Israel expects the findings of an international investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri to prove extremely embarrassing for Syria and put President Bashar Assad's regime in a difficult situation, government sources said Sunday.The sources added that senior American officials, in recent conversations with their Israeli counterparts, have expressed interest in Israel's assessments of Assad's possible successors, asking who Israel thought could replace him and still maintain Syria's stability. American officials said that their impression from these conversations was that Israel would prefer to have a weakened Assad, vulnerable to international pressure, remain in power, and is unenthusiastic about the possibility of a regime change in Syria.
The Israelis' impression was that America's main concern is the flow of terrorists into Iraq via Syria, rather than the threat posed by the Syrian-backed Hezbollah organization in Lebanon. But Washington, like Jerusalem, is eagerly awaiting the results of the Hariri investigation, and will not decide what to do about Syria until the findings have been published.
The UN-appointed special investigator, Detlev Mehlis, is supposed to deliver his report to the Lebanese government and the UN Security Council on October 12, and the latter is slated to discuss the report on October 25. However, diplomatic sources predicted Sunday that Mehlis would ask for more time to complete his work.
| He did. |
According to the Israeli sources, Jerusalem has yet to hold a serious discussion about the possible consequences of the Hariri investigation and the changes that could take place in Syria's government as a result. But under the current circumstances, they said, it is hard to see who could replace Assad other than another strongman of the current regime, and such a change would only push Syria into adopting more extremist policies.
| How about sponsoring a revolution, and letting the people figure out what to do? Radical idea. |
Suspicion has focused on Syria ever since Hariri was killed on February 14. Two weeks ago, Mehlis visited Damascus to question Syrian officials about the killing, and earlier, he had four former senior members of the Lebanese security services, which had close links to Syria, arrested on suspicion of involvement in the assassination.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told Haaretz on Sunday that he is "definitely concerned" about the situation on the northern border. "[Security Council] Resolution 1559, which has not been fully implemented, must be implemented," he said, referring to the resolution's demand that Lebanon disarm all its militias. "Part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is in Lebanon, and the Syrians have not yet despaired of controlling Lebanon; they are doing it via Hezbollah, along with the Iranians. The Syrians are also engaged in training terrorists who make their way to operations in Iraq."
Sharon reiterated that he opposes resuming diplomatic talks with Syria. "Israel should not take steps that would undermine the American effort to apply pressure on Syria," he said. Asked whether negotiations could resume if a new government took power in Damascus, he replied: "My position regarding the Golan is well known, and I have clarified it many times." Sharon wants the Golan Heights to remain in Israel's hands, whereas Syria says that peace is impossible without the return of the Golan.