopia, Somalia's historic foe, denies giving Yusuf military help, but witnesses have reported Ethiopian officers helping train Yusuf's forces in several places in recent weeks.

Yusuf's opponents -- warlords and Islamists -- have reacted by reorganizing their own militias to form a united front strong enough to deter what they see as Yusuf's bid to impose his rule.

"Abdullahi Yusuf's militarist approach to reconciliation has produced an opportunistic solidarity among warlords in Mogadishu," said Somali analyst Abdi Ismail Samatar.

Some dismiss the effort to create a common front as a marriage of convenience to defend lucrative businesses including ports, airports, checkpoints, drug smuggling and weapons trading.

But so big are the spoils, the alliance could well last as long as it takes to rebuff any attack by Yusuf, experts say.

Yusuf's opponents want him and his prime minister, Mohamed Ali Gedi, to come and govern from Mogadishu. But Yusuf, whose political base is north-central Somalia, is working temporarily from provincial towns as he feels the capital is too risky.

Earlier this year the U.N. Security Council declared that any hostile military action by any party would be unacceptable.

But no major foreign government has bothered to repeat that message consistently at a senior level, partly because there is no consensus on how to restore the peace process, experts say.

Italy, China and Ethiopia are seen as closely allied to Yusuf. Eritrea, and some Arab states, are seen as allied to the Mogadishu group. Other major powers want to hold back funding for the government until it can agree where it should be based.

"It is incomprehensible that the international community is inattentively watching the two factions prepare for war," said Samatar.

Somalia has been without a central government since warlords ousted former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. Most of Somalia has since been carved up between rival militias and hundreds of thousands of people have died from famine and war.

Any conflict would trigger yet more suffering, Somalis say.

The Food Security Analysis Unit, a project of the European Union and U.S. government, predicts the lowest cereal harvest in a decade in southern Somalia this year thanks to poor rains.

It said one million Somalis, including 377,000 displaced people, urgently needed food to stay alive. "The entire southern part of Somalia (is) on alert status due to unsolved tensions within the government and reports of military build-ups," it said. "If widespread combat were to ensue it would have a devastating effect on human lives and livelihoods."
Posted by:Dan Darling

#26  Which is the long way round of saying that of course you are right, Mrs.D. I think I'm a bit younger than you, but I think your statement will hold to at least the 2nd or 3rd generation. :-(
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-09-19 22:28  

#25  The problem is, a tipping point of the population has to insist on being civilized; otherwise outside help just makes things worse. Look how many millenia it's taken Afghanistan and Iraq (and whoever planned to mention Babylon might remember it was successful as a conquering power, but not as an empire).
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-09-19 22:25  

#24  The problem is, Mrs. D, we've been lifting fingers. It's like pouring dye in the river -- the Blue Danube is still brown.
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-09-19 22:20  

#23  Phil, How much of Uganda, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe were encouraged by foreign powers? Perhaps you could say that it was Africa's misfortune to be liberated during the cold war after which it became a board of pawns, but that only explains so much. I suspect that before I die we will have seen all of sub-saharan Africa descend to a level of barbarity unseen there since the 17th century. And no one anywhere will lift a finger.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-09-19 20:03  

#22  Could be just the thing for that new MOAB/FAE test site that the military has been looking for.
Posted by: remoteman   2005-09-19 19:46  

#21  So there is some good stuff there, Phil, but mostly I think the boyz with gunz just like fighting -- typical old style bully-boys.
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-09-19 18:50  

#20  Per the CIA Factbook:

Resources: uranium and largely unexploited reserves of iron ore, tin, gypsum, bauxite, copper, salt, natural gas, likely oil reserves

Geographic note: strategic location on Horn of Africa along southern approaches to Bab el Mandeb and route through Red Sea and Suez Canal
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-09-19 18:48  

#19  I have a serious question for a sec:

How much of this situation is being encouraged by foreign powers?
Posted by: Phil Fraering   2005-09-19 18:06  

#18  Somehow this news fails to disquiet me.
Posted by: Scott R   2005-09-19 17:38  

#17  This f%%ckup is brought to courtesy of the United Nations.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-09-19 17:19  

#16  Once there were two cats from Somalia (Kilkenny)
Who each thought there was one cat too many.

They fought and that fit,
They scratched and they bit,

Until except for their nails,
And the tips of their tails,

Instead of two cats,
There weren't any.
Posted by: Ulomonter Uleack2228   2005-09-19 15:01  

#15  "It is incomprehensible that the international community is inattentively watching the two factions prepare for war," said Samatar

You.... want colonialism? Hey buddy: your nation, your problem. We Americans sure as hell didn't do this to you.
Posted by: Secret Master   2005-09-19 14:44  

#14  So long as there's a plentiful qat supply, none of the participants will give a damned who they're shooting.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2005-09-19 13:14  

#13  At least a civil war would bring some measure of organization and focus to the customary and usual daily random bloodletting.
Posted by: MunkarKat   2005-09-19 12:01  

#12  My Give a Damn's busted
Posted by: SuzyQ   2005-09-19 11:48  

#11  ...foreign powers will find it hard to remain aloof if warlords start settling their disputes through armed force, Somalis say.

If that's a threat, it...ummmmmmmmmmmmm...ain't working.
Posted by: tu3031   2005-09-19 11:43  

#10  foreign powers will find it hard to remain aloof if warlords start settling their disputes through armed force, Somalis say.

The Somalis think too highly of themselves.
Posted by: Pappy   2005-09-19 11:19  

#9  Civil war in a location of total anarchy? Jeeze Louise. If it were true, then it would a step up from total anarchy. This might be good news. [/sarcasm]
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2005-09-19 11:12  

#8  Nice ScrappleFace title!

Best solution here is to turn Somalia into a Theme Park for civil war; think EuroDisney for treachery, violence and armed thuggery. Maybe Somalia will get some of the adventure tourist trade. Jihadis and jihadee-wanna-bes get somewhere to play without annoying the rest of us. Ethiopia can be turned into a parking lot for the park, giving them something approaching a national economy. And the Somalis can continue to kill each other. It's a win-win situation for all!
Posted by: SteveS   2005-09-19 10:38  

#7  Was has it been up until now? Maybe they'll succeed in killing each other off this time and we won't have to hear about them any more.

Posted by: Jackal   2005-09-19 09:22  

#6  humanitarian suffering???
Posted by: gromgoru   2005-09-19 08:56  

#5  How will they know when it's started?
Posted by: Mrs. Davis   2005-09-19 08:43  

#4  I have run out of care. The care well has run dry.The dog ate my care....
(To quote the great James Lileks)
Posted by: Sgt. Mom   2005-09-19 08:40  

#3  Hmmmmmmm...civil war in Somalia? Sounds serious...
Posted by: tu3031   2005-09-19 08:33  

#2   "I alert the world community to brace itself for another catastrophic humanitarian situation and a flood of refugees."

I'm through caring. Go cry to the Europeans.
Posted by: JerseyMike   2005-09-19 07:57  

#1  I feel like I should care....
Posted by: Scooter McGruder   2005-09-19 03:05  

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