High turnout is expected at Iraq's constitutional referendum this month, a senior election official said on Sunday, although insurgents will likely attack on the day and voting will be difficult in several areas. More than 14 million Iraqis are registered for the Oct. 15 vote, which will determine whether a draft constitution, drawn up over the past four months and meant to unite the country's increasingly divided society, is approved by the people. If the referendum passes, then the constitution will come into force ahead of a general election in December."There is an enthusiasm to vote. Even in the last month we have registered one million more people," Farid Ayar, one of Iraq's seven electoral commissioners, said in an interview. "There will be attacks on the day, but I don't think it will be worse than we saw in the January elections," he told Reuters at his fortified office in Baghdad. "What can the insurgents do that's worse? There are already car bombs every day."
In the run-up to the first post-Saddam Hussein election held in January, insurgents carried out hundreds of attacks. Turnout in one province was barely 2 percent as voters stayed home either because of a boycott by Sunni Arabs or out of fear of violence. There is no breakdown of the religion of those registered to vote, but registration has grown in Iraq's three predominantly Sunni Arab provinces since January's election, figures show. Those provinces are key for those opposed to the constitution.
Ayar said there would again be challenges for some voters, particularly in Anbar, a predominantly Sunni province west of Baghdad where several towns and cities are essentially in the hands of guerrillas. "It is going to be difficult to open polling sites in some Anbar towns, like Hit and Haditha, really difficult," he said. "The people there want to vote but the insurgents are going to prevent them. We will perhaps find ways to have them vote in other towns nearby, which we can do, we have the ability."
U.S. forces are currently engaged in a new offensive in several towns in the far west of Anbar, near the Syrian border, trying to rid them of guerrillas before the referendum. Over the past two weeks, the United Nations, which has a team of advisers helping the Electoral Commission plan the plebiscite, has printed 5 million copies of the draft constitution and distributed them around the country. The final text of the document may change in the coming days, however, if Iraq's parliament agrees to some additional clauses designed to appease the Sunni Arab minority, which believes the current wording favours the Shi'ites and Kurds, who dominate the government and largely drew up the constitution. Ayar said there would not be enough time before Oct. 15 to reprint and redistribute any modified text, but announcements would be made on television -- the medium by which most Iraqis get their information -- informing people of any changes. "It's not perfect, but this is Iraq," Ayar said.
The ballot papers for the referendum, 20 million of them, printed on special paper in Austria, have been delivered and electoral workers are ready to set up 6,000 polling sites across Iraq's 18 provinces. The ballot asks voters in Arabic and Kurdish: "Do you agree to Iraq's draft constitution?" and has two boxes at the bottom, "Laa" (No) on the left and "Na'am" (Yes) on the right. According to the rules, if two thirds of voters in three or more of the 18 provinces vote "No", then the constitution is defeated, even if the majority of voters say "Yes".
It has still not been determined whether the benchmark is two thirds of those who vote, or of registered voters, a higher threshold. Ayar said a decision would be made soon, and it would likely make the benchmark two thirds of those who vote. While many Sunni Arab politicians oppose the constitution and are encouraging followers to vote "No", it is expected that the referendum will pass. An opinion poll published this week showed nearly 80 percent of voters would say "Yes". Already politicians of all stripes are turning their attention to the elections in December, when Sunni Arabs hope to improve on their poor showing in January, when the boycott left them with barely any seats in parliament. "The referendum is important, but already everyone is talking about December, and that is what we are preparing for," said Ayar. "That will be the real true test."